NFL MVP Predictions

Justin Herbert (+1000) 

Lots of experts picked Herbert to break out last season after he threw for 38 touchdowns and 15 interceptions in 2021. Unfortunately, injuries to the WR room along with a stale offensive game plan centered around short passes, limited the Chargers young star. Austin Ekeler vulturing numerous redzone touchdowns played a huge part in why Herbert’s stats took a negative turn last year as well. GM Tom Telesco addressed some needs this offseason that will put their QB back into the MVP conversation for 2023. The hiring of Kellen Moore will open up Los Angeles’ deep passing game allowing Herbert to showcase his superhuman arm talent, and first round WR talent Quentin Johnston adds some much needed depth to a stacked but fragile WR room. Despite a disappointing 2022, Herbert still finished 2nd in passing yards with over 4700. If some positive touchdown regression returns to the Chargers QB, he will be in line for almost 5k yards with near 40 touchdowns, which is right in the ballpark of Patrick Mahomes MVP stats from last year (5250/41/12). Soon, Herbert will take the next step to a truly elite QB, similar to how Burrow and Allen have the past few years. 

Trevor Lawrence (+1600)

As a former number one overall pick in 2021, Lawrence has not lived up to expectations, yet he is not fully to blame, being on a lackluster Jaguars team the last two seasons. Finally, Jacksonville seems to be a stable organization, and even got Lawrence a shiny new weapon in Calvin Ridley. Coming off a solid year throwing over 4k yards, 25 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions, Lawrence is in a great spot to solidify himself as a top 10 QB. Passing volume is due to increase with the addition of Ridley and there is no question the former number one pick has the arm talent to compete with the elite QBs in the NFL. A realistic statline is 4800 yards, 35 touchdowns and under 10 interceptions. Jacksonville has the 10th easiest strength of schedule and is favored to win the AFC South, maybe the worst division in football. A great team record along with stellar individual stats are what's needed to win an MVP. Despite being a long shot, Lawrence has an opportunity to harness both this season and compete with the likes of the heavier MVP favorites.