by Wayne Root
Wednesday, Aug 07, 2024By Wayne Allyn Root
Can you believe a bet on the Atlanta Falcons is a very wise and thought out wager at 12/1.
As I was leaving the casino yesterday, an older gentleman was flashing a Super Bowl bet he just made on the Kansas City Chiefs. As he was touting his geniuses, while not knocking it, I knew there were teams with much better value in betting NFL futures. Remember that word: VALUE.
Bet to win the NFC Conference
I want to discuss betting the Atlanta Falcons to win the NFC regular season giving them home field advantage throughout the playoffs. The current odds pay 12/1.
Atlanta’s offense will almost surely improve this season. Additionally, the Falcons finished as the only NFC South side with a winning record against playoff teams last season.
Key: Strength of Schedule
The Falcons have the easiest strength of schedule. That doesn’t necessarily mean that an over bet on number of wins has good value here until considering how they begin the season. If anything, they could struggle to start the season, playing a 2023 playoff team in 3 straight games to commence 2024.
Key start to the season:
New head coach Raheem Morris will face off against the man he replaced in the team’s Week 1 matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Falcons will then play the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday Night Football in Week 2 and the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 3.
Kirk Cousins is the regular season answer.
Before succumbing to injury last season, Cousins proved amongst the league’s best quarterbacks. Sample his first eight games, and bettors will find the Michigan State product produced a top rankings amongst quarterbacks with 200+ plays. He’s the Falcons starter.
The Falcons should easily win their division.
The NFC South is weak, and there really isn’t a solid QB in the entire division. While Cousins has been a strong option despite his struggles in the playoffs and in prime-time games, he’s still going to be the best option in the NFC South, making the Falcons to earn the outright bid a strong play. Their competition is basically Tampa Bay. New Orleans and Carolina won’t necessarily be in the hunt.
Last season for the Vikings, Kirk Cousins had 2,331 passing yards, 18 touchdowns and five interceptions. His completion percentage was 69.5% and he averaged 291.4 yards per game and 7.5 per attempt.
Offense this year:
Atlanta added Vikings’ QB Kirk Cousins in the offseason and then QB Michael Penix Jr. in the 1st round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Playmaking RB Bijan Robinson will spearhead the offense in 2024 and was the team’s 1st-round pick in the 2023 draft.
Last year over 17 games, Bijan Robinson racked up 976 rushing yards and scored four rushing touchdowns. He averaged 57.4 yards per game and 4.6 per attempt (11th in the NFL). Robinson's offensive contributions include 58 receptions (3.4 per game) on 86 targets for 487 yards (28.6 per game) and four receiving touchdowns.
Defense this year:
In 2023, Jessie Bates III amassed 132 tackles, 3.0 TFL, and six interceptions over 17 games.
Kaden Elliss had 4.0 sacks to go with 11.0 TFL and 122 tackles.
Nathan Landman had 110 tackles, 7.0 TFL, two sacks, and one interception in the 2023 campaign.
Richie Grant's season stats include 102 tackles, 3.0 TFL, three sacks, and one interception in 17 games.
Odds to win NFC South Division
While I am NOT betting the division race, these are the listed odds.
Falcons -120
Buccaneers +290
Saints +340
Panthers +1400
New Coach: New paths
The 2024 NFL schedule was released laying the path for the Atlanta Falcons to return to the playoffs following a six-year drought. Head coach Raheem Morris hasn’t shied away from expectations since being hired in January.
The other three (3) divisions:
As for a final thought, let’s look at the other three divisions and see if there are three teams out of four within their own division capable of
knocking each other off and costing them a shot a having the NFC’s best regular season record.
East:
Philadelphia, Dallas the combination of Washington and NY Giants will costs the division champs a game or two.
North:
This is the trickiest division. Chicago and Green Bay will be able to join Detroit in trading wins. However, the big advantage is the Lions play 14 games inside a dome.
West:
San Francisco could have two other teams that can beat up on the 49ers and each other. The second best teams are the Rams with Arizona right behind.
Remember that this is for the team that wins the NFC regular season and gets home field advantage for the playoffs. Kirk Cousins is not a candidate to continue his prowess of regular season victories and turn that success into a long run in the playoffs.
But the VALUE is too much to pass up.
