by Rod Pearson
Monday, Jun 17, 2024
Game Time: 7:40 pm ET, Tuesday, June 18, 2024
Venue: Target Field, Minneapolis, MN
Where to Watch: BSSUN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Moneyline odds: Rays +130, Twins -155; Over/Under: 8 runs
Bet365: Moneyline odds: Rays +130, Twins -155; Over/Under: 8 runs
BetMGM: Moneyline odds: Rays +130, Twins -155; Over/Under: 8 runs
Season Record
Tampa Bay Rays: 34-38 (5th place, AL East)
Minnesota Twins: 40-32 (3rd place, AL Central)
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Recent Form
Tampa Bay Rays: 3-7 last 10
Minnesota Twins: 7-3 last 10
Tampa Bay Rays vs Minnesota Twins Preview and Analysis
The Rays are entering this series off a win and lost their 3-game series against the Atlanta Braves 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 34-38 record overall and have a road record of 15-15. This is the series opener of a 3-game series with the Twins on Tuesday and they have Monday off as a day of rest. Their offense ranks 28th in the MLB with a .661 OPS. Zach Eflin was their starting pitcher on Sunday while Aaron Civale is making his start in this game on Tuesday. He is 2-5 with a 5.20 ERA this season. His team lost their last 7 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 1 ER, 1 HR, and 1 BB with 6 Ks on 5 hits through 5.2 IP against the Chicago Cubs.
The Twins are entering this series off a win and completed the sweep in their 4-game series against the Oakland Athletics 4-0 in their last series. They enter this game with a 40-32 record overall and have a home record of 22-14. This is the 1st game of a 3-game series with the Rays on Tuesday and they have Monday off as a day of rest. Their offense ranks 8th in the MLB with a .727 OPS. Chris Paddack was their starting pitcher on Sunday while Pablo López is making his start in this game on Tuesday. He is 6-6 with a 5.33 ERA this season. His team won 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 2 earned runs, 1 homer, and 0 BB with 5 strikeouts on 5 hits through 5 innings played against the Colorado Rockies.
Rays vs Twins Prediction
The current betting odds have the Twins listed as a favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Twins have looked good in their games this season with their 40-32 record overall, but that record only has them in 3rd place of the AL Central, trailing behind the Cleveland Guardians and the Kansas City Royals. They have looked a lot better in their home games though, going 22-14 in their home games this season. Meanwhile, the Rays haven't looked good in their games this season with their 34-38 record overall which has them struggling in the AL East. They haven't looked in their road games either with their 15-15 road record. The Rays are coming off a win against the Braves in their last series, but they still lost that series while the Twins are going to have some momentum with a sweep over the A's on the weekend. The Twins also have the better pitching matchup here with Lopez starting. He is 6-6 with a 5.33 ERA this season, but he only gave up 2 earned runs in his last start and the team has been playing better with him lately, winning 2 of their last 3 games that he started. The Rays are going to have Civale in this game and he hasn't looked great this year. He is 2-5 with a 5.20 ERA and has been giving up a lot of runs in his starts. He only gave up 1 earned run in his last start, but the team has still lost 7 games in a row with him starting and he has looked much worse on the road too. The best way to place a bet here is on the Twins to win this game.
Rays Twins Prediction: Our MLB Pick for Tuesday, June 18, 2024 (7:40 pm ET start time) is Twins 6 Rays 3.
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MLB Betting Trends
Tampa Bay Rays: 34-38 (-12 units) on the moneyline in all games. 4-8 (-8.7 units) on the moneyline against AL Central opponents. 22-31 (-15.5 units) on the moneyline against right-handed starters. AARON CIVALE is 19-11 UNDER as a road underdog of +100 to +150 and 6-2 UNDER after a win.
Minnesota Twins: 29-16 (+5.9 units) on the moneyline as a favorite of -110 or higher. 8-1 (+7 units) on the moneyline after scoring 8 runs or more. 10-0 (+10 units) on the moneyline after batting .315 or better over a 5 game span. 8-2 UNDER at home with a money line of -100 to -150. 24-15 UNDER when the total is 8 to 8.5. 18-4 UNDER after scoring 6 runs or more in 5 straight games.
Key Injuries
Tampa Bay Rays: J. Caballero (2B) Ques Tue - Calf. T. Walls (SS) Ques Tue - Illness. R. Lovelady (RP) Out indefinitely - Forearm. J. Waguespack (RP) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. W. Franco (SS) Out indefinitely - Poss. Suspension. J. Springs (RP) Early Aug - Elbow. D. Rasmussen (RP) Mid Aug - Elbow. S. McClanahan (SP) out for season - Elbow.
Minnesota Twins: Z. Weiss (RP) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. J. Topa (RP) Out indefinitely - Knee. B. Stewart (RP) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. D. Duarte (RP) out for season - Elbow. A. DeSclafani (SP) out for season - Elbow.
Notable Quotes
“Wins are tough to come by. We are feeling it right now. Up 6-2, normally you are feeling pretty good, but the reality is, teams are playing us tough. Pleased with the effort for sure today.” - Kevin Cash after his team’s win against the Braves in their game on Sunday.
“It’s more than I’ve ever seen. It’s not fluky, he’s really very talented, he’s got a very good swing that stays on plane. He can hit fastballs, he can hit breaking balls, he always has a chance to do something. There’s a dangerous nature about him at the plate. When he’s on your side, you can’t help but smile when he’s doing it.” - Rocco Baldelli after his team’s win against the A’s in game 2 of their double-header on Sunday.
Starting Lineups
Tampa Bay Rays
Yandy Díaz (R) DH
Brandon Lowe (L) 2B
Isaac Paredes (R) 1B
Josh Lowe (L) RF
Randy Arozarena (R) LF
Richie Palacios (L) 3B
Jose Siri (R) CF
Ben Rortvedt (L) C
Amed Rosario (R) SS
Minnesota Twins
Willi Castro (S) 2B
Trevor Larnach (L) DH
Royce Lewis (R) 3B
Max Kepler (L) RF
Carlos Correa (R) SS
Carlos Santana (S) 1B
Manuel Margot (R) LF
Christian Vázquez (R) C
Austin Martin (R) CF
Statistical Leaders
Tampa Bay Rays
Batting Average: Amed Rosario (.299)
Hits: Yandy Díaz (73)
Home Runs: Isaac Paredes (10)
RBI: Isaac Paredes (38)
Stolen Bases: José Caballero (22)
Wins: Garrett Cleavinger (4)
Saves: Pete Fairbanks (10)
ERA: Edwin Uceta (0.00)
Minnesota Twins
Batting Average: Royce Lewis (.390)
Hits: Willi Castro (64)
Home Runs: Ryan Jeffers (12)
RBI: Ryan Jeffers (36)
Stolen Bases: Willi Castro (8)
Wins: Pablo López (6)
Saves: Jhoan Duran (11)
ERA: Josh Staumont (0.00)
Managers:
Tampa Bay Rays: Kevin Cash (10th season)
Minnesota Twins: Rocco Baldelli (6th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
