by Hollywood Sports
Sunday, Jun 30, 2024I expected a lower-scoring affair in the UEFA Champions League finals match between Borussia Dortmund and Real Madrid — and Real Madrid came away with a 2-0 victory to win the European club championship.
Tactics make fights (and soccer matches) -- and both of these sides preferred to play in a defensive midblock position. They both preferred to counter-attack against press-high opponents. Neither of the head coaches was going to be anxious to blink and embrace an attacking mode. Dortmund head coach Edin Terzic is content to park the bus with his ten players and lean on his outstanding goaltender Gregor Kobel.
Real Madrid manager Carlo Ancelotti was likely to have his team attack -- but only cautiously to not give Dortmund counter-attack opportunities. Perhaps the talents of Jude Bellingham, Vinicius Junior, and Rodrygo up top could create scoring opportunities. But, part of Ancelotti's approach was likely to goad Dortmund into a counter-attack -- from which they can perhaps counter with their Big Three getting better scoring chances with a better tactical advantage. It set up to be a cagey affair -- and I did not expect the approach from either side to change if they gave up the opening goal until late into the match. The tactical concern with getting aggressive immediately after surrendering a goal was going to be that it plays into the counter-attacking strength of their opponent.
Both of these sides saw their attack decline when playing away from home. Dortmund generated 2.45 expected Goals (xG) when playing at home in the Bundesliga -- but that mark dropped to 1.73 x when playing on the road. Real Madrid averaged 25.1 xG at home in La Liga -- but that clip dropped to 1.74 xG on the road in the Spanish top flight. Both teams also play good defense and could hang on to a 1-0 or 2-0 lead.
Dortmund used these defensive tactics against PSG in the semifinals -- and they held them (and Kylian Mbappe) scoreless. In their 12 Champions League matches this season, they had given up only nine goals -- and they generated six clean sheets. In their six Knockout Stage matches, they conceded only five goals.
Real Madrid led La Liga with an expected Goals Allowed age of 1.03 -- and in their last 20 matches since the beginning of January, their xGA dropped to 0.9 xGA. Los Blancos also had the veteran Thibault Courtois as their goalkeeper in this one -- not only is he one of the best in the world, but he also made nine saves against Man City in a spectacular Champions League Final in 2022.
Only six combined goals had been scored in the last five Champions League Finals -- and the last four had seen 1-0 final scores. In the last 16 UCL Finals, 11 of these matches finished Under 2.5 -- and 5 of the last 6 UCL Finals finished Under 2. For these reasons, our UEFA Champions League Total of the Year was on the under.
The match was still scoreless at half-time. Dani Carvajal broke the game open for Real Madrid by scoring in the 74th minute. With Borussia Dortmund now needing to play more aggressively, Vinicius was able to score a second goal nine minutes later. Fortunately, Los Blancos kept their clean sheet the rest of the way without scoring a third goal.
Best of luck — Frank.
Tactics make fights (and soccer matches) -- and both of these sides preferred to play in a defensive midblock position. They both preferred to counter-attack against press-high opponents. Neither of the head coaches was going to be anxious to blink and embrace an attacking mode. Dortmund head coach Edin Terzic is content to park the bus with his ten players and lean on his outstanding goaltender Gregor Kobel.
Real Madrid manager Carlo Ancelotti was likely to have his team attack -- but only cautiously to not give Dortmund counter-attack opportunities. Perhaps the talents of Jude Bellingham, Vinicius Junior, and Rodrygo up top could create scoring opportunities. But, part of Ancelotti's approach was likely to goad Dortmund into a counter-attack -- from which they can perhaps counter with their Big Three getting better scoring chances with a better tactical advantage. It set up to be a cagey affair -- and I did not expect the approach from either side to change if they gave up the opening goal until late into the match. The tactical concern with getting aggressive immediately after surrendering a goal was going to be that it plays into the counter-attacking strength of their opponent.
Both of these sides saw their attack decline when playing away from home. Dortmund generated 2.45 expected Goals (xG) when playing at home in the Bundesliga -- but that mark dropped to 1.73 x when playing on the road. Real Madrid averaged 25.1 xG at home in La Liga -- but that clip dropped to 1.74 xG on the road in the Spanish top flight. Both teams also play good defense and could hang on to a 1-0 or 2-0 lead.
Dortmund used these defensive tactics against PSG in the semifinals -- and they held them (and Kylian Mbappe) scoreless. In their 12 Champions League matches this season, they had given up only nine goals -- and they generated six clean sheets. In their six Knockout Stage matches, they conceded only five goals.
Real Madrid led La Liga with an expected Goals Allowed age of 1.03 -- and in their last 20 matches since the beginning of January, their xGA dropped to 0.9 xGA. Los Blancos also had the veteran Thibault Courtois as their goalkeeper in this one -- not only is he one of the best in the world, but he also made nine saves against Man City in a spectacular Champions League Final in 2022.
Only six combined goals had been scored in the last five Champions League Finals -- and the last four had seen 1-0 final scores. In the last 16 UCL Finals, 11 of these matches finished Under 2.5 -- and 5 of the last 6 UCL Finals finished Under 2. For these reasons, our UEFA Champions League Total of the Year was on the under.
The match was still scoreless at half-time. Dani Carvajal broke the game open for Real Madrid by scoring in the 74th minute. With Borussia Dortmund now needing to play more aggressively, Vinicius was able to score a second goal nine minutes later. Fortunately, Los Blancos kept their clean sheet the rest of the way without scoring a third goal.
Best of luck — Frank.
