Playing the Rebound

What does one do with a "good" team on a losing streak? For handicappers who choose not to ignore such teams completely, there are generally two schools of thought.

1. Keep playing against the team and ride the losing streak. 
2. Try to predict when the losing streak will stop.

Neither is easy. There are usually reasons why the team is losing. Predicting the end of a skid can be tough. That said, good teams don't keep losing forever. So, continuing to play against them can also prove costly. However, there's also a third way that I sometimes use to deal with these situations. Let's take a closer look at a recent example from the NBA. 

Most would consider the Atlanta Hawks to be a reasonably decent team. Coming off a strong performance in last year's playoffs, the Hawks had high hopes for this season. Yet, for most of December and the first half of January, they could barely win a game. From 12/3 to 1/15, they were just 5-15. That included an 0-5 stretch from 1/7 to 1/15. 

The biggest reason for the Hawks' struggles was a depleted lineup. They were missing numerous players, due to Covid and injury. As mentioned, there are usually reasons why good teams go on a losing streak. 

I stayed away from playing on/against Atlanta during the skid. However, the Hawks slowly started to get healthy. On 1/12, they were hosting the Heat. Miami was also starting to deal with some missing players. I tried to predict the end of the streak and played on the Hawks. At the time, Atlanta had dropped three straight. As mentioned, predicting the end of a streak can be tricky. In this case, it proved costly. The Hawks lost again. 

I won with the total in the Hawks' next game (Knicks on 1/15) but didn't play on them again. Good thing, too. They lost for the fifth straight time. On 1/17, the Hawks were hosting the Bucks. Call me stubborn but I decided to play on them again. I knew they were getting healthier and suggested that a visit from the defending champs would prove to be just what the doctor ordered. This time, the underdog Hawks rewarded me with a 121-114 victory. 

It's the next game or two, after the streak is finished and a team is in "on the rebound," where we can often find the best plays. Confidence and momentum restored, the losing streak in the rear view mirror, good teams tend to go on a bit of a winning streak. After they beat Milwaukee, I continued to play on the Hawks. I backed them on 1/19 against Minnesota and again on 1/22 against Miami. They won both games. At that point, the Hawks went on the road and I decided not to press my luck. I kicked myself for not doing so though, as they won easily, at Charlotte. All the same, they came through for me three straight times. 

You'll regularly find similar situations throughout the season. Next time a good team snaps a lengthy losing streak, if all else lines up with your handicapping, take a look at that same team in its next game.