Tampa Bay Lightning vs Ottawa Senators Prediction, Preview and Odds - 04/03/2025

Game Time: 7:00 pm ET, Thursday, April 3, 2025

Venue:  Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa, ON

Where to Watch:  ESPN+

DraftKings:  Moneyline:  Lightning -120, Senators +100; Over/Under:  5.5 goals

Bet365:  Moneyline:  Lightning -120, Senators +100; Over/Under:  6 goals

BetMGM:  Moneyline:  Lightning -120, Senators +100; Over/Under:  6 goals

Tampa Bay Lightning:  44-25-5 (2nd place, Atlantic Division)

Ottawa Senators:  39-29-6 (4th place, Atlantic Division)

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Tampa Bay Lightning:  7-2-1 last 10

Ottawa Senators:  5-4-1 last 10

The Lightning are entering this game with 93 points, a 44-25-5 record overall, and they are 17-17-3 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a win against the New York Islanders in their last game, winning that one on the road 4-1. Jake Guentzel, Oliver Bjorkstrand, Victor Hedman, and Nicholas Paul each scored 1 goal for them in that one. Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point each led the team in assists with 2 while Nicholas Paul led the team in shots on net in that game with 4. Andrei Vasilevskiy was the starting goalie in that game and he allowed 1 goal on 29 shots with 28 saves and a .966 save percentage. Their offense has scored 268 goals this season averaging 3.6 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 196 goals against them allowing 2.6 goals per game.

The Senators are entering this game with 84 points, a 39-29-6 record overall, and they are 21-11-2 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a loss against the Buffalo Sabres in their last game, losing that one at home 5-2. Claude Giroux and Jake Sanderson each scored 1 goal for them in that one. Michael Amadio, Tyler Kleven, Linus Ullmark, and Artem Zub each led the team in assists with 1 while Jake Sanderson, David Perron, and Tim Stützle each led the team in shots on net in that game with 4. Linus Ullmark was the starting goalie in that game and he allowed 4 goals on 21 shots with 17 saves and a .809 sv percentage. Their offense has scored 213 goals this season averaging 2.9 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 214 goals against them allowing 2.9 goals per game.

The current betting odds have the Lightning listed as a slight favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Lightning have looked good in their games this season with their 44-25-5 record overall which has them in 2nd place of their division in the East and in a playoff spot. They haven't been a good road team though with their 17-17-3 road record this season. Meanwhile, the Senators have looked good in their games this season with their 39-29-6 record overall which has them in 4th place of their division in the East and in a Wild Card spot. They have looked a lot better on home ice too with their 21-11-2 home record. The Senators don't have a ton of pressure on them at the moment since they are in the 1st Wild Card spot and have a bit of a buffer between them and the next team. They haven't looked that great in their games lately though. They are 5-4-1 in their last 10 games and they have lost 2 games in a row now, coming off a bad loss to the Sabres in their last one. The Lightning have been struggling a lot more in road games this season, but they have been starting to get hot lately. They are 7-2-1 in their last 10 games and have a ton of momentum on their side with 4 wins in a row now. They are also still fighting for seeding in the division as they just passed the Panthers in the standings for 2nd place and are only 1 point behind the Maple Leafs in 1st place. The Lightning haven't been at their best on the road this season, but they have been rolling in their games lately and can take advantage of the Senators starting to slump. The best way to place a bet here is on the Lightning to win this game. 

Lightning Senators Prediction:  Our NHL Pick for Thursday, April 3, 2025 (7:00 pm ET start time) is Lightning 4 Senators 3.

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Tampa Bay Lightning: 137-111 (-10.5 units) on the moneyline in all games. 57-60 (-10.1 units) on the moneyline when playing against a team with a winning record. 16-22 (-10.4 units) on the moneyline after a 3 game winning streak. 18-7 OVER off a road blowout win by 3 goals or more.

Ottawa Senators: 64-50 (+6.7 units) on the moneyline in home games. 64-49 (+12.8 units) on the moneyline after playing a home game. 40-38 (+3.1 units) on the moneyline revenging a same season loss vs opponent. 34-20 OVER when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%).

Tampa Bay Lightning:  L. Glendening (C) Day To Day - Personal.

Ottawa Senators:  B. Tkachuk (LW) Day To Day - Upper body. N. Cousins (C) Out - Knee.

“It gets tough down the stretch. You’re battling for a position. They gave us everything we could handle the other night in Tampa (a 5-3 win on Saturday to begin the home-and-home). They definitely had our attention. This is just one of those games that’s tight halfway through, and then we get those two goals two minutes apart, and then we defended our way through that. They’re a tough team to play. They’re always in your face. I thought our guys handled it much better tonight than on Saturday.” - Jon Cooper after his team’s win against the Islanders in their game on Tuesday.

“Sometimes you play pretty well and you lose.” - Travis Green after his team’s loss against the Sabres in their game on Tuesday.

LW Jake Guentzel

C Brayden Point

RW Nikita Kucherov

LD Victor Hedman

RD Janis Jérôme Moser

G Andrei Vasilevskiy

LW Fabian Zetterlund

C Tim Stutzle

RW Claude Giroux

LD Jake Sanderson

RD Artyom Zub

G Linus Ullmark

Points: N. Kucherov (111)

Goals: B. Point (38)

Assists: N. Kucherov (78)

GAA: A. Vasilevskiy (2.16)

Points: T. Stutzle (71)

Goals: B. Tkachuk (29)

Assists: T. Stutzle (50)

GAA: A. Forsberg (2.68)

Coaches:

Tampa Bay Lightning: Jon Cooper (13th season)

Ottawa Senators: Travis Green (1st season)