by ASA, Inc.
Thursday, Mar 28, 2024NEW ORLEANS PELICANS +2500 to win the WEST
We have been in the Sports Betting Industry since the late 1980’s and over that span of time we have come up with a few betting angles that are tried and true when it comes to predicting an NBA Champion. We will bring you that article and NBA Finals predictions as soon as the playoff field is set. In the meantime, we have a Western Conference prediction that offers a nice return on your investment if/when it hits.
We will get into the metrics at a later date, but the core premise is you must rank top 11 in both offensive and defensive efficiency to be crowned NBA Champion. There are a few outliers but it’s a great starting point to forecast the future NBA Titleholder. We will use some of that logic in our assumption on who is a great longshot in the West.
The New Orleans Pelicans are lurking in the middle of the pack at 5th in the Western Conference and only trail the Clippers by 1-game for the 4th seed and home court in the first round of the playoffs. Literally nobody is talking about the Pelicans who have the 10th best offensive efficiency rating at 1.178-points per possession and the 5th best defensive efficiency rating allowing 1.125PPP. Denver and Oklahoma City are the only other teams in the West that can boast being in the top 10 in both efficiency categories. The Pelicans are 26-19 SU against other Western Conference foes this season with an average scoring differential of +3.7PPG. They’ve also proven they can win on the road, which is critical in the playoffs, with a 24-13 SU road record with an average +/- of +6.3PPG.
The top seeds in the West currently are Denver, Minnesota, Oklahoma City and they could all face tough first round opponents as the Suns, Mavericks, Kings, Warriors and the Lakers are all sitting in the bottom half of the Conference standings as of this writing.
New Orleans is 7-7 SU versus the other 4 teams currently ahead of them in the West and certainly capable of beating any of those contenders in a series. We feel this Pelicans team is currently undervalued at +2500 to win the West and will make a small investment on New Orleans.
