by Oskeim Sports
Tuesday, Jan 28, 2025Super Bowl LIX will pit two of the NFL's hottest teams against each other at Caesar's Superdome in New Orleans. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs aim to become the first team in league history to capture three consecutive Super Bowl victories. The Chiefs defeated Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Championship game, while Saquon Barkley helped propel Philadelphia past the Commanders in the NFC Championship game.
Betting Preview
This year's Super Bowl features a rematch of Super Bowl LVII, where the Chiefs defeated Philadelphia 38-35. Kansas City is making its fifth Super Bowl appearance in the past six seasons, while head coach Andy Reid makes his sixth Super Bowl appearance. Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes is making his fifth Super Bowl appearance, tying Joh Elway for the second-most appearances for a signal-caller. Philadelphia head coach Nick Sirianni returns to the Super Bowl for the second time in his four-year tenure with the Eagles.
The Eagles and Chiefs both made significant moves this offseason to strengthen their teams, with Philadelphia General Manager Howie Roseman using innovative methods like adding void years to contracts to reduce upfront cap hits while stockpiling talent - including running back Saquon Barkley - who leads the league averaging 2.55 yards before contact per rush. Philadelphia's offense averaged 0.06 EPA/rush (second-best) and ranks No.1 in time of possession (32:22).
The Eagles' attack will be challenged by a Kansas City defense conceding just 4.2 yards per rush (8th) and allowed only eight runs of 20+ yards during the regular season, fifth fewest in the league. Kansas City finished the regular season ranked fourth in scoring defense (19.2 points per game)
Patrick Mahomes is 17-3 SU in his playoff career and 44-6 SU in home or neutral-site games played in November or later. Mahomes is 30-4 SU with extended rest during the season and 8-0 SU and ATS as an underdog or favorite of less than three points. Mahomes, who finished with a 2.3% turnover-worthy play rate this season (6th), faces an elite Philadelphia defense owning the league's seventh-best pressure rate (37%). Philadelphia's defensive front is led by interior defenders Jalen Carter, who has 53 pressures, and Milton Williams, who posted a 14% pressure rate this season.
Betting Trends
The Eagles scored 55 points in the Conference Championship, the most in that round in NFL history. Teams that scored 40 or more points in the Conference Championship are just 3-7 straight-up (SU) in the Super Bowl. Here are some additional betting trends to consider before February 9:
- Super Bowl favorites are 36-22 SU and 27-29-2 ATS
- Since 2007, Super Bowl underdogs are 10-7 SU and 12-5 ATS
- The Under is 11-10 in the last 21 Super Bowls
- Teams that win the Super Bowl outright are 49-7-2 ATS
- Super Bowl teams with a better record are 5-12 SU and 1-16 ATS since 2003
- Since 2018, the Chiefs are 64-7 SU when leading after the first quarter, including 29-0 SU in the last three seasons
- Since 2020, the Chiefs are 9-25 ATS (26.5%) following a game in which they scored 30 or more points, failing to cover the spread by an average of -5.2 points per game
- Since 2017, the Eagles are 19-3 SU and 17-5 ATS (77.3%) following a game in which they had 205 or more rushing yards, covering the spread by an average of +10.9 points per game
- Teams coming off three or more consecutive games without committing a turnover are 124-81-6 ATS (60.5%)
Super Bowl Official
Ron Torbert will be officiating his second Super Bowl. Over the last two seasons, Torbert has called the third-most penalties and ranks in the top 4 in offensive holding penalties (94). Over the last decade, favorites are 90-71-2 ATS (56%) in games officiated by Torbert. This season, favorites went 13-4 SU and ATS with Torbert as the lead official.
