by Team Del Genio
Sunday, Apr 30, 2023The Golden State Warriors opened as a small road favorite of 1 point by the oddsmakers for Game 7 of their opening round series with Sacramento. The market responded by betting the Kings to a favorite of 1 to 1.5 points by tip-off time. We thought this was a great opportunity to take the Warriors.
Golden State had successfully closed out a playoff series in nine of their previous ten opportunities when playing at home before Game 6 against the Kings in Round One of their Western Conference playoff series. Perhaps that game gave them a false sense of confidence on Friday. The Warriors shot a season-low 37.2% from the field in an embarrassing 118-99 upset loss despite being installed as a 6.5-point favorite by the oddsmakers in that game. The defending NBA champions may be down, yet they were not yet out. We expected the veteran core of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green to respond with an outstanding effort in Game 7. Golden State had covered the point spread in five of their last six games after getting upset by a division rival. They had covered the point spread in five straight games after losing to a division rival on their home court. The Warriors had covered the point spread in eight of their last twelve playoff games when facing elimination. In revenge spots when they lost by double-digits to their opponent in their previous game against them, they had covered the point spread in twenty-one of their last thirty-one games.
Sacramento extended this series to a seventh game yet this team would be making a mistake in presuming they won the series by winning Game 6 and getting one more game back at home. While Harrison Barnes had playoff experience in his time with the Warriors, most of these players lack significant playoff experience. The Kings had not been to the playoffs since 2006 before this series. This team had covered the point spread only once in their last seven games after an upset win on the road by double-digits. De’Aaron Fox was dealing with his fractured finger so it may be too much to ask for him to single-handedly lead his team to victory by outshooting Curry and Thompson. Domantas Sabonis had been a surprising liability in this series. In his 206 minutes on the court, the Kings are getting outscored by 27 points yet when he is off the court (82 minutes), they are outscoring the Warriors by 32 points. Sacramento only shot 40.4% from the field in Game 6 so it would be inaccurate to suggest they took it to champions. Golden State simply could not make baskets. The Kings deserve some of the credit, yet they were a team that ranked 25th in the league in defensive efficiency in the regular season.
Sacramento did get this game at home yet they have covered the point spread just once in their last five games in front of their home fans. Excluding the 2020 postseason played on a neutral court in the bubble, home teams had covered the point spread just three times in the last thirteen Game 7s in the NBA playoffs.
The Warriors responded with a resounding statement in a 120-100 victory. They held the Kings to 42 points in the 2nd half. Curry proved himself the most valuable player on the court by scoring 50 points.
Bettors that thought Sacramento was poised to dethrone the champions and that home-court edge would give them a big advantage had it wrong. Once again, the wisdom of the oddsmakers in installing their initial line was proven right. And the Team won their NBA Underdog of the Month on Golden State to finish their month of April in the NBA!
Good luck - TDG.
Golden State had successfully closed out a playoff series in nine of their previous ten opportunities when playing at home before Game 6 against the Kings in Round One of their Western Conference playoff series. Perhaps that game gave them a false sense of confidence on Friday. The Warriors shot a season-low 37.2% from the field in an embarrassing 118-99 upset loss despite being installed as a 6.5-point favorite by the oddsmakers in that game. The defending NBA champions may be down, yet they were not yet out. We expected the veteran core of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green to respond with an outstanding effort in Game 7. Golden State had covered the point spread in five of their last six games after getting upset by a division rival. They had covered the point spread in five straight games after losing to a division rival on their home court. The Warriors had covered the point spread in eight of their last twelve playoff games when facing elimination. In revenge spots when they lost by double-digits to their opponent in their previous game against them, they had covered the point spread in twenty-one of their last thirty-one games.
Sacramento extended this series to a seventh game yet this team would be making a mistake in presuming they won the series by winning Game 6 and getting one more game back at home. While Harrison Barnes had playoff experience in his time with the Warriors, most of these players lack significant playoff experience. The Kings had not been to the playoffs since 2006 before this series. This team had covered the point spread only once in their last seven games after an upset win on the road by double-digits. De’Aaron Fox was dealing with his fractured finger so it may be too much to ask for him to single-handedly lead his team to victory by outshooting Curry and Thompson. Domantas Sabonis had been a surprising liability in this series. In his 206 minutes on the court, the Kings are getting outscored by 27 points yet when he is off the court (82 minutes), they are outscoring the Warriors by 32 points. Sacramento only shot 40.4% from the field in Game 6 so it would be inaccurate to suggest they took it to champions. Golden State simply could not make baskets. The Kings deserve some of the credit, yet they were a team that ranked 25th in the league in defensive efficiency in the regular season.
Sacramento did get this game at home yet they have covered the point spread just once in their last five games in front of their home fans. Excluding the 2020 postseason played on a neutral court in the bubble, home teams had covered the point spread just three times in the last thirteen Game 7s in the NBA playoffs.
The Warriors responded with a resounding statement in a 120-100 victory. They held the Kings to 42 points in the 2nd half. Curry proved himself the most valuable player on the court by scoring 50 points.
Bettors that thought Sacramento was poised to dethrone the champions and that home-court edge would give them a big advantage had it wrong. Once again, the wisdom of the oddsmakers in installing their initial line was proven right. And the Team won their NBA Underdog of the Month on Golden State to finish their month of April in the NBA!
Good luck - TDG.
