by Rod Pearson
Friday, Oct 11, 2024
Game Time: 8:08 pm ET, Friday, October 11, 2024
Venue: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
Where to Watch: FOX
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Moneyline odds: Padres +120, Dodgers -142; Over/Under: 7.5 runs
Bet365: Moneyline odds: Padres +120, Dodgers -140; Over/Under: 7.5 runs
BetMGM: Moneyline odds: Padres +120, Dodgers -140; Over/Under: 7.5 runs
Season Record
San Diego Padres: 93-69 (2nd place, NL West)
Los Angeles Dodgers: 98-64 (1st place, NL West)
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Recent Form
San Diego Padres: 6-4 last 10
Los Angeles Dodgers: 7-3 last 10
San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers Preview and Analysis
The Padres are entering this series off a win and completed the sweep 2-0 in their best 2 out of 3 game series against the Atlanta Braves in the Wild Card Round. They finished the regular season with a 93-69 record overall and had a road record of 48-33. This is the series finale of a best 3 out of 5 game series with the Dodgers on Friday for the National League Division Series. The Padres lost the series opener on Saturday, won game 2 on Sunday, won game 3 on Tuesday, and lost game 4 on Wednesday. Their offense ranks 6th in the MLB with a .744 OPS. Dylan Cease was their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Yu Darvish is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 7-3 with a 3.31 ERA this season. His team won their only playoff game this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB start, he allowed 1 ER, 0 HR, and 2 BB with 3 Ks on 3 hits through 7 IP against the Los Angeles Dodgers.
The Dodgers are entering this series off a win and completed the sweep in their 3-game series against the Colorado Rockies 3-0 in their final series of the regular season. They finished the regular season with a 98-64 record overall and had a home record of 52-29. This is the 5th game of a best 3 out of 5 game series with the Padres on Friday for the NLDS. The Dodgers won the 1st game on Saturday, lost the 2nd game on Sunday, lost the 3rd game on Tuesday, and won the 4th game on Wednesday. Their offense ranks 1st in the MLB with a .781 OPS. Ryan Brasier was their starting pitcher on Wednesday while rookie pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 7-2 with a 3.00 ERA this season. His team won their only playoff game this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB start, he allowed 5 earned runs, 1 homer, and 2 BB with 1 strikeout on 5 hits through 3 innings played against the San Diego Padres.
Padres vs Dodgers Prediction
The current betting odds have the Dodgers listed as a favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Padres finished the regular season with a 93-69 record overall which got them into the playoffs through the Wild Card, also going 48-33 in their road games this season. Meanwhile, the Dodgers finished the regular season with a 98-64 record overall which won them the NL West and the number 1 seed with the best record in the entire MLB. They were also 52-29 in their home games this year. This series is tied 2-2 and this will be the final game to see who goes through to the NLCS. The Padres had a chance to close out this series at home where they have been a lot better against the Dodgers this season, now they are going to be on the road and the Dodgers have been great there all season. Darvish is on the mound for the Padres and he was great in his start earlier in this series. Yamamoto is on the mound for the Dodgers and he didn't look great in his start in this series, but the team still won that game and they have the offense to help him out if he gets into trouble again. The Padres have the better pitching matchup but they have struggled more against the Dodgers on the road and they had their chance to win this series at home. The Dodgers have the stronger offense and it has been starting to roll lately. The best way to place a bet here is on the Dodgers to win this game.
Padres Dodgers Prediction: Our MLB Pick for Friday, October 11, 2024 (8:08 pm ET start time) is Dodgers 6 Padres 4.
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MLB Betting Trends
San Diego Padres: 97-70 (+17 units) on the moneyline in all games. 33-23 (+18.9 units) on the moneyline as an underdog of +100 or higher. 49-33 (+18.2 units) on the moneyline in road games. 26-16 OVER as an underdog of +100 to +150. 12-5 OVER off a loss to a division rival as a favorite. 14-6 OVER vs. a starting pitcher whose lasts less than 5 innings per start.
Los Angeles Dodgers: 99-66 (-4.3 units) on the moneyline in all games. 48-28 (-8.5 units) on the moneyline as a home favorite of -110 or higher. 57-41 (-7.9 units) on the moneyline after a win. 46-26 OVER as a home favorite of -110 or higher. 36-17 OVER against division opponents. 67-42 OVER against right-handed starters.
Key Injuries
San Diego Padres: J. Musgrove (SP) Questionable - Elbow. H. Kim (2B) Ten Day IL - Shoulder. J. Brito (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. M. McCoy (2B) Ten Day IL - Back. S. Kolek (RP) Sixty Day IL - Forearm. L. Patino (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.
Los Angeles Dodgers: K. Kiermaier (CF) Doubtful - Finger. M. Grove (SP) Doubtful - Shoulder. M. Rojas (SS) Questionable - Thigh. F. Freeman (1B) Questionable - Ankle. J. Kelly (RP) Out - Shoulder. B. Honeywell Jr. (SP) Undefined - Finger. B. Graterol (RP) Ten Day IL - Shoulder. G. Stone (SP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. T. Glasnow (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. C. Kershaw (SP) Out - Toe. R. Ryan (SP) Sixty Day IL - Forearm. D. May (SP) Out - Elbow. E. Sheehan (SP) Out - Elbow. T. Gonsolin (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. C. Brogdon (RP) Sixty Day IL - Foot.
Notable Quotes
“I like how the ball was coming out of my hand and I didn’t feel like I shot myself in the foot too much, which I felt like I’ve been doing. I felt good out there. It depended on results and unfortunately the results weren’t here today.” - Dylan Cease after their loss against the Dodgers in game 4 of this series on Wednesday.
“I’m proud. … Your desire’s got to be more than your opponent's. To see our guys go through what they’ve been through, and respond the way they have, it makes me excited about Game 5.” - Dave Roberts after his team’s win against the Padres in game 4 of this series on Wednesday.
Starting Lineups
San Diego Padres
Luis Arraez (L) 1B
Fernando Tatis Jr. (R) RF
Jurickson Profar (S) LF
Manny Machado (R) 3B
Jackson Merrill (L) CF
Xander Bogaerts (R) SS
David Peralta (L) DH
Jake Cronenworth (L) 2B
Kyle Higashioka (R) C
Los Angeles Dodgers
Shohei Ohtani (L) DH
Mookie Betts (R) RF
Teoscar Hernández (R) LF
Max Muncy (L) 1B
Will Smith (R) C
Tommy Edman (S) SS
Gavin Lux (L) 2B
Enrique Hernández (R) 3B
Chris Taylor (R) CF
Statistical Leaders
San Diego Padres
Batting Average: Matthew Batten (.333)
Hits: Manny Machado (163)
Home Runs: Manny Machado (29)
RBI: Manny Machado (105)
Stolen Bases: Ha-Seong Kim (22)
Wins: Dylan Cease (14)
Saves: Robert Suarez (36)
ERA: Sean Reynolds (0.82)
Los Angeles Dodgers
Batting Average: Hunter Feduccia (.333)
Hits: Shohei Ohtani (197)
Home Runs: Shohei Ohtani (54)
RBI: Shohei Ohtani (130)
Stolen Bases: Shohei Ohtani (59)
Wins: Gavin Stone (11)
Saves: Evan Phillips (18)
ERA: Eduardo Salazar (0.00)
Managers:
San Diego Padres: Mike Shildt (1st season)
Los Angeles Dodgers: Dave Roberts (9th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
