Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/19/2024

Game Time: 6:40 pm ET, Friday, July 19, 2024

Venue:  PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA

Where to Watch:  Sportsnet PT

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Phillies -135, Pirates +114; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Phillies -135, Pirates +115; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Phillies -135, Pirates +115; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

Philadelphia Phillies:  62-34 (1st place, NL East)

Pittsburgh Pirates:  48-48 (3rd place, NL Central)

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Philadelphia Phillies:  5-5 last 10

Pittsburgh Pirates:  7-3 last 10

The Phillies are entering this series off a loss and lost their 3-game series against the Oakland Athletics 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 62-34 record overall and have a road record of 25-18. This is the series opener of a 3-game series with the Pirates on Friday and they have had 4 days off as rest with the MLB All-Star break. Their offense ranks 3rd in the MLB with a .755 OPS. Orion Kerkering was their starting pitcher on Sunday while Aaron Nola is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 11-4 with a 3.38 ERA this season. His team won their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 1 ER, 1 HR, and 2 BB with 9 Ks on 4 hits through 6 IP against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The Pirates are entering this series off a win and completed the sweep in their 3-game series against the Chicago White Sox 3-0 in their last series. They enter this game with a 48-48 record overall and have a home record of 22-24. This is the 1st game of a 3-game series with the Phillies on Friday and they have had 4 days off as rest with the MLB All-Star break. Their offense ranks 27th in the MLB with a .669 OPS. Mitch Keller was their starting pitcher on Sunday while Martín Pérez is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 1-5 with a 5.15 ERA this season. His team lost their last 4 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 5 earned runs, 1 homer, and 3 BB with 5 strikeouts on 9 hits through 4.2 innings played against the Milwaukee Brewers.

The current betting odds have the Phillies listed as a favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Phillies have looked great in their games this season with their 62-34 record overall which has them leading the NL East with the best record in the entire MLB. They have looked good in their road games with their 25-18 road record and will be looking to bounce back out of the break after losing their last series to the A's, losing that last game 18-3 too. Meanwhile, the Pirates haven't looked great in their games this season with their 48-48 record overall and their 22-24 home record. They got off to a hot start at the beginning of the season, but they regressed after a few weeks ago and have been under .500 over the last few weeks. They finally pulled themselves above .500 with their 7-3 record over their last 10 games, but the All-Star break is going to be a big momentum killer for this team that hasn't been very consistent all season. They have Perez on the mound here and he hasn’t looked good this year with his 1-5 record and his 5.15 ERA. He gave up 5 earned runs in his last start and the team has lost 4 games in a row with him starting, and he always has the potential to get blown up on the mound, especially against an offense like the Phillies who are one of the best in the MLB. The Phillies will have Nola on the mound here and he is 11-4 with a 3.38 ERA this season, leading the starting rotation in wins. He has looked great lately with the team winning 2 games in a row with him starting, and that has been a common theme for them with Nola on the mound this year. The Phillies usually get hot coming out of the break and Nola will be looking to pitch another great outing after giving up just 1 earned run in his last start. The best way to place a bet here is on the Phillies to win this game.

Phillies Pirates Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Friday, July 19, 2024 (6:40 pm ET start time) is Phillies 6 Pirates 2.

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Philadelphia Phillies: 54-26 (+13.55 units) on the moneyline in their last 80 games. 53-28 (+20.40 units) on the first 5 moneyline in their last 81 games. 53-38 to the under in their last 91 games. 

Pittsburgh Pirates: 39-46 (-8.65 units) on the moneyline in their last 85 games. 22-12 to the under in their last 34 games. 54-38 to the under with their team total in their last 92 games. 

Philadelphia Phillies:  L. Ortiz (RP) out for season - Ankle. R. Suarez (SP) Prob Mon - Back. Z. Wheeler (SP) Prob Mon - Back. S. Turnbull (SP) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. T. Walker (SP) Out indefinitely - Finger. J. Realmuto (C) Out indefinitely - Knee. M. Rucker (RP) Out indefinitely - Finger. D. Covey (RP) Out indefinitely - Shoulder.

Pittsburgh Pirates:  B. Falter (RP) Out indefinitely - Arm. D. Jefferies (RP) Out indefinitely - Elbow. J. Jones (SP) Out indefinitely - Back. H. Stratton (SP) Out indefinitely - Tricep. R. Borucki (RP) Out indefinitely - Wrist. M. Perez (SP) Mid June - Groin. D. Moreta (RP) out for season - Elbow. J. Oviedo (SP) out for season - Elbow. E. Rodriguez (C) out for season - Elbow.

“They've been grinding for a while now. I think everybody needs the four days off.” - Rob Thomson after his team’s loss against the A’s in their game on Sunday.

“I guess I understand it. It’s just tough to understand it. I want to be out there.” - Mitch Keller after their win against the White Sox in their game on Sunday.

K Schwarber (L) DH

T Turner (R) SS

B Harper (L) 1B

A Bohm (R) 3B

B Stott (L) 2B

N Castellanos (R) RF

B Marsh (L) LF

J Rojas (R) CF

G Stubbs (L) C

A McCutchen (R) DH

B Reynolds (S) LF

O Cruz (L) SS

N Gonzales (R) 2B

R Tellez (L) 1B

K Hayes (R) 3B

J Palacios (L) RF

J Bart (R) C

J Suwinski (L) CF

Batting Average:  Trea Turner (.349)

Hits:  Alec Bohm (107)

Home Runs:  Bryce Harper (21)

RBI:  Alec Bohm (70)

Stolen Bases:  Bryson Stott (22)

Wins:  Aaron Nola (11)

Saves:  José Alvarado (13)

ERA:  Jeff Hoffman (1.12)

Batting Average:  Joshua Palacios (.286)

Hits:  Bryan Reynolds (110)

Home Runs:  Bryan Reynolds (18)

RBI:  Bryan Reynolds (61)

Stolen Bases:  Ke'Bryan Hayes (8)

Wins:  Mitch Keller (10)

Saves:  David Bednar (17)

ERA:  Colin Holderman (1.77)

Managers:

Philadelphia Phillies: Rob Thomson (3rd season)

Pittsburgh Pirates: Derek Shelton (5th season)