by Hollywood Sports
Thursday, Feb 29, 2024The so-called “sharps” were on the San Francisco 49ers in the 2024 Super Bowl— but, like the public, the sharps are wrong about half the time. The sharps were on the Ravens against the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game, they were on Philadelphia in last year’s Super Bowl, and they were on Washington against Michigan in the College Football National Championship Game — just to name a few recent results.
We were on Kansas City — the Chiefs were our side for our 2023-24 NFL Game of the Year. Our reasoning was rewarded with Kansas City’s 25-22 victory. I concluded at the time that the sharps and the computer models were failing to appreciate the improvements Kansas City made on the offensive side of the ball as they entered crunch time this season. Frankly, since losing wide receiver Tyreek Hill in free agency two years ago, the Chiefs had been reconfiguring their offensive attack. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes went through a period when he was struggling against two-high safety shell concepts that took away explosive plays. He figured that out last season in time to win a Super Bowl with wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster stepping up as a reliable complementary option to tight end Travis Kelce. The team let Smith-Schuster go in the offseason with the idea that it was time for their cadre of young wide receivers to now step up. Then the dropsies took place to the frustration of head coach Andy Reid and Mahomes.
One of the decisions Reid made in the run-up to the playoffs was to give up on Kadarius Toney — and that was addition by subtraction. Rookie Rashee Rice has emerged as the number one wideout option — in his three postseason games, he has caught 20 passes from 25 targets for 223 yards and one touchdown. Marquez Valdes-Scantling has become the deep-threat third option — as he demonstrated in the upset win against Buffalo. Kelce was incredible in the AFC Championship Game against Baltimore. Isiah Pacheco is being leaned on even more — in his last six games, he has averaged 21.8 touches per game and 98.8 total Yards-Per-Game. He is being used more in the passing game with 21 targets and 20 receptions in his last six contests. The play of the two new starting tackles on the offensive line has been a disappointment all season — but Mahomes has learned what free-agent signees Donovan Smith and Jawaan Taylor can and cannot do and has adapted. Reid was keeping Kelce in to block often this season to his frustration — but the blocking has been better lately allowing the future Hall of Fame to run more pass routes.
It was chip time now after reaching the Super Bowl again— so I was confident that the Chiefs would be 100% dialed in for this game. Often, the reigning Super Bowl champs suffer a letdown the next season. This team was different — they suffered their growing pains early in the season after losing the opening night game to Detroit. This group had faced adversity — and overcome it. Along the way, this team had found a new identity. So, rather than expecting any lessening of intensity as the defending champions, I will repeat: it was chip time.
Despite only gaining 319 total yards against the Ravens, they controlled the time of possession by being on offense for 37:30 minutes. Tom Brady won more than one Super Bowl content to keep the opponent’s offense off the field. And in their triumph against Buffalo, the Chiefs only had the ball for 22:57 minutes on Sunday — but their offense was as explosive as it has been all season as they generated 7.68 Yards-Per-Play and gained 361 total yards to outscore the Bills (and it should have been even more points if not for Mecole Hardman’s fumble in the end zone touchback in the second half).
This year’s Chiefs team possessed the best defense in the Mahomes era — they went into the Super Bowl holding their opponents to 294.7 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 16.8 Points-Per-Game. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo was somehow still underrated despite him attempting to win his fourth Super Bowl as a defensive coordinator going back to the chip he won as the DC for the New York Giants against a Brady-led Patriots team in 2008.
They faced a San Francisco team that had good underlying numbers — but what if they were being propped up from enjoying a relatively easy schedule involving mediocre NFC teams? In hindsight, Dallas and Philadelphia did not appear to be at the same level as the cream of the crop in the AFC. Three of the Niners’ five losses were against teams from the AFC. The Lions emerged from the ashes this season — and they outplayed the 49ers in most of the NFC Championship Game. Detroit outgained the Niners by 29 net yards — and it took reckless fourth down play-calling by head coach Dan Campbell to breathe life into this San Francisco team to draw the proverbial inside straight necessary to rally from a 17-point halftime deficit to steal that game. The Lions generated 442 yards of offense against what was considered an elite 49ers defense.
