by Hollywood Sports
Friday, Jun 30, 2023The Miami Heat were limping down the stretch in the NBA postseason with losses in six of their last eight games heading into Game Five of the NBA Finals against the Denver Nuggets. In the face of a crucial situation at home where they had the opportunity to even the series at 2-2, they instead lost by a 108-95 score as a 3-point underdog to give the Nuggets to return home to win the championship with a commanding 3-1 series lead.
But we had been riding the Heat for much of the playoff season — and they offered tremendous value as a big underdog getting eight or so points. After losing both games at home to the Nuggets, things were certainly dire for Miami to rally and win this series. But they seemed like they would be a tough out. I had comfortably concluded that the power rankings used to evaluate the Heat were off a bit since they are primarily relying on their regular season numbers where they experienced outlier shooting numbers from behind the arc.
After ranking 27th in the league by only making 34.4% of their 3-pointers in the regular season, that mark had improved to a 38.8% shooting percentage which leads all teams in the postseason. When Miami makes their 3s, they usually win. When they don’t, they are in trouble. In Game Four, the Heat only made 8 of 25 shots (32%) from behind the arc — and that was after only converting 11 of their 35 shots (31%) in Game Three. But the last time they played at Ball Arena in Game Two of the NBA Finals, they nailed 17 of their 35 shots (48.6%) from 3-point land.
There are a couple of dynamics when the series is 3-1 that came into play for that fifth game. For starters, the pressure drops for the team who is trailing since the deficit seems almost insurmountable. The Heat had covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, they had covered the point spread in 13 of their last 13 games on the road after losing three of their last four games. They had perhaps been more effective when playing on the road in the postseason where they have been nailing 40.3% of their 3-pointers. Miami had covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road — and they had covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on their home court. The Heat had also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 road games when getting 6.5 to 12 points. Miami had covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss to their opponent — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games when motivated to avenge two straight losses by ten or more points to their opponent.
The other thing about 3-1 leads is that they tend to compel the leader to take their foot off the accelerator — especially when that team has two of the remaining three games scheduled on their home court. Denver had been great all season — but one of the flaws of that group is their tendency to get complacent. Remember the 13-2 run that Miami went on to begin the fourth quarter of Game Two? The Heat went on a big run to start the fourth quarter in Game Four — but the Nuggets were able to push back even with Nikola Jokic sitting on the bench with five fouls. That resiliency probably won them the NBA Championship — but it was not going to help them avoid thinking they can simply flip the switch when they need to with the luxury of being back on their home court for Game Five. Denver won both games in Miami by 13 and 15 points — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 25 games after winning their last two games by double-digits. They had also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after winning their last two games on the road by 10 or more points. And while the Nuggets had covered the point spread in five of their last six contests, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after covering the point spread in five or six in their last seven games.
Miami did get off to a fast start in Game Five as they went into halftime with a 51-44 lead. And while the Nuggets only scored 40 points in the second half, the lack of reliable scoring options for the Heat reared its ugly head as they were only able to score 43 points in the second half. Denver won the game by a 94-89 score to claim their first NBA championship. But they did not cover the eight or so points they were laying — and we won our NBA Game of the Year on Miami plus the points.
Best of luck — Frank.
But we had been riding the Heat for much of the playoff season — and they offered tremendous value as a big underdog getting eight or so points. After losing both games at home to the Nuggets, things were certainly dire for Miami to rally and win this series. But they seemed like they would be a tough out. I had comfortably concluded that the power rankings used to evaluate the Heat were off a bit since they are primarily relying on their regular season numbers where they experienced outlier shooting numbers from behind the arc.
After ranking 27th in the league by only making 34.4% of their 3-pointers in the regular season, that mark had improved to a 38.8% shooting percentage which leads all teams in the postseason. When Miami makes their 3s, they usually win. When they don’t, they are in trouble. In Game Four, the Heat only made 8 of 25 shots (32%) from behind the arc — and that was after only converting 11 of their 35 shots (31%) in Game Three. But the last time they played at Ball Arena in Game Two of the NBA Finals, they nailed 17 of their 35 shots (48.6%) from 3-point land.
There are a couple of dynamics when the series is 3-1 that came into play for that fifth game. For starters, the pressure drops for the team who is trailing since the deficit seems almost insurmountable. The Heat had covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, they had covered the point spread in 13 of their last 13 games on the road after losing three of their last four games. They had perhaps been more effective when playing on the road in the postseason where they have been nailing 40.3% of their 3-pointers. Miami had covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road — and they had covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on their home court. The Heat had also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 road games when getting 6.5 to 12 points. Miami had covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss to their opponent — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games when motivated to avenge two straight losses by ten or more points to their opponent.
The other thing about 3-1 leads is that they tend to compel the leader to take their foot off the accelerator — especially when that team has two of the remaining three games scheduled on their home court. Denver had been great all season — but one of the flaws of that group is their tendency to get complacent. Remember the 13-2 run that Miami went on to begin the fourth quarter of Game Two? The Heat went on a big run to start the fourth quarter in Game Four — but the Nuggets were able to push back even with Nikola Jokic sitting on the bench with five fouls. That resiliency probably won them the NBA Championship — but it was not going to help them avoid thinking they can simply flip the switch when they need to with the luxury of being back on their home court for Game Five. Denver won both games in Miami by 13 and 15 points — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 25 games after winning their last two games by double-digits. They had also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after winning their last two games on the road by 10 or more points. And while the Nuggets had covered the point spread in five of their last six contests, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after covering the point spread in five or six in their last seven games.
Miami did get off to a fast start in Game Five as they went into halftime with a 51-44 lead. And while the Nuggets only scored 40 points in the second half, the lack of reliable scoring options for the Heat reared its ugly head as they were only able to score 43 points in the second half. Denver won the game by a 94-89 score to claim their first NBA championship. But they did not cover the eight or so points they were laying — and we won our NBA Game of the Year on Miami plus the points.
Best of luck — Frank.
