by Rod Pearson
Thursday, Dec 19, 2024
Game Time: 4:25 pm ET, Sunday, December 22, 2024
Venue: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
Where to Watch: CBS
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: 49ers -1, Dolphins +1; Over/Under: 44.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: 49ers +1, Dolphins -1; Over/Under: 44.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: 49ers -1, Dolphins +1; Over/Under: 44.5 points
Season Record
San Francisco 49ers: 6-8 (4th place, NFC West)
Miami Dolphins: 6-8 (2nd place, AFC East)
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San Francisco 49ers: lost their last game at home against the Los Angeles Rams 12-6.
Miami Dolphins: lost their last game on the road against the Houston Texans 20-12.
San Francisco 49ers vs Miami Dolphins Preview and Analysis
The 49ers are entering this game with a 6-8 record overall and they have a 1-4 record in their divisional games too. They are 4-4 in their home games, 2-4 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against the Los Angeles Rams 12-6. Brock Purdy was the starting QB and he completed 14/31 passes for 142 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Isaac Guerendo led the team in rushing yards with 57. George Kittle led the receivers with 61 receiving yards on 4 receptions. Fred Warner led the defense in that game with 8 solo tackles and 7 assisted tackles while no one on the defense recorded a sack for them. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
The Dolphins are entering this game with a 6-8 record overall and they have a 3-2 record in their divisional games too. They are 4-3 in their home games, 2-5 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against the Houston Texans 20-12. Tua Tagovailoa was the starting QB and he completed 29/40 passes for 196 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 3 interceptions. De’Von Achane led the team in rushing yards with 41. Malik Washington led the receivers with 52 receiving yards on 5 receptions. Jordyn Brooks led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while Chop Robinson and Zach Sieler each led the defense in sacks with 1.5. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
49ers vs Dolphins Prediction
The current betting odds have the Dolphins listed as a 1 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Dolphins haven't looked great in their games this season with their 6-8 record overall which has them in 2nd place of the AFC East, but that record still has them in the Wild Card race and fighting for a playoff spot. They are coming off a bad loss to the Texans last week, but the team has looked a lot better as a whole since Tua returned from his injury and they will be looking to bounce back on their home field where they have looked a lot better this year, going 4-3 in those games. Meanwhile, the 49ers haven't looked any better in their games this season with their 6-8 record overall which has them right at the bottom of the NFC West. They haven't been eliminated from playoff contention yet, but they have had a disaster of a season riddled with injuries and the Super Bowl loss still hanging over them. They are coming off a 12-6 loss to the Rams last week in a game that didn't even have a TD scored in it, but their offense looked terrible as they just couldn't get anything going. Their defense hasn't looked the same as last season either and that is going to be an issue with the talent that this Dolphins offense has. Both of these teams are 6-8 this season, but the Dolphins haven't looked that bad over the last few weeks while things just keep going wrong for the 49ers and with the strength of their division at the moment, their season feels like it was over after that loss to the Rams last week. The best way to place a bet here is on the Dolphins to cover the spread in this game.
49ers Dolphins Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Sunday, December 22, 2024 (4:25 pm ET start time) is Dolphins 28 49ers 24.
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NFL Betting Trends
San Francisco 49ers: 11-6 ATS after playing a division game. 5-2 ATS off a home loss. 7-3 1H ATS after a 2 game home stand. 9-5 UNDER in games where the line is +3 to -3. 5-1 1H UNDER off an upset loss as a home favorite.
Miami Dolphins: 2-5 ATS after scoring 14 points or less last game. 6-12 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.65 yards/play or more. 5-11 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 350 yards/game or more. 13-7 UNDER in games where the line is +3 to -3. 10-3 UNDER after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse.
Key Injuries
San Francisco 49ers: M. Collins (DL) Injured - Illness. J. Moore (OL) Injured - Hip. J. Brown (SAF) Injured - Groin. N. Zakelj (OL) Injured - Illness. D. Winters (LB) Injured - Neck. M. Mustapha (SAF) Injured - Chest. I. Guerendo (RB) Injured - Foot. T. Hufanga (SAF) Injured - Wrist. T. Williams (OT) Injured - Ankle. D. Greenlaw (LB) Injured - Achilles. D. Flannigan-Fowles (LB) Injured - Knee. N. Bosa (DL) Injured - Hip. A. Banks (OL) Injured - Elbow.
Miami Dolphins: T. Tagovailoa (QB) Injured - Hip. D. Achane (RB) Injured. C. Campbell (DT) Injured - Rest. K. Lamm (T) Injured - Back. T. Hill (WR) Injured - Wrist. J. Poyer (SAF) Injured - Rest. T. Armstead (T) Injured - Knee. B. Chubb (LB) Injured - Knee. B. Ferguson (LS) Injured - Rest. D. Eskridge (WR) Injured - Knee. C. Goode (LB) Injured - Knee. A. Ingold (FB) Injured - Ankle. J. Waddle (WR) Injured - Knee.
Notable Quotes
“It was the story of the year. Just not doing enough to win games. Not playing complementary. Just coming out a little too short.” - Fred Warner after their loss against the LA Rams in their last game.
“There’s been some positive feedback related to some head and neck imaging. He will stay here overnight, and we’ll find out more by (Monday).” - Mike McDaniel on the injury to Grant DuBose after his team’s loss against the Texans in their last game.
Starting Lineups
San Francisco 49ers
WR Samuel Sr., Deebo
WR Pearsall, Ricky
WR Jennings, Jauan
TE Kittle, George
QB Purdy, Brock
RB Guerendo, Isaac
FB Juszczyk, Kyle
Miami Dolphins
WR Cracraft, River
WR Hill, Tyreek
WR Washington, Malik
TE Smith, Jonnu
QB Tagovailoa, Tua
RB Achane, De'Von
FB Ingold, Alec
Statistical Leaders
San Francisco 49ers
Passing: B. Purdy (3174)
Rushing: J. Mason (789)
Receiving: G. Kittle (861)
Touchdowns: G. Kittle (8)
Miami Dolphins
Passing: T. Tagovailoa (2652)
Rushing: D. Achane (641)
Receiving: T. Hill (805)
Touchdowns: D. Achane (10)
Coaches:
San Francisco 49ers: Kyle Shanahan (8th season)
Miami Dolphins: Mike McDaniel (3rd season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
