by Hollywood Sports
Thursday, Sep 26, 2024For the 14th straight summer, I invested time researching each NFL team to serve as the foundation for my handicapping in the fall and winter. What initially began as basic notetaking on some fundamental details for each team has become an arduous and detailed process for each team that derives from the reading and studying of multiple sources. Each NFL team now takes about two hours of preparation time as I add sources to my foundational work.
To help document this work while crystallizing my thoughts for each team, I am providing a summary of each team highlighted by a critical question that will go a long way in their success or failure. Here are my NFC teams (and I will add more of the writeups as the weeks move on).
BALTIMORE RAVENS: The philosophical change on offense under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken was (mostly) wildly successful. While the Ravens led the NFL in run/pass ratio, Monken’s aggressive and creative play-calling opened up their passing attack with quarterback Lamar Jackson setting career highs by completing 67.2% of his passes for 3678 passing yards. The Baltimore offense ranked third in Expected Points Added (EPA) per rush attempt and sixth in EPA per dropback. They were also seventh with 132 Explosive Plays. But after a dominant 13-4 regular season where they outscored their opponents by +12.1 Points-Per-Game and then blowing out Houston by a 34-10 score in the AFC Divisional playoff round, the struggles in the playoffs reared its ugly head again for Jackson. Despite hosting the AFC Championship Game and holding Patrick Mahomes scoreless in the second half, Baltimore still suffered a 17-10 loss to Kansas City. What is there to take from that disappointment? On the one hand, perhaps there would have been a different outcome if Zay Flowers did not get the football spiked out of his hands as he was approaching the goal line. Later, Jackson threw an ill-advised pass into the endzone that was picked off from the triple coverage. On the other hand, why was it that the Ravens only handed the ball off to a running back eight times in that game despite a good offensive line that helped them lead the league in rushing? Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo took away the run and dared Baltimore to win the game behind Jackson’s arm — and they couldn’t do it. Again. Jackson has a 58-19 record as a starter but is just 2-4 in the postseason. And then there were the losses in the offseason. Three starters are gone on the offensive line — and none of them were 30-year-old left tackle Ronnie Stanley who is regressing quickly from his 2019 All-Pro season after battling injuries for years. The defense returns nine starters from a group that led the league by holding their opponents to 16.5 PPG — but that unit will miss linebacker Patrick Queen who signed with their arch-rival Pittsburgh. The bigger concern on that side of the brain drain from the coaching staff with whiz-kid defensive coordinator Matt Macdonald taking the head coaching job in Seattle along with assistant coaches Anthony Walker and Dennard Wilson getting promoted to coordinator jobs at Miami and Tennessee. Former Baltimore Pro Bowler and linebacker coach Zachary Orr takes over defense — but the 32-year-old has never called plays. This defense was highly dependent on Macdonald’s schemes last year. They ranked seventh in disguised coverage schemes out of their base two-high safety shell — and despite relying on four or fewer rushers nearly 80% of the time, MacDonald’s disguised pass rush plays generated a league-leading 60 sacks. General manager signed the 30-year-old Derrick Henry to a two-year deal — but he is coming off a career-low 4.2 Yards-Per-Carry and has plenty of tread on the tires. Perhaps the second half mistakes against the Chiefs were just part of the journey this franchise needs to take under Jackson before climbing the mountain. But it sure seems like a missed opportunity, in hindsight.
