Purdue Boilermakers vs Houston Cougars Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 03/28/2025

Game Time: 10:09 pm ET, Friday, March 28, 2025

Venue:  Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN

Where to Watch:  TBS, truTV

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Purdue +8.5, Houston -8.5; Over/Under:  132.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Purdue +8.5, Houston -8.5; Over/Under:  132.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Purdue +8.5, Houston -8.5; Over/Under:  132.5 points

Purdue Boilermakers:  24-11 (13-7) (6th place, Big Ten)

Houston Cougars:  32-4 (19-1) (1st place, Big 12)

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Purdue Boilermakers:  3-2  last 5

Houston Cougars:  5-0  last 5

Purdue is entering this game with a 24-11 record overall, a 13-7 record in conference games, and they are 5-3 in their neutral site games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a win against the McNeese State Cowboys in their last game. Trey Kaufman-Renn led the team in points in that game with 22 while Fletcher Loyer was next on the team with 15. Fletcher Loyer and Braden Smith each led the team in assists with 5 in that game while Trey Kaufman-Renn led the team in rebounds with 15. They were 45.1% from the field, 42.3% from 3-point range, and 82.6% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 77.7 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 70.6 PPG against them. Purdue has an ATS record of 19-16 this season and their O/U record is 20-15.

Houston is entering this game with a 32-4 record overall, a 19-1 conference record, and they are 6-3 in their neutral site games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a win against the Gonzaga Bulldogs in their last game. LJ Cryer led the team in points in that game with 30 while J'wan Roberts was next on the team with 18. Milos Uzan led the team in assists with 8 in that game while Joseph Tugler led the team in rebounds with 11. They were 46.8% from the field, 50% from 3-point range, and 75% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 74.5 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 58.4 PPG against them. Houston has an ATS record of 19-16-1 this season and their O/U record is 15-20-1.

The current betting odds have Houston listed as an 8.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Houston has looked great in their games this season with their 32-4 record overall and their 19-1 conference record which had them right at the top of the Big 12. They are 6-3 in neutral site games this season and they have been ranked like one of the best teams in the nation all year. Meanwhile, Purdue has looked good in their games this season with their 24-11 record overall and their 13-7 conference record which had them in the top half of the Big Ten. They haven't looked as good in neutral site games as they are 5-3 in those. Purdue has looked good in this tournament so far, but they weren't playing great to end the season and they haven't really been tested in this tournament either. They didn't go far in the Big Ten Tournament and have looked a lot better in their 2 games of this tournament, but they also played against much lesser teams, beating High Point in the 1st round and McNeese in the last. Houston has been one of the best teams in the nation all season, earning a number 1 seed and dominating their conference in both the regular season and the conference tournament. They also looked great in the first 2 rounds as they blew out the 16 seed SIU-Edwardsville and beat Gonzaga by 5 in a game they were leading comfortably the entire time. Houston has been elite both offensively and defensively all season, this is their game to lose. The best way to place a bet here is on Houston to cover the spread in this game. 

Purdue Houston Prediction:  Our NCAAB Pick for Friday, March 28, 2025 (10:09 pm ET start time) is Houston 77 Purdue 62.

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Purdue Boilermakers: 5-10 1H ATS when playing with 5 or 6 days rest. 4-11 1H ATS when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days. 1-4 1H ATS versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 37% of their attempts or more. 25-17 UNDER in non-conference games. 8-1 UNDER when seeded 4 or higher in the NCAA tournament. 

Houston Cougars: 25-18 ATS in non-conference games. 9-3 ATS versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 45% or more. 41-29 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 turnovers/game or less. 9-5 UNDER after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games. 29-16 UNDER in non-conference games.

Purdue Boilermakers:  D. Jacobsen (C) Out - Knee.

Houston Cougars:  R. Walker (G) Out - Hand. J. McFarland (C) Out - Leg.

“We can’t go further without playing great offensively. We have to execute well, we have to shoot the ball well. That’s not really pressure, that’s just a fact.” - Matt Painter after his team’s win against McNeese in the 2nd round of the NCAA Tournament. 

“It's not just winning the game. It's beating a great program like Gonzaga.” - Kelvin Sampson after his team’s win against Gonzaga in the 2nd round of the NCAA Tournament.

C. Cox 

C. Furst 

T. Kaufman-Renn 

F. Loyer 

B. Smith

L. Cryer 

J. Roberts 

E. Sharp 

J. Tugler 

M. Uzan

PPG: T. Kaufman-Renn (20.2)

APG: B. Smith (8.7)

Reb/G: T. Kaufman-Renn (6.2)

PPG: L. Cryer (15.6)

APG: M. Uzan (4.4)

Reb/G: J. Roberts (6.3)

Coaches:

Purdue Boilermakers: Matt Painter (20th season)

Houston Cougars: Kelvin Sampson (11th season)