And then there is Brock Purdy. I think those of us who have handicapped every single Purdy game going back to his days at Iowa State have a unique perspective about him. He’s got talent — but he has a long history of disappointment in big games going back to his Cyclones career. No, I don’t think he should be awarded the MVP this season. But let’s assume his best comp is Tom Brady — yet he is just in Year Two of his trajectory to match the future seven-time Super Bowl winner. Brady was considered a “game manager” in his second season as a pro. In 2024, Purdy versus Mahomes appeared to be a mismatch — and it was Mahomes making big plays down the stretch while Purdy missed on some wide-open receivers in the second half of the Super Bowl. I had always appreciated Purdy’s sneaky mobility — but that was no longer any secret after he ran for 48 yards against the Lions with his legs being the secret weapon to the offense in the second half of that game. Spagnuolo revealed after the Super Bowl that he assigned two defensive players to act as spies to guard against his scrambling skills that played such an important role in their comeback victory against Detroit.
Take away the lucky Brandon Aiyuk tipped catch for that pivotal 51-yard game in the second half of that game — and Purdy only completed 19 of 31 passes for 216 yards against a bad Detroit pass defense that had allowed 346.2 passing Yards-Per-Game in their previous five games. Purdy processes plays quickly — and he understands and executes the sophisticated Kyle Shanahan offense. But he still tends to throw too many of his passes to the right side of the field — and he bails out too quickly to his left. Spagnuolo would be all over that — especially with two weeks to prepare. Lamar Jackson seemed likely to win the MVP award this season — but Spags made the world remember Jackson’s mediocre playoff history completely frustrating him in the AFC Championship Game.
No offense to the San Francisco coaching staff or their defense — but I concluded that Kansas City had the edge in both coaching and with their defensive unit. The 49ers had the better skill position players — but then there was still the Mahomes versus Purdy matchup to consider. Even if Purdy was as good as his most vocal defenders insist, it was another net disadvantage in this matchup. The 49ers were outscoring their opponents by +10.4 Points-Per-Game going into the Super Bowl — but the Chiefs have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games in the second half of the season against teams outscoring their opponents by +6.0 or more PPG.
We also correctly took the Under in this game in our 25* NFL Non-Conference Total of the Year. Those results made it three straight Super Bowls where we swept the side and total.
Best of luck — Frank.
We were on Kansas City — the Chiefs were our side for our 2023-24 NFL Game of the Year. Our reasoning was rewarded with Kansas City’s 25-22 victory. I concluded at the time that the sharps and the computer models were failing to appreciate the improvements Kansas City made on the offensive side of the ball as they entered crunch time this season. Frankly, since losing wide receiver Tyreek Hill in free agency two years ago, the Chiefs had been reconfiguring their offensive attack. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes went through a period when he was struggling against two-high safety shell concepts that took away explosive plays. He figured that out last season in time to win a Super Bowl with wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster stepping up as a reliable complementary option to tight end Travis Kelce. The team let Smith-Schuster go in the offseason with the idea that it was time for their cadre of young wide receivers to now step up. Then the dropsies took place to the frustration of head coach Andy Reid and Mahomes.
One of the decisions Reid made in the run-up to the playoffs was to give up on Kadarius Toney — and that was addition by subtraction. Rookie Rashee Rice has emerged as the number one wideout option — in his three postseason games, he has caught 20 passes from 25 targets for 223 yards and one touchdown. Marquez Valdes-Scantling has become the deep-threat third option — as he demonstrated in the upset win against Buffalo. Kelce was incredible in the AFC Championship Game against Baltimore. Isiah Pacheco is being leaned on even more — in his last six games, he has averaged 21.8 touches per game and 98.8 total Yards-Per-Game. He is being used more in the passing game with 21 targets and 20 receptions in his last six contests. The play of the two new starting tackles on the offensive line has been a disappointment all season — but Mahomes has learned what free-agent signees Donovan Smith and Jawaan Taylor can and cannot do and has adapted. Reid was keeping Kelce in to block often this season to his frustration — but the blocking has been better lately allowing the future Hall of Fame to run more pass routes.
