Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox Prediction, Odds and Preview - 08/12/2021

Game Time: 4:10 pm ET, Thursday, August 12th, 2021
Venue:  Fenway Park, Boston, Mass
Where to Watch:  Bally Sports Sun, NESN

Rays:  69-44 (1st place, American League East)
Red Sox:  65-50 (2nd place, American League East)

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds: Rays -110 Red Sox-105; Over/Under:  10 runs
BetMGM:  Moneyline odds: Rays -115 Boston -105; Over/Under 10 runs

Rays:  Kevin Kiermaier (knee) Questionable, JP Feyereisen (biceps) Out

Red Sox:  C Arroyo (hamstring) Out, D Santana (groin) Questionable, 

Rays

B. Lowe, 2B
J. Choi, 1B
N. Cruz, DH
A. Meadows, LF
W. Franco, SS
R. Arozarena, RF
J. Wendle, 3B
B. Phillips, CF
F. Mejia, C

Red Sox:

E. Hernandez, 2B
H. Renfroe, RF
X. Bogaerts, SS
R. Devers, 3B
J. Martinez, DH
K. Plawecki, C
M. Gonzalez, LF
B. Dalbec, 1B
J. Duran, CF

Rays:

Batting Average:  Randy Arozarena (.271)

Hits: Randy Arozarena (104)

Home Runs:  Brandon Lowe (25)

RBI:  Austin Meadows (77)

Stolen Bases:  Brett Phillips (12)

Wins: Josh Fleming (9)

Saves:  Diego Castillo (14)

ERA:  Ryan Yarbrough (4.76)

Strikeouts:  Tyler Glasnow (123)

Red Sox:

Batting Average:  Xander Bogaerts (.305)

Hits: Xander Bogaerts (120)

Home Runs: Rafael Devers (28)

RBI: Rafael Devers (83)

Stolen Bases: Christian Vazquez  (8)

Wins:  Nathan Eovaldi (9)

Saves: Matt Barnes (24)

ERA:  Nathan Eovaldi (4.07)

Managers:

Rays:  Kevin Cash

Red Sox:  Alex Cora

The Rays are 8-2 over their last ten games.  Currently on a 4 game winning streak.  The logged 7 Overs and 3 Unders.  They are scoring.  They had I wonder how many two bet parlays of Tampa moneyline with the Over are being laid?  The Rays swept Boston 3 games to start their last ten games… went 1-3 against Seattle, and swept Baltimore twice in a pair.  They beat Boston again last night.

The Red Sox are 2-8 over their last ten games.  That’s 2-8 on the moneyline, logging 6 Unders and 4 Overs.  Boston lost to Tampa Bay 13 days ago (July 29th), then the day after  (July 31st) then the day after (aug 1st) flash forward 10 days and they lost the first of a 3 game series to Tampa again.  (hmm).  In between they went 1-4 against Toronto, and 1-3 against the Detroit Tigers.

The Rays are 13th in batting, 16th in hits, 23rd in Home Runs… so why are they 1st in the AL East?  How could a pedestrian offense with just a few great batters and average hitters be in first place in the tough, tough AL East? They hit as average off of right-handers as they do off a left-hander.  The slugging percentage is even 12th place.  Well, they are 3rd in runs scored, meaning they bring runners around with what they’ve got..  Runs scored will usually tell you who is pretty good.

 The winners on the club are the starting pitchers , the rotation, the bullpen, and any pitcher they put out on the mound.  They are 6th in team ERA 3.59, 8th best in runs given up, 20th in home runs given up… all three stats are just a bit better than both the Boston Red Sox and  the New York Yankees… and just a bit better is how they are holding 1st place.

The Red Sox 4th in batting, 3rd in hits, and 21st in home runs.  They are just a few games behind the Rays and are barely clinging to a game above the Yankees.  They are 8th in runs scored.  They hit and hit, but leave more runners stranded then they should.

We can talk about the starters fastball velocities all day long, we can fret over bullpen depth… who had the last start? Who won the last matchup?... but the truth is the Red Sox are 15th in team ERA which ranks them average.  They are 16th in preventing runs, and 6th in preventing home runs.    

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The Rays will start Drew Rassmussen 1-1, 4.15 ERA, 50 strikeouts.  Drew is a 26 year old with only 39 innings pitched this season.  The Rays are starting TBA.  The dreaded “To Be Announced”.  This is because they are butting heads directly in a three-game series.  Both teams will go bullpen against bullpen. Both teams will be tired by game 3.

The advantage in a bullpen game usually goes to the home team, the Red Sox in Fenway would seem a sure thing against a green Tampa starter… but they have been swooning.  Swooning hard.  Dropping many games as of late including Tuesday, the first against the Rays.  Wednesday brings game 2, results not in yet.  By this game (Thursday) the Sox could be a broken team.  Losing 3 straight to the Rays would not only put them further out of first… it would most certainly allow the Yankees to jump them into 2nd place.  A catastrophic 3 game sweep would be back breaking, landing the Sox in 3rd place. 

 Boston just wrapped up a four-game series against the Toronto Blue Jays where they got rocked winning only 1-4.  The surging Blue Jays would be the next team nipping at their heels!... Could Boston finish this season in 4th place in the AL East?  After holding first place for many months?!!   Yes.

"He was ready for it and just laced a big double -- whatever it was -- right down the line for just huge runs for us,"   -Kevin Cash about Mejia single to score 3 runners in Tampa’s win over Boston.

"We didn't make pitches with two strikes and they got to Barnesy at the end,"   -Boston manager Alex Cora about Tuesday night's loss to the Rays.

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