Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/28/2024

Game Time: 4:10 pm ET, Sunday, July 28, 2024

Venue:  Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ

Where to Watch:  Sportsnet PT

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Pirates -120, Diamondbacks +100; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Pirates -120, Diamondbacks +100; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Pirates -120, Diamondbacks +100; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

Pittsburgh Pirates:  52-51 (3rd place, NL Central)

Arizona Diamondbacks:  54-50 (3rd place, NL West)

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Pittsburgh Pirates:  7-3 last 10

Arizona Diamondbacks:  7-3 last 10

The Pirates are entering this series off a win and won their 3-game series against the St Louis Cardinals 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 52-51 record overall and have a road record of 26-25. This is the series finale of a 3-game series with the Diamondbacks on Sunday with the 2nd game of this series still to be played on Saturday. The Pirates lost the series opener of this series on Friday. Their offense ranks 27th in the MLB with a .668 OPS. Marco Gonzales is their starting pitcher on Saturday while Mitch Keller is making his start in this game on Sunday. He is 10-5 with a 3.34 ERA this season. His team won their last 3 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 1 ER, 1 HR, and 2 BB with 3 Ks on 6 hits through 7 IP against the St Louis Cardinals.

The Diamondbacks are entering this series off a win and won their 3-game series against the Kansas City Royals in their last series. They enter this game with a 54-50 record overall and have a home record of 27-24. This is the 3rd game of a 3-game series with the Pirates on Sunday with the 2nd game of this series still to be played on Saturday. The Diamondbacks won the 1st game of this series on Friday. Their offense ranks 9th in the MLB with a .736 OPS. Brandon Pfaadt is their starting pitcher on Saturday while rookie pitcher Yilber Díaz is making his start in this game on Sunday. He is 1-1 with a 5.40 ERA this season. His team lost 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 7 earned runs, 1 homer, and 1 BB with 0 strikeouts on 9 hits through 3 innings played against the Kansas City Royals.

The current betting odds have the Pirates listed as a slight favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Diamondbacks have looked good in their games this season with their 54-50 record overall which has them in 3rd place of the NL West and slowly getting back into the playoff race. They have looked better in their home games too with their 27-24 home record. Meanwhile, the Pirates have also looked good in their games this season with their 52-51 record overall which has them in the middle of the NL Central and getting themselves into the playoff race too. They have looked better in their road games with their 26-25 road record. Both of these teams have looked really good lately with both being 7-3 in their last 10 games, but the Pirates have the edge with the pitching matchup here so they will be looking to take advantage of that. They have Keller on the mound in this one and he is 10-5 with a 3.34 ERA. He leads the starting rotation in wins this season with 10 and they have been finding a lot of success with him lately, winning 3 games in a row with him starting. He only gave up 1 earned run in his last start too which has been a common theme for him this year, having one of his best seasons in years. The Diamondbacks have Diaz on the mound here and he hasn't really been much of a starter this season, but he has struggled in the role the few times he has had to start. He is 1-1 with a 5.40 ERA and coming off a terrible start which he gave up 7 earned runs in, only making it 3 innings too. His team has lost 2 of their last 3 games with him starting and the bullpen hasn't really been that good either, the Diamondbacks winning most of their games lately with good offense. The Diamondbacks won't be able to put up a ton of runs in this one with Keller on the mound and that will give the Pirates a good chance at taking a game in this series with the better pitching right now. The best way to place a bet here is on the Pirates to win this game.

Pirates Diamondbacks Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Sunday, July 28, 2024 (4:10 pm ET start time) is Pirates 5 Diamondbacks 2.

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Pittsburgh Pirates: 28-32 (+10.80 units) on the first 5 moneyline in their last 60 games. 38-27 (+9.90 units) on the runline in their last 65 games. 28-14 to the under in their last 42 games. 

Arizona Diamondbacks: 16-23 (-4.35 units) on the first 5 moneyline in their last 39 home games. 19-26 (-11.55 units) on the first 5 runline in their last 45 home games.

Pittsburgh Pirates:  B. Reynolds (LF) Out indefinitely - Back. B. Falter (RP) Out indefinitely - Arm. D. Jefferies (RP) Out indefinitely - Elbow. J. Jones (SP) Out indefinitely - Back. H. Stratton (SP) Prob Sat - Tricep. R. Borucki (RP) Out indefinitely - Wrist. D. Moreta (RP) out for season - Elbow. J. Oviedo (SP) out for season - Elbow. E. Rodriguez (C) out for season - Elbow.

Arizona Diamondbacks:  E. Rodriguez (SP) Mid Jul - Shoulder. B. Walston (SP) Late Aug - Elbow. M. Kelly (SP) Mid Aug - Shoulder. D. Jameson (RP) out for season - Elbow. K. Nelson (RP) out for season - Shoulder.

“We had strong at-bats but we didn't finish. We had first and second in the seventh, then second and third in the eighth and did not have productive at-bats.” - Derek Shelton after his team’s loss against the Diamondbacks in their game on Friday.

“Just a hard-fought win against a good baseball team. Those are the types of things we've been doing a lot lately. We hang in there, duke it out, find a little crack and then string together some good at-bats.” - Torey Lovullo after his team’s win against the Pirates in their game on Friday.

A McCutchen (R) DH

O Cruz (L) SS

N Gonzales (R) 2B

R Tellez (L) 1B

J Palacios (L) RF

K Hayes (R) 3B

J Suwinski (L) LF

J Bart (R) C

M Taylor (R) CF

C Carroll (L) RF

K Marte (S) 2B

J Pederson (L) DH

C Walker (R) 1B

L Gurriel Jr. (R) LF

G Moreno (R) C

E Suárez (R) 3B

A Thomas (L) CF

G Perdomo (S) SS

Batting Average:  Bryan Reynolds (.288)

Hits:  Bryan Reynolds (117)

Home Runs:  Bryan Reynolds (18)

RBI:  Bryan Reynolds (61)

Stolen Bases:  Oneil Cruz (9)

Wins:  Mitch Keller (10)

Saves:  David Bednar (18)

ERA:  Colin Holderman (1.67)

Batting Average:  Jose Herrera (.304)

Hits:  Ketel Marte (114)

Home Runs:  Christian Walker (23)

RBI:  Christian Walker (70)

Stolen Bases:  Corbin Carroll (20)

Wins:  Zac Gallen (8)

Saves:  Paul Sewald (16)

ERA:  Justin Martinez (1.64)

Managers:

Pittsburgh Pirates: Derek Shelton (5th season)

Arizona Diamondbacks: Torey Lovullo (8th season)