by Rod Pearson
Wednesday, Jan 01, 2025
Game Time: 4:00 pm ET, Friday, January 3, 2024
Venue: Gerald J. Ford Stadium, Dallas, TX
Where to Watch: ESPN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: UNT +13.5, TX State -13.5; Over/Under: 61.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: UNT +13.5, TX State -13.5; Over/Under: 61.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: UNT +13.5, TX State -13.5; Over/Under: 61.5 points
Season Record
North Texas Mean Green: 6-6 (3-5) (9th place, AAC)
Texas State Bobcats: 7-5 (5-3) (3rd place, Sun Belt West)
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Recent Form
North Texas Mean Green: won their last game on the road against the Temple Owls 24-17.
Texas State Bobcats: won their last game on the road against the South Alabama Jaguars 45-38.
North Texas Mean Green vs Texas State Bobcats Preview and Analysis
North Texas is entering this game with a 6-6 record overall and they have a 3-5 record in their conference games too. They are 3-3 in their home games, 3-3 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at a neutral site for this game. They won their last game against Temple 24-17. Chandler Morris was the starting QB and he completed 21/40 passes for 180 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. Makenzie McGill led the team in rushing yards with 155 and 2 TDs. DT Sheffield led the receivers with 47 receiving yards on 4 receptions and 1 TD. Quinton Hammonds led the defense in that game with 8 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while Ethan Wesloski and Jake Shipley each led the defense in sacks with 1. Brian Nelson II came away with the only interception for them in that one.
Texas State is entering this game with a 7-5 record overall and they have a 5-3 record in their conference games too. They are 4-3 in their home games, 3-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-1 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at a neutral site for this game. They won their last game against South Alabama 45-38. Jordan McCloud was the starting QB and he completed 21/28 passes for 248 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions. Ismail Mahdi led the team in rushing yards with 147 and 1 TD. Joey Hobert led the receivers with 80 receiving yards on 7 receptions and 1 TD. Kalil Alexander led the defense in that game with 3 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while Tavian Coleman led the defense in sacks with 3. Darius Jackson and Mannie Nunnery each came away with 1 interception for them in that one.
North Texas vs Texas State Prediction
The current betting odds have Texas State listed as a 13.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Texas State has looked good in their games this season with their 7-5 record overall and their 5-3 conference record which has them in the top half of their division in the SBC. They ended the season with a 45-38 win over South Alabama and they have a really good offense that has been putting up a ton of points in their games all year. Texas State also played in this very same bowl game last year which they won against Rice 45-21. Meanwhile, North Texas has looked good in their games this season with their 6-6 record overall which was enough to get them to this game, but their 3-5 conference record has them in the bottom half of the AAC. They weren't really great in their conference this year and they don't have a lot of strong teams in their conference either. They also struggled on offense at times while their defense was giving up a ton of points in their games against better offenses. They ended the regular season with a nice 24-17 road win over Temple, but Temple wasn't a great team this season and North Texas had to win that game just to get here. They had lost 5 games in a row before winning that final game of the season and they aren't going to have the offense to keep up with Texas State once they start to pull away. The best way to place a bet here is on Texas State to cover the spread in this game.
North Texas Texas State Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Friday, January 3, 2024 (4:00 pm ET start time) is Texas State 41 North Texas 21.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
North Texas Mean Green: 4-1 ATS as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points. 12-6 ATS after playing their last game on the road. 9-4 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game. 11-2 OVER in non-conference games. 7-3 OVER off a win against a conference rival. 11-5 OVER after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins.
Texas State Bobcats: 1-5 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 250 or more passing yards/game. 3-6 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 425 yards/game or more. 2-5 ATS versus good rushing teams - averaging 4.75 rushing yards/carry or more. 11-5 OVER when the total is between 56.5 and 63. 9-4 1H OVER after scoring 37 points or more last game.
Key Injuries
North Texas Mean Green: I. Ragsdale (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed. O. Hammond (TE) Questionable - Undisclosed. D. Harris (RB) Out - Undisclosed. I. Young (SAF) Out - Undisclosed.
Texas State Bobcats: D. Donley (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed.
Notable Quotes
"We want to find (Mestemaker) skill sets and the things he does well and really try to force-feed him some of those things. That's the cool thing. There's no tape on Drew Mestemaker for anybody to go study right now." - Eric Morris on his team playing in the First Responders Bowl.
"Coach Morris is one of the best offensive minds in the country. It doesn't matter who is back there playing quarterback." - G.J. Kinne on playing in the First Responders Bowl.
Starting Lineups
North Texas Mean Green
WR Carnes, Dalton
WR Ward Jr., Damon
WR Sheffield, DT
WR Sides, Landon
TE Hammond, Oscar
QB Morris, Chandler
RB Porter, Shane
Texas State Bobcats
WR Dawn Jr., Chris
WR Williams, Jaden
WR Wilson, Kole
WR Hobert, Joey
TE Fox, Konner
QB McCloud, Jordan
RB Mahdi, Ismail
Statistical Leaders
North Texas Mean Green
Passing: C. Morris (3774)
Rushing: S. Porter (643)
Receiving: D. Sheffield (822)
Touchdowns: D. Sheffield (12)
Texas State Bobcats
Passing: J. McCloud (2915)
Rushing: I. Mahdi (991)
Receiving: J. Hobert (661)
Touchdowns: J. Hobert (8)
Coaches:
North Texas Mean Green: Eric Morris (2nd season)
Texas State Bobcats: G.J. Kinne (2nd season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