BUFFALO BILLS: The conventional wisdom is that the Bills began running the ball more when Ken Dorsey was fired and replaced by Joe Brady as offensive coordinator on November 14th — but I witnessed the seeds of this transformation earlier in the second half of their game against the New York Giants on Sunday Night Football after going into halftime trailing by a 6-0 score. Buffalo patiently leaned on their running game to grind out a 14-9 victory in what I saw as a foreshadowing of what this team will become moving forward. I can only imagine the verbal lashing head coach Sean McDermott unleashed on Dorsey at halftime of that game. Dorsey was fired about a month later. Wide receivers Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis are now gone — but I am encouraged by these moves. Sure, these changes can be evaluated as “addition via subtraction.” Diggs was inefficient and a diva wanting the ball — and Allen froze him out in the second half of the season. Davis perpetually underachieved. As someone who does not think highly of the Establish the Run Mockery Crew, I applaud McDermott’s new stubbornness to lean on his ground game. The complaint about his defense is that they underachieve in the postseason — so fewer snaps during the regular season could have this unit fresher for playoff football. Relying less on quarterback Josh Allen’s arm may reduce his league-leading 47 interceptions in the last three seasons. I think a passing attack that relies on free agent wideout Curtis Samuel, rookie Keon Coleman, slot receiver Khalil Shakir, the two-headed monster at tight end with Dalton Kinkaid and Dawson Knox (and 12 personnel), and James Cook catching balls out of the backfield create some intriguing set of options for the passing attack in the post-Diggs world. I do worry about the deep ball threat. And I worry about a defense that is replacing their All-Pro safety tandem of Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde along with linebacker Leonard Floyd who had 10.5 sacks last year. But, I like the shift in direction of this team as it better synchs with McDermott’s defensive tendencies. Buffalo faces a tough schedule, but I like the philosophical changes.
CINCINNATI BENGALS: At first glance, I want to consider the Bengals on the short list of teams to overtake Kansas City to win the Super Bowl. Quarterback Joe Burrow was slowed by a calf injury suffered early in last year’s training camp that helps explain Cincinnati’s 1-3 start where they generated only 12.3 Points-Per-Game. Burrow only completed 576% of his passes for 728 yards during that stretch. But after recovering, he completed 72.5% of his passes with 13 touchdown passes and just four interceptions in his next seven games before suffering his season-ending wrist injury. I remain concerned about an inconsistent offensive line with many criticizing the lack of fundamentals taught by offensive line coach Frank Pollack. And while running back Joe Mixon was probably past his prime, do the Bengals have enough talent at that position with free agent signee Zack Moss and second-year pro Chase Brown who only had 44 carries last season? Then there is the defense that ranked 31st in the league by allowing 374.6 Yards-Per-Game. In hindsight, losing safeties Jessie Bates III and Vonn Bell took away too much leadership (and play-calling) for an inexperienced defensive backfield that was starting rookies or second-year players by the end of the season. Covering for their mistakes could explain the down seasons for linebackers Logan Wilson and Germaine Pratt. After committing only 76 missed tackles in 2022-23, the Bengals missed 124 tackles last year, the second-highest jump in the NFL. Cincinnati has spent eight of their last ten draft picks in the first three rounds on the defensive side of the ball — so perhaps a growth spurt is coming from this investment in talent. Defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo is as good as it gets. They brought back Bell in free agency while adding former Baltimore free safety Geno Stone to fortify the group with veterans. And while the Bengals faced 11 of 17 teams that ranked in the top 12 in the Football Outsiders DVOA rankings, they still got outscored by 1.1 PPG and outgained by -55.7 net YPG. Can they count on a +10 net turnover margin again? Will team cohesion take a hit with both wide receiver Tee Higgins and defensive end Trey Hendrickson wanting new deals? If the young defensive players take the next step, then Cincinnati can certainly compete for a Super Bowl — assuming Burrow fully recovers. But the seeds are certainly in place for why this team once again sputters.
