by Tom Stryker
Friday, Oct 27, 2023Huge upsets are a part of college football. They happen every year and they’re hard to predict. Emotionally, the team that pulls off the shocking defeat is usually on “Cloud 9” all week long and difficult to ground.
With that thought in mind, I didn’t want to look at schools coming off a stunning straight up home dog win. Instead, I wanted to pay special attention to those squads that went on the road as big underdogs and left a hostile environment with the “W”. Here’s what I discovered.
Since 1980, PLAY AGAINST any college home underdog or favorite of -3 or less provided they take the field off exactly one straight up win as a conference road dog of +10 or more in their last game.
43-Year ATS Record = 92-53-5 ATS for 63.4 percent
This Week’s Play = NEW MEXICO
Here we have an emotionally spent college football team that is competitively priced coming off one of their biggest victories of the season. Even the sound of that makes me want to fade the team coming off the upset win. There is validity to that statement, too. As you know, college football is all about emotion. Once you pull off a massive upset on the conference road, it has to be difficult to carry that same level of play to the next game especially matched up against a quality opponent. This system proves that theory right. Last Saturday, Nevada (+11.5) strolled into California and upset San Diego State by the final of 6-0. That means head coach Ken Wilson and his troops apply to this negative angle.
There is one strong tightener that can be added to this general situation that makes it even more profitable. If our “play against” guest is tackling a foe that carries a won/loss percentage of .425 or better, this system drops to a stiff 37-78-4 ATS. The Wolfpack are facing a Lobos bunch that holds a team won/loss percentage of .428 and they apply to this special parameter.
Good luck with New Mexico on Saturday! Go Lobos!
