by Rod Pearson
Friday, Oct 04, 2024
Game Time: 8:38 pm ET, Saturday, October 5, 2024
Venue: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
Where to Watch: Fox Sports 1
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Moneyline odds: Padres +114, Dodgers -135; Over/Under: 7.5 runs
Bet365: Moneyline odds: Padres +110, Dodgers -130; Over/Under: 7.5 runs
BetMGM: Moneyline odds: Padres +115, Dodgers -135; Over/Under: 7.5 runs
Season Record
San Diego Padres: 93-69 (2nd place, NL West)
Los Angeles Dodgers: 98-64 (1st place, NL West)
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Recent Form
San Diego Padres: 7-3 last 10
Los Angeles Dodgers: 8-2 last 10
San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers Preview and Analysis
The Padres are entering this series off a win and completed the sweep 2-0 in their best 2 out of 3 game series against the Atlanta Braves in the Wild Card Round. They finished the regular season with a 93-69 record overall and had a road record of 48-33. This is the series opener of a best 3 out of 5 game series with the Dodgers on Saturday for the National League Division Series. Their offense ranks 6th in the MLB with a .744 OPS. Joe Musgrove was their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Dylan Cease is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 14-11 with a 3.47 ERA this season. His team won 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB start, he allowed 3 ER, 0 HR, and 3 BB with 4 Ks on 5 hits through 5 IP against the Los Angeles Dodgers.
The Dodgers are entering this series off a win and completed the sweep in their 3-game series against the Colorado Rockies 3-0 in their final series of the regular season. They finished the regular season with a 98-64 record overall and had a home record of 52-29. This is the 1st game of a best 3 out of 5 game series with the Padres on Saturday for the NLDS. Their offense ranks 1st in the MLB with a .781 OPS. Anthony Banda was their starting pitcher on Sunday while rookie pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 7-2 with a 3.00 ERA this season. His team won their last 3 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB start, he allowed 2 earned runs, 1 homer, and 0 BB with 6 strikeouts on 4 hits through 5 innings played against the Colorado Rockies.
Padres vs Dodgers Prediction
The current betting odds have the Padres listed as an underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Padres finished the regular season with a 93-69 record overall which got them into the playoffs through the Wild Card, also going 48-33 in their road games this season. Meanwhile, the Dodgers finished the regular season with a 98-64 record overall which won them the NL West and the number 1 seed with the best record in the entire MLB. They were also 52-29 in their home games this year. The Dodgers have been off for a week with rest while the Padres had to play in the Wild Card Round and knocked the Braves out of the playoffs, winning both of their games at home. The Dodgers have one of the best offenses in the entire MLB this season, but the Padres also have a really good offense and they are going to be warmed up after playing those 2 games during the week. They also have their ace on the mound, Dylan Cease, and he has looked great this season with his 14-11 record and his 3.47 ERA. He did give up 3 earned runs in his last start, but the team has won 2 of their last 3 games with him starting and he has been a solid starter all year long. The Dodgers are going with Yamamoto in this one and he has looked good with his 7-2 record and his 3.00 ERA. He only gave up 2 earned runs in his last start and the team has won 3 games in a row with him starting, but he is still in his rookie season and this will be his 1st ever playoff start. He has also missed a lot of time this season with an injury and the Padres have a really good offense that has been hot lately so they have the potential to blow him up here. The Padres always bring their best effort for the Dodgers and this playoff game will be no different. The best way to place a bet here is on the Padres to win this game.
Padres Dodgers Prediction: Our MLB Pick for Saturday, October 5, 2024 (8:38 pm ET start time) is Padres 5 Dodgers 3.
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MLB Betting Trends
San Diego Padres: 95-68 (+17 units) on the moneyline in all games. 32-22 (+18.5 units) on the moneyline as an underdog of +100 or higher. 48-32 (+17.8 units) on the moneyline in road games. 24-16 OVER as an underdog of +100 to +150. 12-6 OVER vs. a starting pitcher whose lasts less than 5 innings per start.
Los Angeles Dodgers: 97-64 (-4 units) on the moneyline in all games. 47-27 (-8 units) on the moneyline as a home favorite of -110 or higher. 56-40 (-7.4 units) on the moneyline after a win. 44-26 OVER as a home favorite of -110 or higher. 33-17 OVER against division opponents. 23-12 OVER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%).
Key Injuries
San Diego Padres: H. Kim (2B) Ten Day IL - Shoulder. J. Brito (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. M. McCoy (2B) Ten Day IL - Back. S. Kolek (RP) Sixty Day IL - Forearm. L. Patino (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.
Los Angeles Dodgers: M. Rojas (SS) Questionable - Groin. F. Freeman (1B) Questionable - Ankle. K. Kiermaier (CF) Questionable - Finger. B. Honeywell Jr. (SP) Undefined - Finger. B. Graterol (RP) Ten Day IL - Shoulder. G. Stone (SP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. T. Glasnow (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. C. Kershaw (SP) Undefined - Toe. R. Ryan (SP) Sixty Day IL - Forearm. D. May (SP) Out - Elbow. E. Sheehan (SP) Out - Elbow. T. Gonsolin (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. C. Brogdon (RP) Sixty Day IL - Foot.
Notable Quotes
“Fortunately, we had the lead. His leaving with two outs in the fourth was a challenge, but we found solutions and the bullpen was rested and played its part to bring it home.” - Mike Shildt after his team’s win against the Braves in game 2 of their Wild Card Series on Wednesday.
“There were ways early to get him out – crowding him down below, up – but now, his control of the strike zone has just gone to another level. And then the base-stealing, obviously. We’ve never seen that type of efficiency.” - Dave Roberts after his team’s win against the Rockies in their season finale on Sunday.
Starting Lineups
San Diego Padres
Luis Arraez (L) DH
Fernando Tatis Jr. (R) RF
Jurickson Profar (S) LF
Manny Machado (R) 3B
Jackson Merrill (L) CF
Xander Bogaerts (R) SS
Donovan Solano (R) 1B
Jake Cronenworth (L) 2B
Kyle Higashioka (R) C
Los Angeles Dodgers
Shohei Ohtani (L) DH
Mookie Betts (R) RF
Teoscar Hernández (R) LF
Max Muncy (L) 3B
Tommy Edman (S) SS
Enrique Hernández (R) 1B
Chris Taylor (R) 2B
Andy Pages (R) CF
Austin Barnes (R) C
Statistical Leaders
San Diego Padres
Batting Average: Matthew Batten (.333)
Hits: Manny Machado (163)
Home Runs: Manny Machado (29)
RBI: Manny Machado (105)
Stolen Bases: Ha-Seong Kim (22)
Wins: Dylan Cease (14)
Saves: Robert Suarez (36)
ERA: Sean Reynolds (0.82)
Los Angeles Dodgers
Batting Average: Hunter Feduccia (.333)
Hits: Shohei Ohtani (197)
Home Runs: Shohei Ohtani (54)
RBI: Shohei Ohtani (130)
Stolen Bases: Shohei Ohtani (59)
Wins: Gavin Stone (11)
Saves: Evan Phillips (18)
ERA: Eduardo Salazar (0.00)
Managers:
San Diego Padres: Mike Shildt (1st season)
Los Angeles Dodgers: Dave Roberts (9th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