DENVER BRONCOS: If head coach Sean Payton shares only one thing in common with former quarterback Russell Wilson, it’s this: they both saw a mark in Broncos CEO and owner Greg Penner. To be fair, maybe all three of these multimillionaires share the same affinity since Penner married into the WalMart family and is now the chairman of the company. All that Walmart money is now paying Wilson $85 million for the next two years to not wear the Denver colors in a decision made by Payton who is getting paid $18 million per year. What better way to get close to completing that five-year contract than by making the difficult (and convenient) decision that the entire edifice must be torn down? It would be foolish to look too much into the team’s 7-4 finish that resulted in a respectable 8-9 record last season. Four of their wins were by three points or fewer (and eight combined points) with a midseason five-game winning streak fueled by forcing 16 turnovers). The Broncos led the NFL with 15 fumble recoveries which is some turnover good fortune reminiscent of Payton’s Super Bowl run with New Orleans in 2010. That level of turnover success — nor a trip back to the Super Bowl — occurred again for Payton in the Big Easy. Denver got outscored by -3.3 Points-Per-Game and outgained by -71.net Yards-Per-Game. There is a fundamental talent problem for this team. When eating $55 million in dead cap money this season from the Wilson contract, the immediate results were that All-Pro safety Justin Simmons along with linebacker Josey Jewell and center Lloyd Cushenberry were lost in free agency. Payton and fourth-year general manager George Paton tried to fill holes with retreads in the free agency market including several of the players on the Saints who played for Payton in his final waning years. But Payton inherited a roster last season that only had four remaining players drafted in Day One of Day Two from 2018-2020 — and only wide receiver Marvin Mims, Jr. made any sort of impact from the rookie class last season. The hope is that Payton found his next Drew Brees in rookie quarterback Bo Nix, so no pressure on anybody not making $18 mill a year. Nix is praised for football lQ and the operation of a rhythm-and-timing offense with the Ducks that relied on his great accuracy. That may be another way of saying he lacks a big arm (and neither did Brees when compared to Dan Marino). But 152 of Nix’s passes last year were at or behind the line of scrimmage and another 128 pass attempts were no more than five air yards. That kinda sounds like the guy last year but whose strong-armed moon shots to Courtland Sutton could make the final raw numbers look better by the end of the game. After the humiliating 70-20 loss to Miami when they surrendered 726 yards of offense, Denver did play better on defense. Benching some aging veterans helped. But Payton game-managed the rest of the way with the offense burning time off the clock with his old Taysom Hill playbook. All those defensive takeaways made chicken salad out of you-know-what — and that was with Simmons and Jewell! Perhaps with Payton the clear alpha dog now, his impact on the culture continues to pull out close games with a roster getting closer and closer to his vision. But he needs Nix to make an immediate positive impact given the rest of the roster.
HOUSTON TEXANS: I found it hard to be optimistic about the Texans going into last year after a three-year run where they had an 11-38-1 record. But rookie head coach DeMeco Ryans had an immediate impact on this team — and C.J. Stroud enjoyed one of the best rookie seasons in the history of the NFL. Several indicators suggest that the Texans were fortunate to win seven more regular season games than they did in 2022-23. They only outgained their opponents by +11.7 net Yards-Per-Game. They had a 7-3 record in games decided by one scoring possession. They were outclassed in the AFC Divisional Playoff round in a 34-10 loss to Baltimore. But, on the other hand, general manager Nick Caserio was very aggressive in the offseason to upgrade the talent level of this roster. He traded for wide receiver Stefon Diggs and running back Joe Mixon to offer more weapons for Stroud. He signed 14 free agents and drafted another five players for a defense that ranked 14th in the NFL by allowing 330.7 total YPG. Defensive ends Danielle Hunter and Denico Autry upgrade Houston’s pass rush after they combined for 28 sacks last season. Linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair comes over from Tennessee and will be the signal caller for the defense. Caserio picked cornerback Kamari Lassiter from Georgia in the second round as his first pick in the NFL draft. The nickel cornerback in their 4-2-5 base defense remains a question but Caserio did bring in former first-round picks C.J. Henderson and Jeff Okudah as potential reclamation projects. Linebacker Christian Harris and cornerback Derek Stingley, Jr. both thrived under the new coaching staff last year — and rookie defensive end Willie Anderson, Jr. justified the haul Caserio spent to move up in the draft to select him as the third pick. There may be too much talent in the locker room with Stroud that can push away the Regression Gods.