NFL Players to Avoid on Your NFL MVP Tickets

It is inevitable that a few studs get hurt each year in the preseason, or early on in the regular season, and go on to miss a significant portion of the year. Tom Brady in 2008, Jordy Nelson in 2015, or even Christian McCaffrey last season are prime examples of the injuries mishaps that can occur early in a NFL season. Accurately predicting these injuries is very difficult, but the best way to try is to look at a player’s usage and volume. Here are three players to watch in 2021 and avoid betting to win the MVP, including 2 longer shot RB's.

 

The former Ohio State Buckeye has been a workhorse since he entered the league in 2016. He has been in the top 2 in rushing attempts 3 of his 5 years and has accumulated over 1400 carries in total. Not many players at the running back position have had stretches of volume quite like that. With an average of 283 carries a year it may be time for the Cowboys to put Zeke on the carries diet. Reports on Elliott have been good out of camp, but his slimmer stature does not mix well with another 280+ carry season that he might see. Recent names like Adrian Peterson, Jamal Charles, and LeSean McCoy come to mind and are a reminder of how quickly running backs can be discarded for the next.

Derrick Henry +5000

Henry's usage has been ridiculous the last 2 seasons.  He has carried the ball almost 800 times.  Last season he had 378 carries (827 total touches) which was almost 70 more carries than the next highest RB.  That's the equivalent of almost 3.5 more "games" of carries if he averages 20 carries per game.  His 378 carries was the 19th most in a season in the history of the NFL and the most since 2014.  Each of the 18 RB's who had more than 378 carries in a season saw their production drop the following season and most fairly significantly.  Stay away from Henry as an MVP longshot.

 

The 2019 MVP has taken the league by storm in recent years and taken the Ravens to new heights. His crazy athleticism and immense rushing volume have helped this. Jackson broke Bill Shepard’s single season rushing attempt record (143 attempts) that had stood since 1935. Lamar did this in his rookie year (147 attempts) while only starting 7 games. He has continued the past 2 seasons with 176 and 159 rushing attempts. Quarterbacks are not meant to see that much usage on the ground and even a massive human like Cam Newton has been battered over the years. Lamar will likely see 140 rushing attempts again and that should give Ravens fans anxiety each time he leaves the pocket.