by Al McMordie
Saturday, Dec 23, 2023When it's holiday time, I like to turn to my late season NFL systems. And there's one I have been using for years to put some gifts under the Christmas tree. It combines several of my favorite elements into one very dependable system. Let's take a look.
Faithful followers know that one of the things I love to do when betting on NFL games is to take teams off a loss. The NFL is an up-and-down league, and when you can get a team off a loss rather than a win, you'll give yourself a slight edge (and even better if your team is off a loss, and its opponent is off a win).
Another thing I love is playing on home underdogs (or even PK'em teams). The edge is a slight one -- since 1980, they've cashed 51.7% of the time -- but I'd rather be on the 51.7% side than the 48.3% side!
When it comes to betting on the NFL around holiday time, I love the following system:
Play on any home underdog (or PK) in the final five weeks of the regular season if it is off a straight-up loss, and it owns a W/L percentage of .450 (or better).
Since 1980, our merry little system has rolled to a 112-69-5 ATS record.
Of course, there are certain subsets that do better than others. Some of the ones that stand out include:
Faithful followers know that one of the things I love to do when betting on NFL games is to take teams off a loss. The NFL is an up-and-down league, and when you can get a team off a loss rather than a win, you'll give yourself a slight edge (and even better if your team is off a loss, and its opponent is off a win).
Another thing I love is playing on home underdogs (or even PK'em teams). The edge is a slight one -- since 1980, they've cashed 51.7% of the time -- but I'd rather be on the 51.7% side than the 48.3% side!
When it comes to betting on the NFL around holiday time, I love the following system:
Play on any home underdog (or PK) in the final five weeks of the regular season if it is off a straight-up loss, and it owns a W/L percentage of .450 (or better).
Since 1980, our merry little system has rolled to a 112-69-5 ATS record.
Of course, there are certain subsets that do better than others. Some of the ones that stand out include:
- Underdogs of +4.5 (or more) points have gone 27-12 ATS.
- Fading opponents off an ATS loss is 55-25-1 ATS.
- Monday Night Football home teams have gone 11-2 ATS.
Last week, we did have the Monday Night Football home underdog in play, as Seattle (+4) upset Philadelphia, 20-17.
This week, we don't have any plays from my favored subsets, but we do have two plays from the general 112-69-5 ATS system.
One game is Saturday, while the other is Sunday.
Play on: Pittsburgh +3 over Cincinnati, and Minnesota +3 over Detroit.
Good luck, as always,
Al McMordie