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: The easy question regarding the Colts is how good second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson can be — and can he stay healthy? I think the real question is how good the supporting cast is for him or the 39-year-old Joe Flacco beyond the quarterback position. General manager Chris Ballard’s priorities in the offseason were resigning wide receiver Michael Pittman, defensive tackles DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart, and linebacker Zaire Franklin — but those were lateral moves for a team that got outgained by -13.0 net Yards-Per-Game and benefitted from winning six of their nine games decided by one scoring possession. Indianapolis ranked 24th in the NFL by allowing 349.8 Yards-Per-Game — and they were in the bottom half of the league in both run defense and pass defense. Is the talent level better on this team? Maybe Richardson is a generational talent — but he has only started 17 games in college and professional football and his opponents had four games in the NFL to break down all the supposed “revolutionary” ways first-year head coach Shane Steichen was deploying his talents.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: My biggest question regarding this team last year was if they were closer to the team that lost by only a touchdown on the road to the eventual Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs or the one that only outgained their opponents by +4.1 net YPG while spotting the Los Angeles Chargers a 27-0 halftime lead in the wildcard round of the playoffs. I concluded: “It seems as if the ‘plan’ is to draw an inside straight where quarterback Trevor Lawrence takes another big lead in his second season working with head coach Doug Pederson, wide receiver Calvin Ridley does not miss a beat in his return to the field after playing only five games since 2021, the offensive line somehow hangs in there, and that linebackers Travon Walker, Josh Allen, and Devin Lloyd stop underachieving and begin developing into the defensive stars that the organization hoped they would as former first-round draft picks.” With the benefit of 20/20 hindsight vision, some conclusions can be drawn. Lawrence did not take a step forward: in his last seven games, he had seven touchdown passes by seven interceptions. His defenders will remind everyone of the four various injuries he tried to play through down the stretch. Yet, he led the NFL with 21 turnovers — 14 giveaways from interceptions and another seven from lost fumbles. He has 60 career turnovers in his first three years in the league. Ridley was better than I expected with 76 receptions for 1016 yards and eight touchdowns — but he was not resigned perhaps given the compensation package that would have been due Atlanta in the language of the original deal worked out by general manager Trent Baalke. More on him in a moment. In regards the underachieving linebackers, the results were mixed. Josh Allen validated himself completely with 17.5 sacks last year. Walker added 10 sacks but still seems to be underachieving his #1 pick in the 2022 draft given his size and mobility. Lloyd pass defense improved. Yet this was a team that got outgained by -3.3 net Yards-Per-Game. The first-level analytics suggest this remains just a .500 team rather than one that reached another level two years ago. Win six of their last seven in 2022-23, lose of six in to close out 2023-24 — that’s the noise of a .500 team. But I want to take a step back to consider Baalke, the former San Francisco 49ers general manager who got into an internal fight with Jim Harbaugh which led to Harbaugh getting fired and replaced by Jim Tomasula. After Tomasula’s 5-11 campaign, the Niners sacked him for Chip Kelly who promptly oversaw a 2-15 season that got both Baalke and him fired. What if Baalke’s 2011 Executive of the Year Award had more to do with the wizardry of Harbaugh as a head coach than Baalke’s general manager acumen? What if Baalke has been living off those Harbaugh vapors for years? After being hired as the Director of Player Personnel by Jacksonville — not exactly the model franchise of organization competence under owner Shahid Khan (father of Tony Khan, founder and co-owner of AEW, the professional wrestling company where as the booker he has his bloated fan-boy stable of wrestlers flip from heel to face as often as Lawrence was injured last year, which actually may explain a lot) — he was soon promoted to general manager nine months later. Perhaps seeing Baalke as the NFL’s version of former WCW honcho Eric Bischoff is the appropriate comparison