by Team Del Genio
Friday, Jun 30, 2023The Miami Heat were the biggest surprise of the NBA playoffs as they reached the finals despite having to qualify for the postseason through the play-in tournament. Despite losing their initial play-in game at home to the Atlanta Hawks, the Heat demonstrated their internal belief in their culture by going to upset the Eastern Conference top-seeded Milwaukee Bucks, the New York Knicks, and then the defending Easter Conference champion Boston Celtics to reach the NBA finals to face the Denver Nuggets.
Yet Miami hit a wall with their scoring this postseason. After scoring 128 points in taking a 3-0 lead against Boston in the Eastern Conference finals, they then scored under 100 points in five of their last eight games going into Game 5 of the NBA finals against the Nuggets. Perhaps the nagging ankle injury that Jimmy Butler re-aggravated has removed the x-factor from their offensive attack. Butler was averaging only 21.8 points per game in this series, with the lift and explosion when attacking the rim seemingly gone. After scoring 30 or more points five times in his first eleven playoff games from the Milwaukee series to Game 1 of the Celtics series, he had not scored more than 28 points since.
The diminished threat Butler posed in attacking the rim allowed the Nuggets to pay more attention to outside shooters. Perhaps the injuries to Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo had finally begun to take their toll. While Gabe Vincent, Caleb Martin, Max Strus, and Duncan Robinson had all taken turns being the hero with their 3-point shooting, it is difficult to have to continually rely upon role players that were undrafted free agents coming out of college.
Perhaps Miami was simply due to seeing their red-hot 3-point shooting fall back down to earth. After leading all teams in the playoffs with a 39.0% shooting percentage from 3-point land, the Heat had not made more than 33% of their 3-pointers in three of the first four games in the finals. For the series, they were making 36.6% of their 3-pointers which was still above their regular season average of 34.4%. In their 108-95 loss at home to Denver in Game 4, Butler and Bam Adebayo combined for 45 points yet they only made 17 of their 36 shots to get there. Vincent and Strus combined to make only one of their ten shots from the field, and they missed all seven of their shots from behind the arc. Butler and Adebayo needed help but the unexpected scoring efforts from the supporting cast petered out. In their last eight games going into Game 5 of the finals, the Heat were averaging 99.4 points per game and thThe ey had only scored more than 103 points once. They have a 43.4% shooting percentage in their last eight games. In this series, Miami was averaging 98.3 points per game on 42.4% shooting after the first four games. Given the wear and tear of the playoff season, it is difficult to expect the Heat to suddenly break out of these negative trends, especially given their injury situation.
Denver deserves credit for their defensive play as well. While the trademark of this team is their efficiency on offense, head coach Michael Malone had continued to preach the need to improve their defense as the final piece to a championship puzzle. The Nuggets were allowing 106 points per game in the playoffs going into Game 5 of the NBA finals, down by more than five points from their regular season average. After beginning the NBA finals with a defensive rating of 111.7 in the playoffs, that mark has dropped to 111.1 after the first four games against the Heat, ranking the fifth lowest in the playoffs. Miami has an offensive rating of 109.5 in this series, which is -3.8 points per 100 possessions lower than their regular season mark which ranked only 25th in the league. The Heat were scoring 9.2 fewer points per 100 possessions in the NBA finals versus what they accomplished against Boston last round. The length of the Denver defenders were giving Miami problems. The Heat had played seven of their last nine games under the number after scoring 95 or fewer points in their previous game.
Miami played well in the first half of Game 5 in the face of elimination. They scored 51 points and went into halftime with a seven-point lead. Yet the Heat could only score 38 points in the second half as they watched Denver win the game, 94-89, to claim their first NBA title. Miami shot 34% from the field and made only nine shots from 3-point land from a 26% shooting percentage from behind the 3-point line.
