Pittsburgh Pirates vs Houston Astros Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/31/2024

Game Time: 8:10 pm ET, Wednesday, July 31, 2024

Venue:  Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX

Where to Watch:  MLB Network

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Pirates +180, Astros -218; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Pirates +180, Astros -220; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Pirates +180, Astros -220; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

Pittsburgh Pirates:  54-52 (3rd place, NL Central)

Houston Astros:  55-51 (1st place, AL West)

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Pittsburgh Pirates:  6-4 last 10

Houston Astros:  5-5 last 10

The Pirates are entering this series off a win and lost their 3-game series against the Arizona Diamondbacks 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 54-52 record overall and have a road record of 28-26. This is the series finale of a 3-game series with the Astros on Wednesday with the 2nd game of this series still to be played on Tuesday. The Pirates won the series opener of this series on Monday. Their offense ranks 28th in the MLB with a .669 OPS. Bailey Falter is their starting pitcher on Tuesday while Martín Pérez is making his start in this game on Wednesday. He is 2-5 with a 5.20 ERA this season. His team won their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 0 ER, 0 HR, and 5 BB with 2 Ks on 4 hits through 6 IP against the St Louis Cardinals.

The Astros are entering this series off a loss and won their 3-game series against the Los Angeles Dodgers 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 55-51 record overall and have a home record of 30-23. This is the 3rd game of a 3-game series with the Pirates on Wednesday with the 2nd game of this series still to be played on Tuesday. The Astros lost the 1st game of this series on Monday. Their offense ranks 9th in the MLB with a .740 OPS. Hunter Brown is their starting pitcher on Tuesday while Framber Valdez is making his start in this game on Wednesday. He is 9-5 with a 3.43 ERA this season. His team won their last 6 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 0 earned runs, 0 homers, and 2 BB with 10 strikeouts on 4 hits through 6.1 innings played against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The current betting odds have the Astros listed as a big favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Astros have looked good in their games this season with their 55-51 record overall which has them leading the AL West but also fighting off the Mariners in 2nd place who are right on their tail. They have looked a lot better in their home games this season with their 30-23 home record. Meanwhile, the Pirates have looked good in their games this season with their 54-52 record overall which has them in 3rd place of the NL Central and trying to climb back into playoff contention. They have looked better in their road games too with their 28-26 road record. The Pirates took the 1st game of this series on Monday and they have been the slightly hotter team lately, going 6-4 in their last 10 games while the Astros are 5-5, but the Astros do have the more favorable pitching matchup here which will give them the edge in this one. The Astros are going with Valdez in this one and he has been a solid starter for them all season. He is 9-5 with a 3.43 ERA and hasn't been giving up many runs lately. He gave up no runs in his last start and the team has had a ton of success with him on the mound lately, winning 6 games in a row with him starting. The Pirates are going with Perez in this one and he hasn't looked good this season. He is 2-5 with a 5.20 ERA and has been giving up a ton of runs all year. He did have a good start in his last outing, giving up no runs in that one, but that hasn't been a common theme for him lately. The team has won 2 games in a row with him starting but he isn't going to replicate his great performance from his last start and will give up more runs against this better Astros offense. The Astros are trying to hold onto the division now that they have the lead so they will be looking to get hot here and go on a run. The best way to place a bet here is on the Astros to win this game.

Pirates Astros Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Wednesday, July 31, 2024 (8:10 pm ET start time) is Astros 6 Pirates 2.

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Pittsburgh Pirates: 45-44 (-5.10 units) on the first 5 runline in their last 89 games. 29-16 to the under in their last 45 games. 55-41 to the under with their team total in their last 96 games. 

Houston Astros: 22-12 (+8.35 units) on the moneyline in their last 34 games. 32-20 (+13.20 units) on the runline in their last 52 games. 53-37 to the under in their last 90 games. 

Pittsburgh Pirates:  J. Bae (CF) Ques Tues - Knee. J. Palacios (RF) Ques Tues - Hamstring. N. Gonzales (2B) Out indefinitely - Groin. H. Stratton (SP) day-to-day - Tricep. B. Falter (RP) Ques Tues - Arm. D. Jefferies (RP) Out indefinitely - Elbow. J. Jones (SP) Out indefinitely - Back. R. Borucki (RP) Out indefinitely - Wrist. D. Moreta (RP) out for season - Elbow. J. Oviedo (SP) out for season - Elbow. E. Rodriguez (C) out for season - Elbow.

Houston Astros:  K. Graveman (RP) out for season - Shoulder. J. Verlander (SP) Early July - Neck. C. Javier (SP) out of season - Forearm. J. Urquidy (SP) out for season - Forearm. B. Sousa (RP) out for season - Shoulder. O. Ortega (RP) Late July - Elbow. P. Murfee (SP) Mid July - Elbow. L. McCullers Jr. (SP) Early July - Forearm. L. Garcia (SP) Mid July - Elbow. K. Tucker (RF) Out indefinitely - Shin.

“Full team win. I think grit is a good word. We’ve had to use a lot of people in the last two days, and we’ve had a lot of people really step up in big moments. So overall, two good team victories.” - Derek Shelton after his team’s win against the Astros in their game on Monday.

“Offensively, this guy can get barrel to the ball. He can hit the ball hard. He's doing a nice job protecting Yordan Alvarez.” - Joe Espada on Yainer Diaz after his team’s loss against the LA Dodgers in their game on Sunday.

J Palacios (L) RF

B Reynolds (S) LF

O Cruz (L) SS

R Tellez (L) 1B

J Bart (R) DH

K Hayes (R) 3B

J Bae (L) CF

J Triolo (R) 2B

Y Grandal (S) C

J Altuve (R) 2B

A Bregman (R) 3B

Y Alvarez (L) LF

Y Diaz (R) DH

J Peña (R) SS

J Singleton (L) 1B

J Meyers (R) CF

V Caratini (S) C

T Cabbage (L) RF

Batting Average:  Bryan Reynolds (.288)

Hits:  Bryan Reynolds (118)

Home Runs:  Bryan Reynolds (18)

RBI:  Bryan Reynolds (61)

Stolen Bases:  Ke'Bryan Hayes (10)

Wins:  Mitch Keller (10)

Saves:  David Bednar (19)

ERA:  Paul Skenes (1.90)

Batting Average:  César Salazar (.318)

Hits:  Jose Altuve (132)

Home Runs:  Yordan Alvarez (20)

RBI:  Yainer Diaz (57)

Stolen Bases:  Jose Altuve (15)

Wins:  Ronel Blanco (9)

Saves:  Josh Hader (20)

ERA:  Dylan Coleman (0.00)

Managers:

Pittsburgh Pirates: Derek Shelton (5th season)

Houston Astros: Joe Espada (1st season)