NFL MVP Odds

There are just three games left in the 2020-21 NFL regular season, and to say the MVP race has sorted itself out would be uncalled for. This year’s MVP race is a two-horse race with Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers battling it out for the prestigious award. Should Mahomes win, it would be his second MVP in three seasons, while Rodgers would be winning the award for the third time in his career and first since 2014. 

 

Both quarterbacks have their teams primed for a deep playoff run and have gotten to this point in the season in a different fashion. Rodgers has been lights out all season long, while Mahomes, only recently (six games or so), has ascended to the top of the MVP odds boards. With three games left, Mahomes is the favorite, but I wouldn’t rule out Rodgers overtaking him if a few things break the right way. Beyond them, you’ll notice that six of the top seven favorites are quarterbacks, with Derrick Henry being the only other offensive player listed (+10000). Pittsburgh’s TJ Watt (+12500) and Los Angeles’, Aaron Donald (+15000) are the only defensive players to crack the top 12 at this late point in the season. 

 

It’s really not all that hard to believe that Mahomes has ascended to the top of the MVP race and is the odds-on favorite to capture his second MVP award in three years. Mahomes has the Chiefs in first place in the AFC and they look poised to make a deep playoff run and defend their Lombardy Trophy. Mahomes ranks first in passing yards by some 500 yards over second place (Deshaun Watson) and by 600 yards over the third-place guy (Aaron Rodgers – who we will talk about later on). Mahomes currently sits third in touchdown passes with 33 and second in QBR at 84.7. To say he’s been on fire lately would be a massive understatement. Over his last six games, Mahomes has tossed 17 touchdown passes. His team has gone 6-0 in that span, and it’s going to take a massive collapse by the Chiefs over the final three games against the Saints, Falcons and Chargers, for Mahomes to fall out of the MVP lead. However, if the guy below can put up even more gaudy numbers than he’s already done, it could be a closer final vote than we might think. 

 

I said it back in April after the draft, I said it again when I did my division previews and I’ll say it again for those of you who didn’t hear. Aaron Rodgers took the Packers’ decision to draft quarterback, Jordan Love as a sign of disrespect. I understand that the NFL is a business and it’s important to have an heir apparent at the quarterback position and that Love could learn plenty from a guy as gifted as Rodgers. However, Rodgers wanted reinforcements on the offensive side of the ball and never got it.

 

I said that to begin the year, and Rodgers’s season has played out exactly how I thought it would. Through 13 games Rodgers has thrown just four interceptions this season and has 3,685 passing yards under his belt. He ranks first in touchdown passes with 39 and leads the NFL in QBR at 84.8. He’s essentially on an “EFF YOU” tour and has obliterated every defense he’s come up against to date; the Packers are averaging 273 passing yards per game and 31.5 points per game. The Packers are also in prime position to capture their division title and possibly finish with the best record in the NFC. The only possible knock on Rodgers’ MVP train is the fact that he comes up against some good defenses over the final three games in the Panthers, Titans and Bears.  

 

As far as Josh Allen goes, it may be too little too late for the product out of Wyoming. Allen had a blistering start to the year before fading in the middle quarter of the season, only to come on strong over his last five games. During that span, Allen has posted 12 touchdown passes and added three rushing touchdowns while leading his team to a 4-1 record. Allen has the Bills in prime position to capture their first division title since 1995 when the team won the wild-card round but lost in the division game to the Steelers. When you look at the individual statistics that Allen has put up, he doesn’t exactly jump off the page at you. Allen ranks sixth in passing yards (3,641), T-6 in passing touchdowns with 28, and sixth in QBR at 75.9. He’s also tossed nine interceptions which has him T19. Nonetheless, if you take Allen off the Bills, you have a Bills squad that is well below .500 regardless of who replaces Allen (Barkley, Webb, Fromm). You could argue that with the lack of explosive weapons the Bills have in comparison to the Packers and Chiefs, Allen is the MVP of the league. Unfortunately, I think it’s too little too late for the Bills pivot, but I’m sure he’d much rather take a deep playoff run than garner individual accolades.