to keep this wrestling analogy alive. Bischoff’s MO was to poach talent from the WWF and rework their storylines. Baalke isn’t working off scripts — but he does draft NFL talent as if wakes up at 3 PM ET just in time for the national CBS-TV game featuring the SEC. Baalke had nine draft picks last April — and seven of those players came from SEC programs (three from LSU!). The non-SEC players came from the Big 12 which may be a result of commercial breaks when he turned on a random game on ABC-TV or ESPN. I got curious, and this is not an aberration. In 2023, 12 of Baalke’s 13 draft picks came from Power Five conference teams with the exception of the offensive tackle he drafted from Appalachian State may be resulting from a Thursday Night ESPN viewing. In 2022, five of his seven picks were from Power Five Conferences. In 2021 in his inaugural season with new head coach Urban Meyer who was going to tear up the NFL like he did the SEC and Big Ten, he drafted another eight of nine players from Power Five conference schools. And, sure, I get it: the better athletes play at Power Five conference schools. But so do the other 31 teams in the NFL get that too. It’s not a secret. In an NFL where players like Maxx Crosby and Bobby Wagner came from non-Power Five conference schools, not taking more chancing on those players seems like missing opportunities for high-end returns. Of course, if Baalke’s reliance on simply banking on the 29 SEC players he has drafted in his career was producing great results, then why mess with the formula (that everyone already knows about). Instead, this remains a .500 team. My question in 2021 was whether Harbaugh or Baalke deserved more of the credit for the 49ers’ Super Bowl appearance. Three years later, Harbaugh won a National Championship at Michigan while Baalke’s Jaguars teams have gone 22-31 with one playoff appearance. Baalke drafts like he’s former Raiders’ general manager Mike Mayock, albeit with the cover-his-ass political skills.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: Last year was supposed to be a transition season for the defending champions. The Chiefs cemented their dynasty legacy by winning the Super Bowl for the second time in the last four seasons after outlasting the Philadelphia Eagles. They lost eight veterans from that team including five starters. The wide receiver room was in a full-rebuild one year removed from the decision to not sign Tyreek Hill to an expensive second contract. Two starters were lost on the offensive line. Yet Kansas City still managed to play two games on the road in the postseason — at Buffalo and at Baltimore — en route to winning their third Super Bowl in five seasons by beating San Francisco in overtime by a 25-22 score. Now Andy Reid, Steve Spagnuolo, Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and the rest of the team look to make NFL history by winning three straight Super Bowls. The Chiefs won the title last year on the strength of their defense that ranked second in the league by allowing only 17.3 Points-Per-Game and 289.9 total Yards-Per-Game. They held their four playoff opponents to just 15.8 PPG. Spags lost cornerback L’Jarius Sneed and linebacker Wille Gay in the offseason but replacements exist from the great work general manager Brett Veach has done stocking the roster with talent — especially from his spectacular draft two seasons ago. The scary aspect of this team is that they are not likely to score only 21.8 PPG this season, ranking 15th in the league. They also are not likely to be saddled by a -11 net turnover margin, ranking tied for 28th worst in the NFL. Kansas City’s rebuilt wide receiver group was responsible for a league-leading 44 dropped passes that accounted for 386 yards lost in the air (even before potential Yards after the Catch). The wide receivers also lost nine fumbles. That explains why the Chiefs scored -7.4 fewer PPG last year. Veach addressed this unit in the offseason by signing Marquise Brown from Arizona and trading up to draft Xavier Worthy from Texas in the first round. Both those additions offer Mahomes speed and the deep threat he has missed since Hill departed for Miami. After posting 48 touchdowns to just 12 interceptions in his first four seasons on passes of 20 or more air yards, Mahomes has just four touchdown passes and six interceptions on passes of 20 or more air yards in the last two seasons with Hill. This renewed downfield threat should open things up for Kelce and second-year pro Rashee Rice who developed into Mahomes’ most trusted wide receiver option in the second half of the season. And while Rice has a likely suspension looming for off-the-field issues and Brown suffered a shoulder injury in the preseason that will keep him out four-to-six weeks, both will likely be available when it is time for the Chiefs to rev things up in the postseason to make NFL history with a third straight Super Bowl title.
