SMU Mustangs vs Penn State Nittany Lions Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 12/21/2024

Game Time: 12:00 pm ET, Saturday, December 21, 2024

Venue:  Beaver Stadium, University Park, PA

Where to Watch:  TNT, MAX

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  SMU +8.5, PSU -8.5; Over/Under:  54 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  SMU +8.5, PSU -8.5; Over/Under:  54 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  SMU +8.5, PSU -8.5; Over/Under:  54.5 points

SMU Mustangs:  11-2 (8-0) (1st place, ACC)

Penn State Nittany Lions:  11-2 (8-1) (3rd place, Big Ten)

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SMU Mustangs:  lost their last game at a neutral site against the Clemson Tigers 34-31.

Penn State Nittany Lions:  lost their last game at a neutral site against the Oregon Ducks 45-37.

SMU is entering this game with an 11-2 record overall and they have an 8-0 record in their conference games too. They are 6-1 in their home games, 5-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-1 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against Clemson 34-31. Kevin Jennings was the starting QB and he completed 31/50 passes for 304 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Brashard Smith led the team in rushing yards with 113. Roderick Daniels Jr. led the receivers with 97 receiving yards on 8 receptions and 1 TD. Kobe Wilson led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 9 assisted tackles while Elijah Roberts led the defense in sacks with 1.5. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.

 

 

 

Penn State is entering this game with an 11-2 record overall and they have an 8-1 record in their conference games too. They are 6-1 in their home games, 5-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-1 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against Oregon 45-37. Drew Allar was the starting QB and he completed 20/39 passes for 226 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. Kaytron Allen led the team in rushing yards with 124 and 1 TD. Tyler Warren led the receivers with 84 receiving yards on 7 receptions. Kobe King led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 4 assisted tackles while Dvon J-Thomas and Amin Vanover each led the defense in sacks with 0.5. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.

The current betting odds have Penn State listed as an 8.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Penn State has looked really good in their games this season with their 11-2 record overall and their 8-1 conference record which has them right near the top of the Big Ten. They ended up going to the Big Ten Championship, but they lost to Oregon in that game. They have losses to both Oregon and Ohio State, but they were also tight games within 1 score. Meanwhile, SMU has looked really good in their games this season with their 11-2 record overall and their 8-0 conference record which has them right at the top of the ACC. They were undefeated in the ACC in their first ever season being in the conference, but they went to the ACC Championship and lost to Clemson. They lost that game by 3 points and made it really close in the end, but they were also down a lot in that game and had to pull off a big comeback. Clemson also had 3 losses this season and wasn't that great compared to some of the other big teams in the playoffs, losing to Georgia 34-3 earlier this season. Penn State has a much better defense than what SMU saw in that ACC Championship and this is also going to be a road game so they aren't going to have an easy time in that environment. Penn State lost the Big Ten Championship, but they still went toe-to-toe with the best team in the nation and their offense is going to put up points on this SMU defense that hasn't really been tested by too many strong offenses this year. Penn State also has a much better defense that won't allow SMU to come back like they did against Clemson. The best way to place a bet here is on Penn State to cover the spread in this game. 

SMU Penn State Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, December 21, 2024 (12:00 pm ET start time) is Penn State 35 SMU 14.

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SMU Mustangs: 2-5 ATS as a road underdog. 5-9 ATS in non-conference games. 4-8 1H ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 8 or more passing yards/att. 6-3 OVER when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%). 6-3 OVER vs. good offensive  teams - scoring 31 or more points/game on the road.

Penn State Nittany Lions: 24-14 ATS in all lined games. 23-9 ATS as a favorite. 8-3 ATS in non-conference games. 4-1 ATS off a loss against a conference rival. 12-2 OVER when the total is between 49.5 and 56. 8-3 OVER in non-conference games. 

SMU Mustangs:  J. Bailey (WR) Out - Undisclosed. A. Davis (CB) Questionable - Head. J. Knighton (RB) Out - Knee. R. Maryland (TE) Out - Knee. Z. Minors (RB) Questionable - Lower Body. C. Wheaton (RB) Out - Knee.

Penn State Nittany Lions:  K. Artis (DT) Questionable - Undisclosed. K. Wylie (LB) Questionable - Undisclosed. K. Saunders (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. C. Wallace (RB) Questionable - Lower Body. A. Rappleyea (TE) Questionable - Undisclosed. K. Winston (SAF) Questionable - Undisclosed. D. Nelson (LB) Questionable - Undisclosed. A. Ford (DT) Out - Lower Body. A. Donkoh (OL) Out - Knee. Z. Fisher (DE) Out - Undisclosed.

“We did some things that were uncharacteristic in the first quarter that put us in a hole and it was hard, but we dug out of it.” - Rhett Lashlee after his team’s loss against Clemson in the ACC Championship.

“We played the No. 1 team in the country and had a chance to win at the end. We're going to learn from it.” - James Franklin after his team’s loss against Oregon in the Big Ten Championship.

WR Smith, Key'Shawn

WR Dixon, Moochie 

WR Daniels Jr., Roderick

TE Hibner, Matthew 

QB Jennings, Kevin

RB Smith, Brashard

WR Wallace III, Harrison 

WR Evans, Omari 

WR Clifford, Liam

TE Warren, Tyler 

QB Allar, Drew 

RB Singleton, Nicholas

Passing: K. Jennings (3050)

Rushing: B. Smith (1270)

Receiving: R. Daniels (599)

Touchdowns: B. Smith (18)

Passing: D. Allar (2894)

Rushing: N. Singleton (838)

Receiving: T. Warren (1062)

Touchdowns: N. Singleton (12)

Coaches:

SMU Mustangs: Rhett Lashlee (3rd season)

Penn State Nittany Lions: James Franklin (11th season)