Game Time: 9:30 PM ET, Friday, May 6th, 2022 

Venue:   American Airlines Center, Dallas, Texas 

Where to Watch: ESPN

DraftKings:  Suns -1; O/U 220

Fanduel:  Suns -.5; O/U 220

BetMGM: Suns -1; O/U 219.5

Suns: 64-18, 1st place Western Conference

Mavericks: 52-30, 4th pace Western Conference

Has the world gone crazy?  An NBA Playoff Game 3 in the Second Round.  The #1 Seed is up 2-0, the #4 Seed is down 0-2… and the point spread has SHRUNK?.  Did Vegas not see the first two games?... Does Vegas think a game in Dallas is going to intimidate CP3 and Devin Booker or Deandre Jordan? Maybe Vegas thinks PG Luka Doncic of the Mavericks will beat the all-time single game scoring record set by Wilt Chamberlain?... Will Luka score 101?  What is the obtuse thinking here?  Why am I so certain.. And Vegas is offering you free money?.  I have been wrong before… though my +/- stats pays dividends in a holding account.  What am I missing?  Could the best team in basketball (The Phoenix Suns) brace themselves for a let down game?... Let’s look closely at the numbers.  Seriously… I am mystified at the point spread.

The Phoenix Suns have won 7 of the last 10 games.  Including 3 regular season games.  They went 8-2 ATS during that stretch.  This team has hit a real stride.  They are great at defense and great at offense and really deep.  They won the first two games of this second round series.. They covered both spreads.  The Suns spent the last game eye to eye and ear to ear with the Dallas Mavericks until the 4th quarter when they pulled away to a 129-109 win… and obvious win ATS.  In that win, Point God Chris Paul scored 28 points with 8 assists and 6 rebounds… he killed it.  He wasn’t alone.  SG Devin Booker logged 30 points on 11 of 19 shooting.  Basic contributions form C Deandre Jordan, SF Mikal Bridges, and PF Jae Crowder led to an easy win.  This Suns team has great depth with PG Cameron Payne, C JaVale McGee, and SG Landry Shamet,, and they barely used any of those guys.  PG Aaron Holiday and Pg Elfrid Payton .. both good NBA players… got DNPs.  It all seems easy for the Suns at the moment… but then Vegas sees a road downfall?.... For a team that had a winning record on the road during the regular season?

The Dallas Mavericks have been licked around and laughed at.  Mavs owner Mark Cuban barely shows his face.  The best Mavericks player ever (PG Luka Doncic) has not gotten the courtside seat treatment from the owner that the former regime of Dirk Nowiztski and Steve Nash got… because we all know.  The Mavs have won 6 of their last ten games including the last two regular season games. They went 6-4 ATS during that span.  The last two games against the Phoenix Suns have been losses and BIG losses ATS.  In the last loss to the Suns 129 - 109.  Pg Luka Doncic had 35 points 7 assists, and 5 rebounds… and the Suns did not care.  Only 2 other Mavericks hit double digits in point sand it was the usual suspect of Reggie Bullock and Spencer Dinwiddie… and they got 16 points and 11 points.  The Suns will goad PG Luka Doncic into scoring 40+ points anytime they take the floor as long as they shut down the others… The Suns will always win a game like that.  Can SG Jalen Brunson get more production? Spencer Dinwiddie? Maxi Kleber?.. Dorian Finney-Smith?... sure… but Luka’s usage rate is so f’ing high that anyone stepping up means Luka steps down. That is a recipe for a bad roster.  Larry Bird had super high usage rates… Micheal Jordan had super high usage rates.,. Magic Johnson… etc… The difference is there was always another guy to take the load or get the board at a higher rate.  The Mavs are undercooked jello, which means if they ever find another player they might fully form.

Team Del Genio is 25-9 in the last 30 days of NBA betting.  The TEAM is killing the playoffs and if you had bet along with them you would be up +$15,100.  Get Team Del Genio’s picks now!  Don’t miss out on these great chances to beat your Book! Make winning the thing you do from now on!! Stay with BigAl.com throughout the NBA Playoffs and let’s grow that bankroll! You can discover the best  picks right now at the Shop Picks page, where you can find all of the Best Bets from our champion sports handicappers. NCAAF, NFL, MLB, college football… get positive value from all your bets! Expert picks!  Fun fact… winning a wager is much better than making a wager!

The Suns are 68-20 on the season, but 50-40 ATS.  They have logged 46 Overs, 43 Unders, and 1 Push.  They are 34-10 in road games.

The Mavericks are 56-32 on the season, but 51-38-1 ATS.  They have notched 35 Overs, 54 Unders, and 1 Push.  They are 31-13 in home games.

The Suns are 5th in scoring with 114-87 ppg, 1oth in rebounds with 45.3 per game, and 2.1 AST/To ratio with 2.1.  On defense they rank 9th while allowing 107.3 ppg from opponents.

The Mavericks are 24th in scoring with 108.0 ppg, 24th in rebounds with 43 per game, and 9th in AST/TO ratio with 1.9.  On defense they rank 2nd while holding opponents to 104.7 ppg.  

Our prediction for Friday, May 6th is….. Suns 128 - Mavericks 112

Ignore the shorter spread and simply bet the Suns.  This series is a sweep if it is anything.  Dallas will have to make major roster decisions… all things are as they appear.  I would also parlay the Over as the Mavs are at home.

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Phoenix is 4-0 ATS versus Dallas at Dallas the last 3 seasons.

Phoenix is 16-4 ATS when the spread is +3 to -3 this season.

Dallas is 39-21 ATS when the total is set at 210-219.5 this season.

Dallas is 34-13 ATS off a road loss the last 3 seasons.

Suns: Dario Saric (knee) Out… He has missed all season.

Mavericks: Sg Tim Hardaway JR (foot) Has missed several months.

Suns: SF Mikal Bridges, PF Jae Crowder, C Deandre Ayton, SG Devin Booker, PG Chris Paul

Mavericks: SF Dorian Finney-Smith, PFD Reggie Bullock, C Dwight Powell, SG Jalen Brunson, PG Luka Doncic

Suns: Monty “superhero” Williams

Mavericks: Jason “Supervilian” Kidd