Once Again, UConn Was Inevitable

After UConn and Purdue won their final four games to reach the national championship game, it created a showdown between the two number-one seeds. 

At first glance, it looked tough to lay six to seven points against this talented and determined Boilermakers squad that had won eleven of their last twelve games. Yet UConn had won eleven straight games in the NCAA tournament by 13 or more points. While it is difficult to repeat as national champions, the Huskies had already done most of the heavy lifting to get back to the title game. They took Alabama’s best punches early in their final four games as the Crimson Tide hit eight of their first eleven shots from 3-point land. Midway through the first half, the Huskies trailed, 23-18. Yet Alabama only made three of their last twelve shots from 3-point land while UConn would outscore them, 68-49, to win the game by an 86-72 score. 

Purdue, on the other hand, looked shaky in their 63-50 victory against North Carolina State in their national semifinal game. The Boilermakers made only 40.0% of their shots and turned the ball over 16 times. Sophomore point guard Braden Smith only connected on one of his nine shots and committed five turnovers himself. He was called for two over-and-back backcourt violations early in the game which might have been a product of nerves. 

UConn had a big advantage in the backcourt with their talented guards, Tristen Newton and Stephon Castle. Newton brought the experience of being in the starting five in last year’s championship run. Purdue still had Zach Edey yet this will be one of the rare times when he does not have a significant size edge against his opponent. Donovan Clingan is 7’2 and perhaps the best defensive center in the country. Edey needed to win this one-on-one battle by a decisive margin to make up for the advantage UConn has with their guards. That seemed unlikely, especially since Edey had played at least 38 minutes in three straight games making fatigue a factor working against him. Clingan has played less than 30 minutes in each of the games in the NCAA tournament.

Purdue took plenty of 3-pointers and there was always a chance that they could get red-hot with these shots. This was how Creighton beat the Huskies the last time they lost a game in February. But head coach Dan Hurley was well-versed in preparing his teams to defend against this style of play. The Huskies were difficult to beat by relying on 3-pointers. Their opponents made only 31.4% of these shots against them which was the 42nd-best mark in the country. UConn did a great job getting shooters off the 3-point line as well. Their opponents took only 33.4% of their shots from 3-point land which is the 50th lowest mark. Overall, the Huskies opponents scored only 28.2% of their shots from 3-pointers. That mark ranked 263rd lowest in the country and is far below the 30.4% national average. 

In his seventeen games in the NCAA tournament coaching for Rhode Island or UConn, Hurley’s teams had covered the point spread fourteen times. UConn had covered the point spread in twenty-eight of their last thirty-three games against non-conference opponents under Hurley. Take away the non-conference games when the Huskies were favored by 20 or more points and UConn had won and covered the point spread in twenty-one of those twenty-two non-conference games. 

The Huskies could get hot from 3-point land themselves which would make the Boilermakers task nearly impossible. They had their best shooting performance from 3-point land in the NCAA tournament against Alabama by making 10 of their 25 shots from distance. UConn averages 24 shots from behind the 3-point line, and Purdue had covered the point spread in three of their last nine games after fifteen games against teams who average 21 or more 3-point attempts per game. 

Finally, the outstanding defense that the Huskies played should not have been dismissed lightly. They ranked fourth in the country in defensive efficiency and had held their first four opponents to 58 or fewer points before Alabama scored 72 against them. The Huskies allowed only 63.5 points per game, and the Boilermakers had covered the point spread only once in their last seven games after fifteen games into the season against teams who do not allow more than 64 points per game. 

Our prognostication was rewarded by UConn’s 75-60 victory. The Huskies went into halftime with a 36-30 lead before slowly but methodically breaking the will of the Boilermakers in the second half to win their second straight national championship. 

Good luck - TDG.