by Hollywood Sports
Friday, May 31, 2024Going into Game Five of the Eastern Conference Finals, Florida had outplayed the Rangers in this series despite it being deadlocked at 2-2. If not for overtime losses in Games Two and Three, the Panthers could be attempting to wrap this series up tonight — or it could already be over.
The most dominant aspect of this series had been Florida’s forechecking which has allowed them to dominate puck possession and shot attempts. In Games Three and Four, the Panthers outshot New York by a 197-87 margin pure shot attempts — and by a 77-46 margin shots on target (that were not blocked by a player). Florida had generated 33 High Danger Chances in the last two games while the Rangers have only 14 High Danger Chances. Overall, the Panthers had produced 7.59 expected Goals (xG) in Games Three and Four — and they had held New York to only 3.88 xG in these two games.
Florida’s play on defense has been outstanding throughout the postseason. Going into Thursday’s Game Four, they lead all teams in the postseason in expected Goals Allowed (xGA) — and they had given up the fewest High Danger Chances. They had also given up the fewest Power Play goals in the playoffs as well.
What was encouraging for the Panthers going into Game Five was their Power Play. After going 0-3 in Game One, they had scored in five of their last 12 Power Plays against the Rangers. They rank second in the postseason in Power Play goals. They rank third in High Danger Chances generated and third in the postseason in Corsi-For Percentage.
I expected Florida to put their foot on the accelerator in this crucial Game Five. The Panthers had won 40 of their last 61 games after winning their last game. They had also won 23 of their last 30 games after a win at home — and they had won 10 of their last 14 games after a victory at home by one goal. They had scored seven combined goals in their last two games — and they have won 34 of their last 50 games after scoring three or more goals in their last two games. Florida had also been very good when playing away from home. The Panthers had won 21 of their last 29 road games in the second half of the season — and they had won 13 of their last 19 games on the road in the playoffs in the last two years.
New York’s underlying metrics in these playoffs are underwhelming. They went into Thursday’s game ranked 14th in Corsi-For Percentage, ninth in expected Goals Percentage, and last of the final four teams in expected Goals For Percentage. They are last of the final four teams in Power Play goals. They were not getting production from some key players — Mike Zibanejad and Chris Kreider have yet to register a point. Adam Fox may be trying to play through an injury — and he was shaky in Game Four. The Rangers had lost 12 of their last 19 games at home after a loss by one goal. They had also lost 8 of their last 11 games at home after losing in overtime in their last game. Furthermore, New York had lost 5 of their last 8 games when the playoff series was tied — and they had lost 4 of their last 5 fifth games in a playoff series.
The Rangers have overcome getting outplayed at even strength with strong play from their special teams. They want into Game Five ranked third in the playoffs on the Power Play. Even better, they have scored five shorthanded goals in the postseason — and Kreider broke his pointless streak by scoring a shorty at the 2:04 mark of the second period. But the Panthers responded just over six minutes later when Gustav Forsling scored at the 8:21 minute mark of the period. Anton Lundell then gave Florida the lead midway through the third period with his goal. Sam Bennett added an empty netter at the 18:08 minute mark of the third period. Alexis Lafreniere cut the deficit in half for the Rangers with fifty seconds left — but the Panthers held on to take the game by a 3-2 score.
When an NHL playoff series is tied at 2-2, the winner of Game Five goes on to win 78.8% of the time (231-62). Florida outshot New York by a 36-27 margin in Game Five as they continue to outplay the Rangers in most situations fueled by their dominant forecheck. With the books listing the Panthers as a money-line favorite in the -165 range, I will be passing on the side for a potential featured play since the price is higher than my -150 price threshold in the NHL (and MLB). And if New York pulls off the upset on the road, the odds change significantly with them hosting a Game Seven back at home at Madison Square Garden.
But the informal Game Five rule did reward the team that has been playing better overall hockey in this series, despite the 2-2 tie in the series.
Best of luck — Frank.
The most dominant aspect of this series had been Florida’s forechecking which has allowed them to dominate puck possession and shot attempts. In Games Three and Four, the Panthers outshot New York by a 197-87 margin pure shot attempts — and by a 77-46 margin shots on target (that were not blocked by a player). Florida had generated 33 High Danger Chances in the last two games while the Rangers have only 14 High Danger Chances. Overall, the Panthers had produced 7.59 expected Goals (xG) in Games Three and Four — and they had held New York to only 3.88 xG in these two games.
Florida’s play on defense has been outstanding throughout the postseason. Going into Thursday’s Game Four, they lead all teams in the postseason in expected Goals Allowed (xGA) — and they had given up the fewest High Danger Chances. They had also given up the fewest Power Play goals in the playoffs as well.
What was encouraging for the Panthers going into Game Five was their Power Play. After going 0-3 in Game One, they had scored in five of their last 12 Power Plays against the Rangers. They rank second in the postseason in Power Play goals. They rank third in High Danger Chances generated and third in the postseason in Corsi-For Percentage.
I expected Florida to put their foot on the accelerator in this crucial Game Five. The Panthers had won 40 of their last 61 games after winning their last game. They had also won 23 of their last 30 games after a win at home — and they had won 10 of their last 14 games after a victory at home by one goal. They had scored seven combined goals in their last two games — and they have won 34 of their last 50 games after scoring three or more goals in their last two games. Florida had also been very good when playing away from home. The Panthers had won 21 of their last 29 road games in the second half of the season — and they had won 13 of their last 19 games on the road in the playoffs in the last two years.
New York’s underlying metrics in these playoffs are underwhelming. They went into Thursday’s game ranked 14th in Corsi-For Percentage, ninth in expected Goals Percentage, and last of the final four teams in expected Goals For Percentage. They are last of the final four teams in Power Play goals. They were not getting production from some key players — Mike Zibanejad and Chris Kreider have yet to register a point. Adam Fox may be trying to play through an injury — and he was shaky in Game Four. The Rangers had lost 12 of their last 19 games at home after a loss by one goal. They had also lost 8 of their last 11 games at home after losing in overtime in their last game. Furthermore, New York had lost 5 of their last 8 games when the playoff series was tied — and they had lost 4 of their last 5 fifth games in a playoff series.
The Rangers have overcome getting outplayed at even strength with strong play from their special teams. They want into Game Five ranked third in the playoffs on the Power Play. Even better, they have scored five shorthanded goals in the postseason — and Kreider broke his pointless streak by scoring a shorty at the 2:04 mark of the second period. But the Panthers responded just over six minutes later when Gustav Forsling scored at the 8:21 minute mark of the period. Anton Lundell then gave Florida the lead midway through the third period with his goal. Sam Bennett added an empty netter at the 18:08 minute mark of the third period. Alexis Lafreniere cut the deficit in half for the Rangers with fifty seconds left — but the Panthers held on to take the game by a 3-2 score.
When an NHL playoff series is tied at 2-2, the winner of Game Five goes on to win 78.8% of the time (231-62). Florida outshot New York by a 36-27 margin in Game Five as they continue to outplay the Rangers in most situations fueled by their dominant forecheck. With the books listing the Panthers as a money-line favorite in the -165 range, I will be passing on the side for a potential featured play since the price is higher than my -150 price threshold in the NHL (and MLB). And if New York pulls off the upset on the road, the odds change significantly with them hosting a Game Seven back at home at Madison Square Garden.
But the informal Game Five rule did reward the team that has been playing better overall hockey in this series, despite the 2-2 tie in the series.
Best of luck — Frank.
