by ASA, Inc.
Sunday, Feb 12, 2023UNDER 50.5 RUSHING YARDS – QB Jalen Hurts – Eagles
The oddsmakers have posted a rushing total of 50.5 yards for Hurts in 5 of the last seven games he’s played in. Now in the biggest game of the year, where the public loves to bet Overs, the number is 49.5? Hurts has averaged 50.6 rushing yards per game this season but three big games has inflated that average. He rushed for 157 against the Packers, 86 versus the Colts and 90 against the Lions in Week 1. He has rushed for over 50 yards in 7 of the seventeen games he’s played in this season. In the two playoff games he rushed for 34 and 39 yards. On the season the Chiefs allowed the 3rd most rushing yards to QB’s but that average was just 26.32RYPG. Kansas City has allowed a quarterback to rush for over 49 yards just three times this entire season.
OVER 15.5 RECEIVING YARDS – RB Isiah Pacheco – KC Chiefs
We have lost some value in this wager as Pacheco’s receiving O/U’s in his last three games has been 10.5 yards. But the correction by the oddsmakers is warranted. Pacheco is coming off a 5 reception, 59-receiving yard performance against the Bengals. He has been targeted an average of 2 times in the Chiefs last nine games. He has totaled 16 or more receiving yards in 6 of the last nine games he’s played in. With QB Patrick Mahomes slightly hobbled, and the Eagles have a solid pass rush, look for some short check-down passes to the backs out of the backfield. Pacheco literally needs just 1 potential catch to surpass this total.
OVER 12.5 RUSH ATTEMPTS – RB Miles Sanders – Eagles
The Eagles are one of the most rush heavy teams in the NFL with just over 50% of their snaps leading to runs (4th in the NFL). Their best RB is Miles Sanders and we expect a heavy dose of him in this game. He averaged 15 rush attempts per game during the regular season and 14 in their 2 playoff games. Philly spread the wealth in their 2 playoff games with Sanders carrying the ball 28 times, his backup Gainwell with 26 attempts and 3rd stringer Scott with 12. Much of that was because the Eagles jumped out to big leads and won easy in each of the playoff games so they were able to rest Sanders (2 of his 3 lowest snaps counts on the season were in their 2 playoff games). This is do or die and no reason to rest anyone for future games so we expect Sanders to get most of the action here. He is easily their best RB and Over 12.5 carries for Miles Sanders looks like a solid play on Sunday.