It was chip time now after reaching the Super Bowl again— so I was confident that the Chiefs would be 100% dialed in for this game. Often, the reigning Super Bowl champs suffer a letdown the next season. This team was different — they suffered their growing pains early in the season after losing the opening night game to Detroit. This group had faced adversity — and overcome it. Along the way, this team had found a new identity. So, rather than expecting any lessening of intensity as the defending champions, I will repeat: it was chip time.
Despite only gaining 319 total yards against the Ravens, they controlled the time of possession by being on offense for 37:30 minutes. Tom Brady won more than one Super Bowl content to keep the opponent’s offense off the field. And in their triumph against Buffalo, the Chiefs only had the ball for 22:57 minutes on Sunday — but their offense was as explosive as it has been all season as they generated 7.68 Yards-Per-Play and gained 361 total yards to outscore the Bills (and it should have been even more points if not for Mecole Hardman’s fumble in the end zone touchback in the second half).
This year’s Chiefs team possessed the best defense in the Mahomes era — they went into the Super Bowl holding their opponents to 294.7 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 16.8 Points-Per-Game. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo was somehow still underrated despite him attempting to win his fourth Super Bowl as a defensive coordinator going back to the chip he won as the DC for the New York Giants against a Brady-led Patriots team in 2008.
They faced a San Francisco team that had good underlying numbers — but what if they were being propped up from enjoying a relatively easy schedule involving mediocre NFC teams? In hindsight, Dallas and Philadelphia did not appear to be at the same level as the cream of the crop in the AFC. Three of the Niners’ five losses were against teams from the AFC. The Lions emerged from the ashes this season — and they outplayed the 49ers in most of the NFC Championship Game. Detroit outgained the Niners by 29 net yards — and it took reckless fourth down play-calling by head coach Dan Campbell to breathe life into this San Francisco team to draw the proverbial inside straight necessary to rally from a 17-point halftime deficit to steal that game. The Lions generated 442 yards of offense against what was considered an elite 49ers defense.
And then there is Brock Purdy. I think those of us who have handicapped every single Purdy game going back to his days at Iowa State have a unique perspective about him. He’s got talent — but he has a long history of disappointment in big games going back to his Cyclones career. No, I don’t think he should be awarded the MVP this season. But let’s assume his best comp is Tom Brady — yet he is just in Year Two of his trajectory to match the future seven-time Super Bowl winner. Brady was considered a “game manager” in his second season as a pro. In 2024, Purdy versus Mahomes appeared to be a mismatch — and it was Mahomes making big plays down the stretch while Purdy missed on some wide-open receivers in the second half of the Super Bowl. I had always appreciated Purdy’s sneaky mobility — but that was no longer any secret after he ran for 48 yards against the Lions with his legs being the secret weapon to the offense in the second half of that game. Spagnuolo revealed after the Super Bowl that he assigned two defensive players to act as spies to guard against his scrambling skills that played such an important role in their comeback victory against Detroit.
Take away the lucky Brandon Aiyuk tipped catch for that pivotal 51-yard game in the second half of that game — and Purdy only completed 19 of 31 passes for 216 yards against a bad Detroit pass defense that had allowed 346.2 passing Yards-Per-Game in their previous five games. Purdy processes plays quickly — and he understands and executes the sophisticated Kyle Shanahan offense. But he still tends to throw too many of his passes to the right side of the field — and he bails out too quickly to his left. Spagnuolo would be all over that — especially with two weeks to prepare. Lamar Jackson seemed likely to win the MVP award this season — but Spags made the world remember Jackson’s mediocre playoff history completely frustrating him in the AFC Championship Game.
No offense to the San Francisco coaching staff or their defense — but I concluded that Kansas City had the edge in both coaching and with their defensive unit. The 49ers had the better skill position players — but then there was still the Mahomes versus Purdy matchup to consider. Even if Purdy was as good as his most vocal defenders insist, it was another net disadvantage in this matchup. The 49ers were outscoring their opponents by +10.4 Points-Per-Game going into the Super Bowl — but the Chiefs have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games in the second half of the season against teams outscoring their opponents by +6.0 or more PPG.
We also correctly took the Under in this game in our 25* NFL Non-Conference Total of the Year. Those results made it three straight Super Bowls where we swept the side and total.
Best of luck — Frank.
