by Sean Murphy
Friday, Jan 08, 2021Betting opportunities abound with an unprecedented six NFL Wild Card showdowns on tap this weekend. Here's a look at one player prop to consider from each of Saturday's three playoff contests (lines taken from BetOnline but widely available, with numbers varying, at most sportsbooks).
Colts vs. Bills
Colts RB Jonathan Taylor over 77.5 rushing yards
While game script could certainly work against super rookie Taylor in this game (the Bills are favored by nearly a touchdown), I don't expect the Colts to stray away from him even if they do fall behind. Outside of Derrick Henry, few running backs were more dominant than Taylor down the stretch as he ripped off north of 130 rush yards per game over his last six contests. The strength of the Bills defense is in their secondary - they're relatively soft against the run, ranking 26th in yards per rush allowed (4.6). Also note that the Bills rank an identical 26th in opponent's rushing first down percentage. Expect Taylor to rip off enough big gains to get up and over this relatively low rushing yardage total.
Rams vs. Seahawks
Seahawks WR D.K. Metcalf under 62.5 receiving yards
Seattle QB Russell Wilson is likely going to have to look away from big play machine Metcalf in this one as D.K. will likely draw shadow coverage from Rams elite CB Jalen Ramsey. Note that Metcalf has surpassed 59 receiving yards just once in four career meetings with the Rams. We saw the Seahawks offense settle down as the season progressed, with far less being asked of Wilson compared to earlier in the campaign when the 'Let Russ Cook' talk reached a fever pitch. Metcalf topped out at six catches and went over 61 receiving yards just once over the regular season's final five games. Should the Seahawks build a lead as expected in a favored role at home, his likelihood of seeing a sudden increase in targets is diminished.
Buccaneers vs. Washington Football Team
Washington RB J.D. McKissic over 32.5 receiving yards
If there's one area in the Bucs defense that Washington's offense can exploit it's in the short passing game where RB McKissic was a force all season long. With Washington's two legitimate game-breakers in RB Antonio Gibson and WR Terry McLaurin both dealing with late season injuries, McKissic needs to be a part of the gameplan on Saturday night. Should WFT be playing much of this game from behind (as is expected as an eight-point underdog) it will be yielded the middle of the field by a Bucs defense that will be focused on taking away big splash plays through the air. With QB Alex Smith nursing a calf strain, he'll be looking to get the ball out quickly and McKissic should be a benefactor.
Colts vs. Bills
Colts RB Jonathan Taylor over 77.5 rushing yards
While game script could certainly work against super rookie Taylor in this game (the Bills are favored by nearly a touchdown), I don't expect the Colts to stray away from him even if they do fall behind. Outside of Derrick Henry, few running backs were more dominant than Taylor down the stretch as he ripped off north of 130 rush yards per game over his last six contests. The strength of the Bills defense is in their secondary - they're relatively soft against the run, ranking 26th in yards per rush allowed (4.6). Also note that the Bills rank an identical 26th in opponent's rushing first down percentage. Expect Taylor to rip off enough big gains to get up and over this relatively low rushing yardage total.
Rams vs. Seahawks
Seahawks WR D.K. Metcalf under 62.5 receiving yards
Seattle QB Russell Wilson is likely going to have to look away from big play machine Metcalf in this one as D.K. will likely draw shadow coverage from Rams elite CB Jalen Ramsey. Note that Metcalf has surpassed 59 receiving yards just once in four career meetings with the Rams. We saw the Seahawks offense settle down as the season progressed, with far less being asked of Wilson compared to earlier in the campaign when the 'Let Russ Cook' talk reached a fever pitch. Metcalf topped out at six catches and went over 61 receiving yards just once over the regular season's final five games. Should the Seahawks build a lead as expected in a favored role at home, his likelihood of seeing a sudden increase in targets is diminished.
Buccaneers vs. Washington Football Team
Washington RB J.D. McKissic over 32.5 receiving yards
If there's one area in the Bucs defense that Washington's offense can exploit it's in the short passing game where RB McKissic was a force all season long. With Washington's two legitimate game-breakers in RB Antonio Gibson and WR Terry McLaurin both dealing with late season injuries, McKissic needs to be a part of the gameplan on Saturday night. Should WFT be playing much of this game from behind (as is expected as an eight-point underdog) it will be yielded the middle of the field by a Bucs defense that will be focused on taking away big splash plays through the air. With QB Alex Smith nursing a calf strain, he'll be looking to get the ball out quickly and McKissic should be a benefactor.