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS: Last year in the offseason, I was concerned about head coach Josh McDaniels’ inability to address the culture issues that plagued his time in Denver. It turns out he learned little from his mistakes. The Raiders celebrated like it was 1999 when he was fired on Halloween — and proceeded to go 5-4 under their last nine games under interim head coach Antonio Pierce. Now the Raiders will proceed with their their third head coach and third general manager since 2022 with the interim tag removed from Pierce’s title and owner Mark Davis tapping former Los Angeles Chargers general manager Tom Telesco as the new GM. At least Tedesco’s past draft history puts him at least at replacement level — a clear step up from Dave Ziegler and the NFL Network’s Mike Mayock (the latter who drafted like he woke up at noon Vegas time to watch Saturday college football to account for his deep scouting). Perhaps Davis concluded that since Circus Circus is on the north end of the strip, there was room for a second circus on the strip south of Tropicana Boulevard. The drafting and free agency mayhem under the previous two regimes leaves many positions thin. The good news is that the Las Vegas defense could be quite good. Defensive end Maxx Crosby is the coronated heart and soul of this team with his endorsement of Pierce helping him retain the gig. With the free agent signing of defensive tackle Christian Wilkins from Miami, opposing front lines face a blocking dilemma from the likely mismatches based on those choices. Since Pierce took over as head coach, the Raiders allowed only 16.0 Points-Per-Game in those final nine games — and that side of the ball is one of the few areas with continuity with defensive coordinator Patrick Graham back for his third season running the defense. The biggest question is the offense. I like Telesco’s decision to not pay running back Josh Jacobs a big second contract after he averaged only 3.5 Yards-Per-Carry. But while Samir White led the NFL in rushing yards the final four weeks of the season, the former Georgia Bulldog has never been a bell cow even going back to college. Alexander Mattison was signed from Minnesota but only after he failed in the bell cow role for the Vikings after they decided to move on from Dalvin Cook. The wide receiver room is intriguing with Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers alongside second-year tight end Michael Mayer and the latest transformational tight end prospect in Brock Bowers. I would love to see a commitment to 12 personnel with both tight ends on the field with Bowers taking on a Travis Kelce role. But is first-year offensive coordinator Luke Getsy that guy? His time in Chicago devolved quickly into a “who to blame” battle between QB Jalen Hurts and himself. His previous stop was as the quarterback coach in Green Bay in the who-to-blame/who-to-credit shit show between Aaron Rodgers, Matt LeFluer, Nathaniel Hackett, and himself. And then there is the quarterback issue. Rookie Aidan O’Connell was solid in his time on the field as a rookie last year and had eight touchdown passes without an interception in his final four stars — but the quality of competition was not top-notch. Gardner Minshew was brought in as a free agent from Indianapolis. I applaud Telesco for not overpaying for someone like Kirk Cousins, something the past regimes may have done to bide time in their showcase on the Strip. Pierce is a players’ coach who deserves credit for some subtle tactical changes on offense like more play-action and more emphasis on getting the ball to their damn play-makers over supposed schematic flare. I can see the Raiders having a very good defense. I can see the offense being very interesting in 12 personnel with Adams and Meyers offsetting those two tight ends (even with either quarterback under center). But Getsy calling the plays for this vision? I am in a holding pattern, on that front.
MIAMI DOLPHINS: The biggest priority in the offseason last year seemed to be figuring out how to keep quarterback Tua Tagovailoa healthy after he suffered what was probably three concussions during the season. He is the essential point guard that makes head coach Mike McDaniels’ offense go. McDaniels tweaked the playbook away from some of the concepts Kyle Shanahan deploys as injuries at QB appear endemic to his system. Tagovailoa bulked up and took jiu-jitsu classes to train his body how to fall. Whatever it was, it worked as Tagovailoa played an entire season for the first time since 2018. But will that lead to some complacency concerning the ever-lingering concern of a professional athlete who has had multiple concussions? Tagovailoa slimmed down in the offseason — is he planning on running more? It is fair to say the offense is limited at times since McDaniels and Tagovailoa are highly reluctant to attempt to gain yards from QB run plays. And while the media proclaimed McDaniels an offensive genius by his second game as head coach of the Dolphins, the dirty little secret is that his play-calling tends to get predictable in short-yardage, on third downs, and in the red zone. I wonder if the urgency to keep his quarterback safe limits his flexibility in these moments. Miami loves to emphasize their speed — but perhaps their league-leading 401.3 Yards-Per-Game last season is more a reflection of them being Flat Track Bullies than the genius of McDaniels? The Dolphins won 10 of their 11 games against sub-.500 teams last year — but they lost six of their seven games against teams with a