by Vegas Writer
Wednesday, Apr 03, 2024We're about a week into Major League Baseball's schedule, and I'm already prepared to implement a new betting system.
Who knows, maybe it isn't new.
What I do know is that through six games, by betting against the Oakland Athletics on the run line, you'd be 4-2 thus far.
Last year, of Oakland's 112 losses, 85 were by two or more runs. That means you would have gone 85-77 against the Athletics on the run line.
I don't have the net profit on those games, but I do know per EV Analytics, you'd be down -15.0 units if you bet Oakland run line every game.
Per Statfox, the margin is even greater, as you'd be down 28.7 units.
Understandably, the numbers could be skewed in either direction, depending on the prices each database is using.
So how would you start this system?
Money management is key, obviously. As is discipline. You cannot press outside the designated range when you're winning, and you cannot scale too far back when you're losing. Stick to the program.
Designate a specific amount toward this system only, and for the entire season. Let's use $1,000 as a base, for easy arithmetic.
Bet 5% of your bankroll every single day on the team playing Oakland, and on the run line. So, your first bet is $50.
This season, through Tuesday's 5-4 extra-inning loss to the Red Sox, I can tell you by betting Oakland's opposition on the run line would have brought back +2.79 units of your original starting point, based on closing numbers at DraftKings.
If you started at the beginning of the season, your first bet would have been Cleveland -1.5, +125 and you would have won $62.50.
Now your bankroll is $1,062.50, and the next bet would have been $53.12 on the Guardians -1.5, +124. You would have won $65.87, bringing your bankroll to $1,128.37.
Your next bet would have been for $56.41 on the Guardians, -1.5, +130. You would have won $73.34, bringing your bankroll to $1,201.71.
Your next bet would have been $60.08 on the Guardians -1.5, +130. You would have lost $60.08, dropping your bankroll to $1,141.63.
Your next bet would have been $57.08 on the Red Sox -1.5, +102. You would have won $58.22, bringing your bankroll to $1,199.85.
Finally, on Tuesday, your bet would have been $59.99 on the Red Sox -1.5, +102. You would have lost $59.99 and would have headed into Wednesday's action with your bankroll at $1,139.86.
Fact is, the fans don't care because the team is abandoning Oakland for Las Vegas. The players hate the organization and how things have been handled, not to mention the sideshow that's come with it. The owner is a cheapskate who hasn't invested in a franchise player in years.
How bad is this team? The collective base salary for the A's last year was $62,243,227. That's all things included, out the door.
Shohei Ohtani's base salary with the Dodgers is $75 million this year alone.
Believe me, the Athletics are pure value, like last season, when betting against them on the run line.
Who knows, maybe it isn't new.
What I do know is that through six games, by betting against the Oakland Athletics on the run line, you'd be 4-2 thus far.
Last year, of Oakland's 112 losses, 85 were by two or more runs. That means you would have gone 85-77 against the Athletics on the run line.
I don't have the net profit on those games, but I do know per EV Analytics, you'd be down -15.0 units if you bet Oakland run line every game.
Per Statfox, the margin is even greater, as you'd be down 28.7 units.
Understandably, the numbers could be skewed in either direction, depending on the prices each database is using.
So how would you start this system?
Money management is key, obviously. As is discipline. You cannot press outside the designated range when you're winning, and you cannot scale too far back when you're losing. Stick to the program.
Designate a specific amount toward this system only, and for the entire season. Let's use $1,000 as a base, for easy arithmetic.
Bet 5% of your bankroll every single day on the team playing Oakland, and on the run line. So, your first bet is $50.
This season, through Tuesday's 5-4 extra-inning loss to the Red Sox, I can tell you by betting Oakland's opposition on the run line would have brought back +2.79 units of your original starting point, based on closing numbers at DraftKings.
If you started at the beginning of the season, your first bet would have been Cleveland -1.5, +125 and you would have won $62.50.
Now your bankroll is $1,062.50, and the next bet would have been $53.12 on the Guardians -1.5, +124. You would have won $65.87, bringing your bankroll to $1,128.37.
Your next bet would have been for $56.41 on the Guardians, -1.5, +130. You would have won $73.34, bringing your bankroll to $1,201.71.
Your next bet would have been $60.08 on the Guardians -1.5, +130. You would have lost $60.08, dropping your bankroll to $1,141.63.
Your next bet would have been $57.08 on the Red Sox -1.5, +102. You would have won $58.22, bringing your bankroll to $1,199.85.
Finally, on Tuesday, your bet would have been $59.99 on the Red Sox -1.5, +102. You would have lost $59.99 and would have headed into Wednesday's action with your bankroll at $1,139.86.
Fact is, the fans don't care because the team is abandoning Oakland for Las Vegas. The players hate the organization and how things have been handled, not to mention the sideshow that's come with it. The owner is a cheapskate who hasn't invested in a franchise player in years.
How bad is this team? The collective base salary for the A's last year was $62,243,227. That's all things included, out the door.
Shohei Ohtani's base salary with the Dodgers is $75 million this year alone.
Believe me, the Athletics are pure value, like last season, when betting against them on the run line.
