San Diego Padres vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/21/2024

Game Time: 1:40 pm ET, Sunday, July 21, 2024

Venue:  Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH

Where to Watch:  SDPA

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Padres -105, Guardians -115; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Padres -105, Guardians -115; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Padres -105, Guardians -115; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

San Diego Padres:  50-50 (3rd place, NL West)

Cleveland Guardians:  59-37 (1st place, AL Central)

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San Diego Padres:  3-7 last 10

Cleveland Guardians:  5-5 last 10

The Padres are entering this series off a loss and lost their 3-game series against the Atlanta Braves 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 50-50 record overall and have a road record of 24-22. This is the series finale of a 3-game series with the Guardians on Sunday with the 2nd game of this series still to be played on Saturday. The Padres lost the series opener of this series on Friday. Their offense ranks 11th in the MLB with a .727 OPS. Dylan Cease is their starting pitcher on Saturday while Michael King is making his start in this game on Sunday. He is 7-6 with a 3.41 ERA this season. His team won 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 1 ER, 0 HR, and 1 BB with 9 Ks on 3 hits through 6 IP against the Seattle Mariners.

The Guardians are entering this series off a loss and lost their 3-game series against the Tampa Bay Rays 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 59-37 record overall and have a home record of 31-11. This is the 3rd game of a 3-game series with the Padres on Sunday with the 2nd game of this series still to be played on Saturday. The Guardians won the 1st game of this series on Friday. Their offense ranks 12th in the MLB with a .721 OPS. Gavin Williams is their starting pitcher on Saturday while Ben Lively is making his start in this game on Sunday. He is 8-5 with a 3.58 ERA this season. His team won 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 2 earned runs, 2 homers, and 2 BB with 7 strikeouts on 3 hits through 5.1 innings played against the Tampa Bay Rays.

The current betting odds have the Guardians listed as a slight favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Guardians have looked great in their games this season with their 59-37 record overall which has them leading the AL Central with one of the best records in the entire MLB. They have also looked great in their own ballpark with their 31-11 home record. Meanwhile, the Padres have looked good in their games this season with their 50-50 record overall which has them in playoff conversation, but they are only 3-7 in their last 10 games and were slipping going into the All-Star break. They ended up losing their 1st game out of the break 7-0 and this is a series that the Guardians will be looking to win so they can start pulling away in the AL Central. They are going to have Lively on the mound here and he is 8-5 with a 3.58 ERA this season. He only gave up 2 earned runs in his last start which has been a common theme for him this year, and the team has had success with him, winning 2 of their last 3 games with him starting. The Padres have a decent offense but they have been cooling off lately, not producing many runs at all in their last few games, so Lively will be able to shut them down here with some help from the bullpen too. King is starting for the Padres in this one and he hasn't looked bad this season. He is 7-6 with a 3.41 ERA, only giving up 1 earned run in his last start and the team winning 2 of their last 3 games that he started in. He still has 6 losses though and with the Padres offense not putting up runs lately, he isn't going to get the run support he needs since the Guardians have one of the best pitching staffs in the MLB but also have an offense that can do some damage. The best way to place a bet here is on the Guardians to win this game.

Padres Guardians Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Sunday, July 21, 2024 (1:40 pm ET start time) is Guardians 4 Padres 1.

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San Diego Padres: 6-3 (+4.25 units) on the moneyline in their last 9 games. 30-17 (+13.10 units) on the runline in their last 47 away games. 

Cleveland Guardians: 6-12 (-6.80 units) on the first 5 moneyline in their last 18 games. 26-12 to the over with their team total in their last 38 home games. 57-40 to the over with their team total in their last 97 games.

San Diego Padres:  W. Peralta (RP) Out indefinitely - Groin. Y. Darvish (SP) Out indefinitely - Elbow. T. Cosgrove (RP) Out indefinitely - Elbow. J. Musgrove (SP) Out indefinitely - Elbow. F. Tatis Jr. (RF) Late July - Quadricep. L. Patino (SP) out for season - Elbow.

Cleveland Guardians:  S. Hentges (RP) Late July - Shoulder. T. Stephan (RP) out for season - Elbow. J. Karinchak (RP) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. S. Bieber (SP) out for season - Elbow.

“We started off pretty good and got Bibee’s pitch count up, but we couldn’t get anything going. We are hitting the ball hard, but right at people.” - Manny Machado after their loss against the Guardians in their game on Friday.

“We’ve got a good balance where we are right now, somewhere between let’s keep doing what we’re doing and let’s turn it up a lot. We’re in a major buy-mode (at the trade deadline), I hope.” - Tanner Bibee after their win against the Padres in their game on Friday.

L Arraez (L) DH

J Profar (S) LF

J Cronenworth (L) 1B

M Machado (R) 3B

X Bogaerts (R) 2B

J Merrill (L) CF

D Peralta (L) RF

H Kim (R) SS

K Higashioka (R) C

S Kwan (L) LF

A Martínez (S) CF

J Ramírez (S) 3B

J Naylor (L) 1B

D Fry (R) DH

A Gimenez (L) 2B

D Schneemann (L) SS

W Brennan (L) RF

B Naylor (L) C

Batting Average:  Matthew Batten (.333)

Hits:  Jurickson Profar (103)

Home Runs:  Fernando Tatis (14)

RBI:  Jurickson Profar (59)

Stolen Bases:  Ha-Seong Kim (18)

Wins:  Dylan Cease (8)

Saves:  Robert Suarez (22)

ERA:  Sean Reynolds (0.00)

Batting Average:  Steven Kwan (.354)

Hits:  José Ramírez (102)

Home Runs:  José Ramírez (23)

RBI:  José Ramírez (79)

Stolen Bases:  José Ramírez (18)

Wins:  Logan Allen (8)

Saves:  Emmanuel Clase (29)

ERA:  Shane Bieber (0.00)

Managers:

San Diego Padres: Mike Shildt (1st season)

Cleveland Guardians: Stephen Vogt (1st season)