by Rod Pearson
Monday, Dec 30, 2024
Game Time: 7:30 pm ET, Tuesday, December 31, 2024
Venue: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ
Where to Watch: ESPN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: PSU -11.5, BSU +11.5; Over/Under: 53.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: PSU -11, BSU +11; Over/Under: 53.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: PSU -11, BSU +11; Over/Under: 53.5 points
Season Record
Penn State Nittany Lions: 12-2 (8-1) (2nd place, Big Ten)
Boise State Broncos: 12-1 (7-0) (1st place, MWC)
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Recent Form
Penn State Nittany Lions: won their last game at home against the SMU Mustangs 38-10.
Boise State Broncos: won their last game at home against the UNLV Rebels 21-7.
Penn State Nittany Lions vs Boise State Broncos Preview and Analysis
Penn State is entering this game with a 12-2 record overall and they have an 8-1 record in their conference games too. They are 7-1 in their home games, 5-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-1 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at a neutral site for this game. They won their last game against SMU 38-10. Drew Allar was the starting QB and he completed 13/22 passes for 127 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Nick Singleton led the team in rushing yards with 90 and 1 TD. Harrison Wallace III led the receivers with 48 receiving yards on 4 receptions. Kobe King led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while Dani Dennis-Sutton led the defense in sacks with 1.5. Dominic DeLuca came away with 2 interceptions for them while Tony Rojas came away with 1 INT in that one.
Boise State is entering this game with a 12-1 record overall and they have a 7-0 record in their conference games too. They are 7-0 in their home games, 5-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at a neutral site for this game. They won their last game against UNLV 21-7. Maddux Madsen was the starting QB and he completed 18/27 passes for 158 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. Ashton Jeanty led the team in rushing yards with 209 and 1 TD. Matt Lauter led the receivers with 62 receiving yards on 5 receptions. Seyi Oladipo led the defense in that game with 9 solo tackles and 1 assisted tackle while Marco Notarainni led the defense in sacks with 2. Jeremiah Earby came away with the only interception for them in that one.
Penn State vs Boise State Prediction
The current betting odds have Penn State listed as an 11.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Penn State has looked great in their games this season with their 12-2 record overall and their 8-1 conference record which has them right near the top of the Big Ten. They went to the Big Ten Championship and lost to Oregon 45-37, but they looked great in the first round of the playoffs with a 38-10 win over SMU. They did have home advantage in that game and won't have it here, but their offense has looked great lately and their defense hasn't been giving up many points all season either. Meanwhile, Boise State has looked great in their games this season with their 12-1 record overall and their 7-0 conference record which has them at the top of the MWC. They got a bye in the first round of the CFP and their last game was a 21-7 win over UNLV in the MWC Championship, but they did have home advantage for that one. They have the best running back in the nation who was a Heisman candidate this year, but their defense has been a big issue for them. They have an offense that can put up a lot of points, but they will struggle more against this better defense. They have also been giving up a ton of points in their games against better offenses and Penn State has been putting up a ton of points lately. Boise State will only be able to do so much here until Penn State starts to pull away. The best way to place a bet here is on Penn State to cover the spread in this game.
Penn State Boise State Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Tuesday, December 31, 2024 (7:30 pm ET start time) is Penn State 35 Boise State 14.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
Penn State Nittany Lions: 25-14 ATS in all lined games. 24-9 ATS as a favorite. 9-3 ATS in non-conference games. 14-7 ATS after playing a game at home. 12-3 OVER when the total is between 49.5 and 56. 8-4 OVER in non-conference games. 6-3 OVER off a home blowout win by 28 points or more.
Boise State Broncos: 0-3 ATS in a bowl game. 2-6 ATS when the total is between 49.5 and 56. 4-9 ATS in non-conference games. 24-17 OVER in all lined games. 10-5 OVER in non-conference games. 6-2 OVER versus good offensive teams - averaging 425 yards/game or more.
Key Injuries
Penn State Nittany Lions: A. Donkoh (OL) Out - Knee. K. Wylie (LB) Questionable - Undisclosed. K. Winston (SAF) Questionable - Undisclosed. C. Wallace (RB) Questionable - Lower Body. K. Saunders (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. A. Rappleyea (TE) Questionable - Undisclosed. T. Denmark (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. K. Artis (DT) Questionable - Undisclosed. T. Mills (SAF) Questionable - Undisclosed. A. Ford (DT) Out - Lower Body. Z. Fisher (DE) Out - Undisclosed.
Boise State Broncos: T. Keinath (OL) Questionable - Undisclosed. A. Teubner (SAF) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Steele (OL) Questionable - Undisclosed. C. Marshall (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. S. Gaines (RB) Questionable - Knee. K. Anderson (TE) Out - Knee.
Notable Quotes
“In January when they were playing tug of war on the field with their shirts off, they talked about what they wanted to do this season. They wanted to win a conference championship and make it to the college playoffs, and they worked for that.” - Spencer Danielson after his team’s win against UNLV in the MWC Championship.
“We're a college football program that everybody should be proud of because those guys are doing it the right way at a time when it’s more challenging than it’s ever been.” - James Franklin after his team’s win against SMU in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Penn State Nittany Lions
WR Wallace III, Harrison
WR Evans, Omari
WR Clifford, Liam
TE Warren, Tyler
QB Allar, Drew
RB Singleton, Nicholas
Boise State Broncos
WR Bolt, Austin
WR Camper, Cameron
WR Caples, Latrell
TE Lauter, Matt
QB Madsen, Maddux
RB Jeanty, Ashton
Statistical Leaders
Penn State Nittany Lions
Passing: D. Allar (3021)
Rushing: N. Singleton (928)
Receiving: T. Warren (1095)
Touchdowns: N. Singleton (13)
Boise State Broncos
Passing: M. Madsen (2714)
Rushing: A. Jeanty (2497)
Receiving: C. Camper (837)
Touchdowns: A. Jeanty (30)
Coaches:
Penn State Nittany Lions: James Franklin (11th season)
Boise State Broncos: Spencer Danielson (2nd season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
