by Chuck Sommers
Friday, Aug 20, 2021
Game time: 10:10 p.m. ET
Venue: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
Where to watch: NBCSP, Bally Sports San Diego, MLB Network
Season-to-date
Phillies: 61-60 (2nd place, NL East)
Padres: 67-56 (3rd place, NL West)
Recent form
Phillies: 3-7 in last 10, lost four straight
Padres: 3-7 in last 10, lost three straight
Projected lineup
Phillies:
Jean Segura (R) 2B
J.T. Realmuto (R) C
Bryce Harper (L) RF
Andrew McCutchen (R) LF
Alec Bohm (R) 1B
Didi Gregorius (L) SS
Ronald Torreyes (R) 3B
Luke Williams (R) CF
Matt Moore (L) P
Padres:
Adam Frazier (L) 2B
Fernando Tatis Jr. (R) RF
Manny Machado (R) 3B
Jake Cronenworth (L) SS
Austin Nola (R) C
Eric Hosmer (L) 1B
Wil Myers (R) LF
Trent Grisham (L) CF
Blake Snell (L) P
Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Padres -225, Phillies +185
BetMGM: Padres -225, Phillies +180
FanDuel: Padres -230, Phillies +190
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Phillies - Padres preview
In a matchup where both teams are in desperate need of some wins, the Philadelphia Phillies continue their west coast road trip when they visit the San Diego Padres for the beginning of a three-game series Friday at Petco Park.
It wasn’t that long ago when the Phillies and Padres were setting themselves up for solid runs heading into October. The Phillies were leading the National League East only a few weeks ago, while the Padres were hanging around long enough to stay in the National League West race. If anything, the Padres were more than snug into that second NL Wild Card spot.
But the tables have turned greatly, both out of favor for Philadelphia and San Diego. The Phillies have lost four in a row and are coming off being swept by the Arizona Diamondbacks this week. And if you’re wondering, those three wins pushed Arizona out of the worst record in the major leagues.
Not only did the Phillies get swept, they scored two runs in each of the three losses. Zack Wheeler pitched well through six innings and only allowed one run, but then got blasted for five runs in the seventh and was finished after 6.2 IP in the 6-2 loss on Thursday for the sweep.
The Phillies bullpen did its job through this series allowing one combined run. The starters stayed in for too long and fell victim to the timely D-Backs.
Philadelphia has lost seven of nine since the seven-game winning streak that vaulted the Phillies into first place. Since then, the Atlanta Braves have leapfrogged them with a six-game winning streak and lead the Phillies by four games. Matt Moore is expected to be the starting pitcher for the Phillies.
It hasn’t been any better for the Padres over the last month and some change. On July 6, the Padres were only 3.5 games behind the San Francisco Giants for first place in the National League West. Now, San Diego has to hope it makes the playoffs at all.
The Padres have fallen 8.5 games out of the standings since July 6 and now trail the Giants by 12 games in the division. They’ve hung on to the second wild card spot for the majority of that time, but even that’s now in jeopardy. The Cincinnati Reds are only one game back of the Padres, and they just won the first matchup in a four-game series against the Miami Marlins on Thursday.
San Diego was hoping the return of Fernando Tatis Jr. would propel them for one more push, but it’s been a mess. The Padres have lost seven of eight; the only win was Tatis Jr.’s return to the lineup when he hit two home runs. San Diego followed that by getting swept by the Colorado Rockies. The last time the Padres won consecutive games in a row, they were against the Diamondbacks and Marlins.
The Padres signed Jake Arrieta to bolster their already-stout rotation, but it didn’t help Wednesday when San Diego lost 7-5 in the former Cy Young winner’s debut. He left after 3.1 IP with a hamstring injury, so that’s going well. Wil Myers had three RBI in the loss.
San Diego will turn to its top pitcher right now, Blake Snell, to hopefully right the ship again. The former Cy Young winner is 6-4 in 22 starts with a 4.80 ERA in his first season with the Padres. He’s won his last three starts but has given up 15 runs in his past five overall. He’s had a bounce-back August (1.29 WHIP, 3 ER) after getting shelled for seven earned runs July 28 against Oakland.
Betting trends
The Phillies are 7-2 in Moore’s starts (+7.9) while an underdog with the over cashing six of eight times.
In a five-game span of batting .200 or worse, the Phillies are 2-7 (-8).
Following a loss of four or more runs, the Phillies are 19-8 (+11.4).
As a home favorite, the Padres are 38-21 (-0.5) and 40-24 at home overall.
Prediction
Which team do you trust to overcome their struggles? When in doubt, take the home team and hope they regain their bats after a long road trip. It’s just too unknown with the Phillies to trust them. Padres win 8-5.
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
