by Rod Pearson
Monday, Sep 30, 2024
Game Time: 8:15 pm ET, Thursday, October 3, 2024
Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
Where to Watch: Amazon Prime Video
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Buccaneers +2, Falcons -2; Over/Under: 43.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Buccaneers +2, Falcons -2; Over/Under: 43.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Buccaneers +2.5, Falcons -2.5; Over/Under: 43.5 points
Season Record
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 3-1 (1st place, NFC South)
Atlanta Falcons: 2-2 (2nd place, NFC South)
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Recent Form
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: won their last game at home against the Philadelphia Eagles 33-16.
Atlanta Falcons: won their last game at home against the New Orleans Saints 26-24.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons Preview and Analysis
The Buccaneers are entering this game with a 3-1 record overall and they have a 0-0 record in their divisional games too. They are 2-1 in their home games, 1-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against the Philadelphia Eagles 33-16. Baker Mayfield was the starting QB and he completed 30/47 passes for 347 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Bucky Irving led the team in rushing yards with 49 and 1 TD. Mike Evans led the receivers with 94 receiving yards on 8 receptions and 1 TD. Lavonte David led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while Lavonte David led the defense in sacks with 2. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
The Falcons are entering this game with a 2-2 record overall and they have a 1-0 record in their divisional games too. They are 1-2 in their home games, 1-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against the New Orleans Saints 26-24. Kirk Cousins was the starting QB and he completed 21/35 passes for 238 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Tyler Allgeier led the team in rushing yards with 60. Drake London led the receivers with 64 receiving yards on 6 receptions. Troy Andersen led the defense in that game with 9 solo tackles and 7 assisted tackles while Dee Alford led the defense in sacks with 1. Troy Andersen came away with the only interception for them in that one.
Buccaneers vs Falcons Prediction
The current betting odds have the Buccaneers listed as a 2 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Buccaneers have looked really good in their games this season with their 3-1 record overall. This is going to be their first division game of the season, but they are already 1-0 in their road games and they are coming off a really nice win over the Eagles in their last one. Meanwhile, the Falcons haven't looked great in their games this season with their 2-2 record overall. They are 1-0 in their division games as they are coming off a win against the Saints in their last one which was a really tight game, needing a last second field goal to win, but they have struggled in this new era of Raheem Morris and Kirk Cousins. The offense has been shaky and the defense hasn't really been great either. The Bucs have a really good defense under Todd Bowles and they haven't been giving up a ton of points this season. Their offense has also looked great with Baker Mayfield in his 2nd season with the team and they will be looking to pick up their first division win with the momentum they have from that big Eagles win last week. This is going to be a tight divisional game either way, but it is one the Bucs can definitely pull off an upset win in. The best way to place a bet here is on the Buccaneers to cover the spread in this game.
Buccaneers Falcons Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Thursday, October 3, 2024 (8:15 pm ET start time) is Buccaneers 23 Falcons 21.
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NFL Betting Trends
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 8-4 ATS as a road underdog. 7-3 ATS in games played on turf. 6-1 1H ATS after scoring 30 points or more last game. 13-4 UNDER in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points. 20-10 UNDER against conference opponents. 6-0 UNDER after a 2 game home stand.
Atlanta Falcons: 5-13 ATS as a favorite. 8-16 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3. 4-10 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins. 23-15 UNDER in all games. 6-3 UNDER in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points. 7-1 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record.
Key Injuries
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: R. White (RB) Questionable - Illness. L. Goedeke (T) Out - Concussion. J. McMillan (WR) Doubtful - Hamstring. L. David (LB) Injured - Rest. G. Gaines (DL) Injured - Ankle. C. Godwin (WR) Injured - Neck. M. Evans (WR) Injured - Knee. V. Vea (NT) Questionable - Knee. K. Britt (LB) Injured - Knee. J. Dean (CB) Injured - Knee. T. Wirfs (T) Injured - Knee. K. Kieft (TE) Questionable - Ankle. A. Winfield (SAF) Out - Foot. L. Hall (DL) Injured - Foot. C. Kancey (DL) Out - Calf. Y. Diaby (OLB) Injured - Abdominal. K. Johnson (WR) Questionable - Ankle. B. Irving (RB) Questionable - Hamstring. G. Barton (C) Injured - Ankle. W. Gholston (DL) Injured - Knee.
Atlanta Falcons: T. Graham (DL) Injured - NIR-Rest. G. Jarrett (DL) Injured - NIR-Rest. T. Allgeier (RB) Injured - NIR-Rest. B. Robinson (RB) Injured - Shoulder. M. Judon (OLB) Injured - Hamstring. K. McGary (T) Out - Knee. J. Matthews (T) Injured - NIR - Personal.
Notable Quotes
“The season is four quarters. We’ve got three more quarters to go and we’ve got to show up and play like that every quarter.” - Todd Bowles after his team’s win against the Eagles in their last game.
“We’ve been in that situation a lot and you know that’s how it is in this league. A lot of the games, the majority of the games in this league, comes out to a one-possession game. Every point matters and our unit takes a lot of pride in that." - Younghoe Koo after their win against the Saints in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
WR Evans, Mike
WR McMillan, Jalen
WR Godwin, Chris
TE Otton, Cade
QB Mayfield, Baker
RB White, Rachaad
Atlanta Falcons
WR Mooney, Darnell
WR London, Drake
WR McCloud III, Ray-Ray
TE Pitts, Kyle
QB Cousins, Kirk
RB Robinson, Bijan
Statistical Leaders
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Passing: B. Mayfield (984)
Rushing: B. Irving (203)
Receiving: C. Godwin (322)
Touchdowns: C. Godwin (3)
Atlanta Falcons
Passing: K. Cousins (864)
Rushing: B. Robinson (224)
Receiving: D. Mooney (225)
Touchdowns: D. London (2)
Coaches:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Todd Bowles (3rd season)
Atlanta Falcons: Raheem Morris (1st season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
