Tampa Bay Lightning vs Dallas Stars Prediction, Preview and Odds - 03/20/2025

Game Time: 8:00 pm ET, Thursday, March 20, 2025

Venue:  American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX

Where to Watch:  ESPN+

DraftKings:  Moneyline:  Lightning +110, Stars -130; Over/Under:  5.5 goals

Bet365:  Moneyline:  Lightning +110, Stars -130; Over/Under:  5.5 goals

BetMGM:  Moneyline:  Lightning +110, Stars -130; Over/Under:  5.5 goals

Tampa Bay Lightning:  39-23-5 (2nd place, Atlantic Division)

Dallas Stars:  43-21-3 (2nd place, Central Division)

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Tampa Bay Lightning:  6-3-1 last 10

Dallas Stars:  6-3-1 last 10

The Lightning are entering this game with 83 points, a 39-23-5 record overall, and they are 15-15-3 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a win against the Philadelphia Flyers in their last game, winning that one at home 2-0. Nikita Kucherov and Jake Guentzel each scored 1 goal for them in that one. Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point each led the team in assists with 1 while Jake Guentzel led the team in shots on net in that game with 5. Andrei Vasilevskiy was the starting goalie in that game and he recorded the shutout as he allowed 0 goals on 21 shots with 21 saves and a 1.000 save percentage. Their offense has scored 236 goals this season averaging 3.5 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 179 goals against them allowing 2.7 goals per game.

The Stars are entering this game with 89 points, a 43-21-3 record overall, and they are 25-7-1 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a win against the Anaheim Ducks in their last game, winning that one at home 4-3 in overtime. Mikael Granlund led the team in goals scored with 2 while Thomas Harley and Wyatt Johnston each scored 1 goal for them in that one. Thomas Harley and Roope Hintz each led the team in assists with 2 while Mikael Granlund and Jason Robertson each led the team in shots on net in that game with 4. Jake Oettinger was the starting goalie in that game and he allowed 3 goals on 25 shots with 22 saves and a .880 sv percentage. Their offense has scored 229 goals this season averaging 3.4 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 177 goals against them allowing 2.6 goals per game.

The current betting odds have the Stars listed as a slight favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Stars have looked really good in their games this season with their 43-21-3 record overall which has them in 2nd place of their division in the West and in a playoff spot. They have also looked great on home ice this year with their 25-7-1 home record which is one of the best home records in the entire NHL. Meanwhile, the Lightning have looked good in their games this season with their 39-23-5 record overall which has them in 2nd place of their division in the East and in a playoff spot. They have been climbing up the standings lately as they just passed the Maple Leafs to get into 2nd place, but they haven't been a good road team this year with their 15-15-3 road record. They have won 2 games in a row now and have looked good lately as they are 6-3-1 in their last 10 games, but they have been a completely different team on the road this season. The Stars have also looked good lately as they are 6-3-1 in their last 10 games and they are coming off a tight win over the Ducks. They had a scare in that game as they blew a lead against one of the worst teams in the NHL, but they recovered well and will make sure to bring their best effort for a stronger team in this game. The Lightning have some of the best goaltending in the NHL right now and haven't been giving up many goals lately, but the Stars also have 2 solid goalies themselves and offense has been a bigger issue for the Lightning on the road. The Stars can score a lot of goals at home and they will be able to take advantage of the Lightning's road troubles this season. The best way to place a bet here is on the Stars to win this game. 

Lightning Stars Prediction:  Our NHL Pick for Thursday, March 20, 2025 (8:00 pm ET start time) is Stars 5 Lightning 3.

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Tampa Bay Lightning: 132-109 (-13.3 units) on the moneyline in all games. 15-30 (-10.8 units) on the moneyline as a road underdog of +100 to +200. 58-53 (-8.6 units) on the moneyline revenging a loss versus opponent. 23-16 OVER revenging a home loss versus opponent.

Dallas Stars: 161-106 (+6.8 units) on the moneyline in all games. 140-77 (+12.5 units) on the moneyline as a favorite. 132-84 (+7.3 units) on the moneyline against poor power play killing teams - opp score on over 17.5% of chances. 21-14 OVER in March games.

Tampa Bay Lightning:  None.

Dallas Stars:  C. Ceci (D) Day To Day - Personal. M. Heiskanen (D) Out - Knee. T. Seguin (C) Out - Hip. N. Lundkvist (D) Out For Season - Upper Body.

"This was not our best night, we just turned the puck over way too often; we were fortunate that Philly wasn't capitalizing on it. We simplified our game and got better, but we've got to play way better than that going into Dallas, Utah and Vegas.” - Jon Cooper after his team’s win against the Flyers in their game on Monday.

“Important win. They’re not all pretty, especially over a long season, so we found a way. We did some good things. I thought the first half of that game we could have had four or five goals. Missed some really good looks, their goalie made some saves, they hung around. The one thing we have to clean up is we’ve taken 10 minor penalties in the last two games. You can’t do that. That’s a great equalizer this time of year.” - Pete DeBoer after his team’s win against the Ducks in their game on Tuesday.

LW Brandon Hagel

C Anthony Cirelli

RW Nikita Kucherov

LD Janis Jérôme Moser

RD Victor Hedman

G Andrei Vasilevskiy

LW Jason Robertson

C Roope Hintz

RW Mikko Rantanen

LD Thomas Harley

RD Ilya Lyubushkin

G Jake Oettinger

Points: N. Kucherov (95)

Goals: J. Guentzel (33)

Assists: N. Kucherov (66)

GAA: A. Vasilevskiy (2.24)

Points: M. Rantanen (74)

Goals: M. Rantanen (29)

Assists: M. Rantanen (45)

GAA: C. DeSmith (2.42)

Coaches:

Tampa Bay Lightning: Jon Cooper (13th season)

Dallas Stars: Peter DeBoer (3rd season)