Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks Prediction, Preview and Odds - 01/17/2025

Game Time: 8:30 pm ET, Friday, January 17, 2025

Venue:  American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX 

Where to Watch:  KFAA

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Thunder -6, Mavericks +6; Over/Under:  222.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Thunder -6, Mavericks +6; Over/Under:  222.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Thunder -6, Mavericks +6; Over/Under:  222.5 points

Oklahoma City Thunder:  33-6 (1st place, Northwest Division)

Dallas Mavericks:  22-19 (3rd place, Southwest Division)

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Oklahoma City Thunder:  9-1 last 10

Dallas Mavericks:  2-8 last 10

The Thunder are entering this game with a 33-6 record overall this season and they are 16-4 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 3 game winning streak with wins coming against the New York Knicks, the Washington Wizards, and the Philadelphia 76ers, but this is also the 2nd game of a back-to-back for them with their game against the Cleveland Cavaliers still to be played on Thursday night. In their game against the 76ers, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the team in points in that game with 32 while Jalen Williams was next on the team with 24 points. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the team in assists in that game with 9 while Isaiah Hartenstein led the team in rebounds with 16. They were 55.6% from the field, 33.3% from 3-point range, and 88.9% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 116.2 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 103.4 PPG against them. The Thunder have an ATS record of 25-12-3 this season and their O/U record is 19-20-1.

The Mavericks are entering this game with a 22-19 record overall this season and they are 12-8 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 3 game losing streak with losses coming against the Denver Nuggets twice in a row and the New Orleans Pelicans. Daniel Gafford led the team in points in that game with 27 while Jaden Hardy was next on the team with 21 points. Naji Marshall led the team in assists in that game with 10 while P.J. Washington led the team in rebounds with 14. They were 47.8% from the field, 34.3% from 3-point range, and 72% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 115.6 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 112.2 PPG against them. The Mavericks have an ATS record of 19-21-1 this season and their O/U record is 20-21.

The current betting odds have the Mavericks listed as a 6.5 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Mavericks have looked good in their games this season with their 22-19 record overall which has them right in the middle of the West. They have looked better on their home court this season with their 12-8 home record, but they haven't looked good lately. They are 2-8 in their last 10 games and have lost 3 games in a row now as they haven't looked good without Doncic in their lineup, but they are coming off a really close road loss to the Pelicans in their last one and they will be looking to bounce back here since they are catching their opponent in a bad situation. Meanwhile, the Thunder have looked great in their games this season with their 33-6 record overall which leads the West with one of the best records in the entire NBA. They have been a great road team too with their 16-4 road record. They are 9-1 in their last 10 games and have a ton of momentum on their side with 3 wins in a row now, but they are also playing this game on a back-to-back. They aren't in a great situation since they are playing at home on Thursday night and have to go to Dallas for this game on Friday, and it doesn't help that their game on Thursday is against the Cavaliers who have the best record in the NBA. The Thunder are going to be more focused on winning that game, especially since they lost in Cleveland last week, so they could be running on empty for this game against the Mavericks and the Mavs are going to be desperate for a win here. The best way to place a bet here is on the Mavericks to cover the spread in this game. 

Thunder Mavericks Prediction:  Our NBA Pick for Friday, January 17, 2025 (8:30 pm ET start time) is Thunder 112 Mavericks 109.

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Oklahoma City Thunder: 36-21 ATS against Southwest division opponents. 36-19 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game. 25-13 ATS in January games. 32-24 UNDER against Southwest division opponents. 

Dallas Mavericks: 9-17 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%). 11-27 ATS in January games. 46-33 UNDER versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game. 19-12 UNDER versus good defensive teams - allowing 108 points/game or less.

Oklahoma City Thunder:  I. Hartenstein (C) Out - Calf. C. Holmgren (PF) Out - Hip. A. Mitchell (SG) Out - Toe. N. Topić (PG) Out For Season - ACL.

Dallas Mavericks:  K. Irving (PG) Day To Day - Back. D. Lively (C) Day To Day - Ankle. D. Exum (PG) Out - Wrist. L. Dončić (PG) Out - Calf.

"Overall on the trip, I thought there were a lot of positives. (We) took a step forward. We're better now than we were when we left home, and that's the goal when you leave for an eight-day road trip." - Mark Daigneault on his team’s recent road trip.

"The league wants to get it right. The referees have a tough job. They clearly did not get that right, and it cost us maybe the game." - Jason Kidd after his team’s loss against the Pelicans in their game on Wednesday.

PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

SG Cason Wallace

SF Luguentz Dort

PF Jalen Williams

C Jaylin Williams

PG Spencer Dinwiddie

SG Klay Thompson

SF Naji Marshall

PF P.J. Washington

C Daniel Gafford

PPG: S. Gilgeous-Alexander (31.4)

APG: S. Gilgeous-Alexander (6)

Reb/G: I. Hartenstein (12.2)

PPG: L. Dončić (28.1)

APG: L. Dončić (7.8)

Reb/G: L. Dončić (8.3)

Coaches:

Oklahoma City Thunder: Mark Daigneault (5th season)

Dallas Mavericks: Jason Kidd (4th season)