Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks Prediction, Preview and Odds - 05/18/2024

Game Time: 8:00 pm ET, Saturday, May 18, 2024

Venue:  American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX 

Where to Watch:  ABC

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Thunder +4, Mavericks -4; Over/Under:  209.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Thunder +4, Mavericks -4; Over/Under:  209.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Thunder +3.5, Mavericks -3.5; Over/Under:  209.5 points

Oklahoma City Thunder:  57-25 (1st place, Northwest Division)

Dallas Mavericks:  50-32 (1st place, Southwest Division)

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Oklahoma City Thunder:  7-3 last 10

Dallas Mavericks:  7-3 last 10

The Thunder are entering this game with a 57-25 record overall to finish the regular season and they were 24-17 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a loss against the Dallas Mavericks in their last game. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the team in points in that game with 30 while Chet Holmgren was next on the team with 13 points. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the team in assists in that game with 8 while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luguentz Dort, and Jalen Williams each led the team in rebounds with 6. They were 42.5% from the field, 25% from 3-point range, and 80% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 120.1 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 112.7 PPG against them. The Thunder have an ATS record of 51-39-1 this season and their O/U record is 46-42-3.

The Mavericks are entering this game with a 50-32 record overall to finish the regular season and they were 25-16 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a win against the Oklahoma City Thunder in their last game. Luka Dončić led the team in points in that game with 31 while Derrick Jones Jr. was next on the team with 19 points. Luka Dončić led the team in assists in that game with 11 while Luka Dončić, P.J. Washington, and Dereck Lively II each led the team in rebounds with 10. They were 52.6% from the field, 40% from 3-point range, and 76.9% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 117.9 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 115.6 PPG against them. The Mavericks have an ATS record of 55-38 this season and their O/U record is 40-52-1.

The current betting odds have the Mavericks listed as a 4 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 6 of a 7 game series between the 1st seeded Thunder and the 5th seeded Mavericks for Round 2 of the NBA Western Conference playoffs. The Mavericks have a 3-2 series lead after winning game 5 of this series on the road. The Mavericks ended their last series against the Clippers in 5 games and now they have the number 1 seed in the West on the verge of elimination here going back to Dallas. The Thunder have been a really good road team this year, but they have still looked a lot better in their home games all season and they have already lost 2 of the 3 home games in this series. The Thunder were the number 1 seed in the West for a reason this season, but the Mavericks also have a really good team that was banged up a lot during the regular season. Now the Mavericks have been healthy lately and playing at their best while this Thunder team is really good, but still has one of the youngest rosters in the entire NBA and lacks the experience in the playoffs that players on the Mavericks have. The Mavericks ended their series against the Clippers in 6 games and they are going to end this series the same way in 6 games in front of the home crowd. The best way to place a bet here is on the Mavericks to cover the spread in this game. 

Thunder Mavericks Prediction:  Our NBA Pick for Saturday, May 18, 2024 (8:00 pm ET start time) is Mavericks 110 Thunder 98.

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Oklahoma City Thunder: 24-15 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less. 9-3 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more. 17-6 ATS after scoring 105 points or less in 3 straight games. 10-3 UNDER as a road underdog of 6 points or less. 20-9 UNDER after allowing 105 points or less. 8-4 UNDER revenging a home loss vs opponent.

Dallas Mavericks: 4-9 ATS off an upset win as an underdog. 12-6 UNDER as a home favorite of 6 points or less. 12-1 UNDER off an upset win as an underdog. 34-21 UNDER after 1 or more consecutive wins. 38-23 UNDER after a combined score of 205 points or less. 

Oklahoma City Thunder:  None.

Dallas Mavericks:  M. Kleber (PF) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. O. Prosper (PF) Out Indefinitely - Ankle. G. Brown III (SF) Out indefinitely - Personal.

“Our mood won’t change, our mentality won’t change. It’s one game at a time. We wanted to win this game tonight as badly as we’re going to want to win the next game.” - Shai Gilgeous-Alexander after their loss against the Mavericks in game 5 of this series on Wednesday. 

“He was aggressive. He was making shots, taking shots. The deep 3, being able to get to the basket, playmaking for his bigs and also for the wings.” - Jason Kidd after his team’s win against the OKC Thunder in game 5 of this series on Wednesday.

PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

SG Isaiah Joe

SF Luguentz Dort

PF Jalen Williams

C Chet Holmgren

PG Luka Doncic

SG Kyrie Irving

SF Derrick Jones Jr.

PF P.J. Washington 

C Daniel Gafford

PPG: S. Gilgeous-Alexander (30.1)

APG: S. Gilgeous-Alexander (6.2)

Reb/G: C. Holmgren (7.9)

PPG: L. Doncic (33.9)

APG: L. Doncic (9.8)

Reb/G: L. Doncic (9.2)

Coaches:

Oklahoma City Thunder: Mark Daigneault (4th season)

Dallas Mavericks: Jason Kidd (3rd season)