In the end, the Heat scored more than 103 points just once in their final eight games in the playoffs, and they did not score more than 99 points in five of those games. Despite the oddsmakers moving their over/under number consistently down from its 217 peak in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference finals and its NBA finals peak of 219 in Game 1, seven of Miami's last eight games of the season finished under the season.
Bettors who jumped on board those unders trends were richly rewarded.
Good luck - TDG.
Yet Miami hit a wall with their scoring this postseason. After scoring 128 points in taking a 3-0 lead against Boston in the Eastern Conference finals, they then scored under 100 points in five of their last eight games going into Game 5 of the NBA finals against the Nuggets. Perhaps the nagging ankle injury that Jimmy Butler re-aggravated has removed the x-factor from their offensive attack. Butler was averaging only 21.8 points per game in this series, with the lift and explosion when attacking the rim seemingly gone. After scoring 30 or more points five times in his first eleven playoff games from the Milwaukee series to Game 1 of the Celtics series, he had not scored more than 28 points since.
The diminished threat Butler posed in attacking the rim allowed the Nuggets to pay more attention to outside shooters. Perhaps the injuries to Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo had finally begun to take their toll. While Gabe Vincent, Caleb Martin, Max Strus, and Duncan Robinson had all taken turns being the hero with their 3-point shooting, it is difficult to have to continually rely upon role players that were undrafted free agents coming out of college.
Perhaps Miami was simply due to seeing their red-hot 3-point shooting fall back down to earth. After leading all teams in the playoffs with a 39.0% shooting percentage from 3-point land, the Heat had not made more than 33% of their 3-pointers in three of the first four games in the finals. For the series, they were making 36.6% of their 3-pointers which was still above their regular season average of 34.4%. In their 108-95 loss at home to Denver in Game 4, Butler and Bam Adebayo combined for 45 points yet they only made 17 of their 36 shots to get there. Vincent and Strus combined to make only one of their ten shots from the field, and they missed all seven of their shots from behind the arc. Butler and Adebayo needed help but the unexpected scoring efforts from the supporting cast petered out. In their last eight games going into Game 5 of the finals, the Heat were averaging 99.4 points per game and thThe ey had only scored more than 103 points once. They have a 43.4% shooting percentage in their last eight games. In this series, Miami was averaging 98.3 points per game on 42.4% shooting after the first four games. Given the wear and tear of the playoff season, it is difficult to expect the Heat to suddenly break out of these negative trends, especially given their injury situation.
Denver deserves credit for their defensive play as well. While the trademark of this team is their efficiency on offense, head coach Michael Malone had continued to preach the need to improve their defense as the final piece to a championship puzzle. The Nuggets were allowing 106 points per game in the playoffs going into Game 5 of the NBA finals, down by more than five points from their regular season average. After beginning the NBA finals with a defensive rating of 111.7 in the playoffs, that mark has dropped to 111.1 after the first four games against the Heat, ranking the fifth lowest in the playoffs. Miami has an offensive rating of 109.5 in this series, which is -3.8 points per 100 possessions lower than their regular season mark which ranked only 25th in the league. The Heat were scoring 9.2 fewer points per 100 possessions in the NBA finals versus what they accomplished against Boston last round. The length of the Denver defenders were giving Miami problems. The Heat had played seven of their last nine games under the number after scoring 95 or fewer points in their previous game.
Miami played well in the first half of Game 5 in the face of elimination. They scored 51 points and went into halftime with a seven-point lead. Yet the Heat could only score 38 points in the second half as they watched Denver win the game, 94-89, to claim their first NBA title. Miami shot 34% from the field and made only nine shots from 3-point land from a 26% shooting percentage from behind the 3-point line.
In the end, the Heat scored more than 103 points just once in their final eight games in the playoffs, and they did not score more than 99 points in five of those games. Despite the oddsmakers moving their over/under number consistently down from its 217 peak in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference finals and its NBA finals peak of 219 in Game 1, seven of Miami's last eight games of the season finished under the season.
Bettors who jumped on board those unders trends were richly rewarded.
Good luck - TDG.
