Tarik Skubal's Emergence as an Elite Starting Pitcher

At this time last season, Tarik Skubal was still recovering from flexor tendon surgery that ended his 2022 season prematurely in August. He demonstrated promise that year by posting a 3.52 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in 21 starts. A year later, he has become one of the best-starting pitchers in Major League Baseball. When he did return in early July of last year, he started 15 times the rest of the way. He posted a 7-3 record with a 2.80 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP. After getting up to 80 pitches in his fourth start, he registered a 2.37 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP in his final 12 starts. He struck out 33.6% of the batters he faced during that span. His outstanding pitching carried over into the spring where he registered a 2.57 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP in 14 innings. He struck out 17 batters and walked only three in those spring training efforts. 

Going into his game on Sunday against Kansas City, the left-hander was coming off six shutout innings against Tampa Bay on Monday. He had a 3-0 record this season with a 1.82 ERA and a 0.74 WHIP in 29 2/3 innings. He had punched out 35 batters while only issuing five bases-on-balls — and he was striking out 31.2% of the batters he faced. 

This start continues the great run he was on last year coming back from a midseason injury. Since the beginning of September through this month, Skubal had a 7-0 record with a 1.35 ERA. Last season, he had a 2.80 ERA with a 0.90 WHIP in 15 starts — and those numbers were validated by a 2.77 SIERA and a 2.56 xFIP along with an expected ERA of 2.30. I am leaning into the expected ERA (xERA) more this season as I am impressed with Statcast’s incorporation of hard-hit rates, barrel-rates, and exit velocity.

In his eight starts at home last year, he sported a 1.37 ERA with a 0.79 WHIP and a .171 opponent batting average. This season, Skubal has a 2.56 SIERA and a 2.54 xFIP — and his xERA is 2.13. We can live with regression to those numbers from his current 1.82 ERA. His four-seamer is outstanding — and he uses his deceptive change-up as his primary off-speed pitch. If he can further develop his slider, he will be even more effective. 

The Tigers had won 6 of their last 8 games at home with Skubal pitching with the Total set in the 7-7.5 range. He was set up to thrive once again against this Royals team that is scoring only 3.4 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .223 batting average, a .272 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .595. 

Skubal gave up a leadoff double to Maikel Garcia who then scored when the next batter, Bobby Witt Jr,. singled him home. But that was all the damage that Kansas City could muster with Skubal only giving up our hits and that lone run in seven innings of work. The lefty struck out six batters. Detroit won the game by a 4-1 score — and we won our MLB American League Central Game of the Month. 

Best of luck — Frank.