NFL MVP Wagers

Favorite - Joe Burrow (+1000)

Injuries have plagued Cincinnati's young QB in two of four years so far. The Bengals have the sixth easiest strength of schedule according to Sharp Football Analysis making 2024 a prime bounce back year for Joey B. Tee Higgins signed his Franchise Tag securing arguably the best WR duo in league for at least one more year. When Burrow has been healthy, he has played like an elite QB, averaging 4.5k yards, 34TDs, and 13INTs in his two full seasons, during which he was also the most sacked QB in the NFL. In those seasons, the Bengals averaged 11 wins and won the AFC North each year. Cincinnati used its first round pick to draft Amarius Mims and also added Trent Brown who will help keep Burrow upright. Teams wins are a huge factor in MVP voting, so with a relatively easy schedule, top notch weapons, and beefed up protection, Burrow is in store for double digit wins once again with stats to justify an MVP case.    

Sleeper - Justin Herbert (+2000) 

Herbert struggled last year as the Chargers took a step back because of injuries and poor coaching. Jim Harbaugh was brought in to right the ship and turnaround the Chargers perennial lack of clutchness. The pressure is off Herbert and no one seems to expect much of Los Angeles after letting Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Austin Ekeler walk. New weapons will need to step up but a more spread target share may be what Herbert needs, similar to the way Jordan Love excelled in Green Bay last season. In three healthy seasons Herbert averaged about 4.7k yards, 32TDs, and 12INTs. A major positive to sprinkling money on Herby is his durability, missing only four games in four seasons as a Charger. LA has the second easiest SOS heading into this year and its leader will have full control to change the culture and use his first class arm talent to climb back into the elite QB ranks. 

Longshot - Jared Goff (+4000)

Surprisingly Goff was second in the NFL in pass attempts last season (36 per game), even being in a run first offense. The Lions rolled through the NFC North and nearly went to the Super Bowl which raises the question as to why Goff did not receive one single MVP vote. He finished second in passing yards (4,575), fourth in passing TDs (30), only had 12INTs, and Detroit went 12-5. On top of that, he essentially had the exact same stats in 2022, repeating them for a second straight year and still seems to get disrespected as a system QB. David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs accounted for 23 rushing TDs also taking away some potential stats. The Lions remain the team to beat in the North, building up exactly what Dan Campbell promised. Looking like a top 5 offense once again, Goff has plenty of room for even better stats and maybe some respect in 2024.