winning record including a 28-point loss to Buffalo, a 37-point loss to Baltimore, and then their 26-7 loss at Kansas City in the playoffs. The problems Miami has in cold weather are well-documented with those conditions neutralizing their speed advantage. But good teams tend to have speed too — so maybe this offense simply hits a wall when facing similar talent? And good teams tend to expose the Dolphins' defense which was supposed to significantly improve under defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. While Miami gave up -0.5 fewer Points-Per-Game and -19.5 YPG, their defense ranked just 19th in Defensive DVOA — and there was speculation that Fangio clashed with players inside the building. I wonder if Fangio’s frustration was a by-product of the culture McDaniel has fostered. Fangio is now gone — and McDaniels’ third defensive coordinator in three seasons is Baltimore defensive line coach Anthony Weaver. Gone is star defensive tackle Christian Wilkins who signed for a big payday in Las Vegas. Cornerback Xavien Howard was a salary cap casualty. The unit was not helped late in the season when both Jean Phillips and Bradley Chubb suffered season-ending injuries. The hope is that both linebackers are ready by the start of the season — but this unit will take a big hit if they cannot return to form. General manager Chris Grier signed at least nine free agents likely to make the team to bolster the unit led by Buffalo safety Jordan Poyer — and he drafted another three rookies featuring Penn State linebacker Chop Robinson in the first round. But it is not hard to imagine things unraveling on that side of the football.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: After 24 years, the Patriots move on to Year One of the post-Bill Belichick era after they bottomed out with a 4-13 record last season. The offense stagnated without Tom Brady under center — they tied for last in the league by scoring only 13.9 Points-Per-Game. Why did this happen? (1) Poor coaching? (2) Mac Jones was not the answer at quarterback? (3) Lack of talent at wide receiver? I tend to think the blame on the coaching staff — even when Matt Patricia and Joe Judge were moonlighting as offensive coaches two years ago — was overblown. In hindsight, Jones looks like a head case. Certainly, it is fair to say that Belichick did not put him in a position to succeed with skill position talent — especially at wide receiver. Jones’ lack of mobility compounded that problem. Jones is gone — and rookie Drake May is the future at quarterback. Former Cleveland offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt is the new offensive coordinator — and with the hiring of special assistant Ben McAdoo, the offense looks to be adopting the West Coast principles of the Green Bay offense before Matt LaFleur arrived. McAdoo was the previous Packers' offensive coordinator with Van Pelt the Quarterbacks Coach. Van Pelt is likely to deploy a run-first approach that will set up play-action passes and, hopefully, more explosive plays. The team did sign Jacoby Brissett as a veteran placeholder at QB who enjoyed his best professional season in 2022 under Van Pelt’s guidance. New general manager Eliot Wolf drafted Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker in the second and fourth rounds, but it remains a question of whether either is a future WR1. The offensive line should be solid, albeit with questions at left tackle. However, there is continuity and cohesion on the other side of the ball with a defense that returns 14 of the top 18 players from a group that finished in the top ten in total defense for the fourth time in the last five seasons after holding their opponents to just 301.6 Yards-Per-Game, ranking seventh in the NFL. The Patriots accomplished that despite edge rusher Matthew Judon and cornerbacks Christian Gonzalez and Marcus Jones missing most of the season. Linebackers coach (and former star player for Belichick) Jared Mayo takes over as head coach in this new era — and his player-friendly approach should provide an immediate breath of fresh air in the locker room. But even Belichick’s harshest critics would be foolish to suggest he was not still a defensive guru. Will the defense take a step back now without Belichick’s touch that ensured the tackling fundamentals were always sound (seven straight seasons top five in fewest broken tackles) and took away their opponents' top weapon (New England was third in Defensive DVOA against WR1s last year)? Wolf did not add any significant pieces on that side of the ball. The hope is that getting healthy again can keep the momentum going on defense. Better play at quarterback with at least some upgrade at the skill positions along with another tough defense could have the Patriots fighting for a playoff spot (remember, they made the playoffs three years ago and were still mathematically alive going into Week 17 two seasons ago). On the other hand, if the defense takes a step back without Belichick and the offensive problems continue, it could be a very long season in Foxboro.
NEW YORK JETS: In last year’s offseason in the first year with Aaron Rodgers under center, I questioned how the locker room would deal with all the distractions that have become part of the package of having the former MVP at quarterback. General manager Joe Douglass and head coach Robert Saleh were on the hot seat and seemingly going all-in on the Rodgers gamble. I also wondered if the Rodgers reconnection with Nathaniel Hackett, his offensive coordinator during some of his best seasons in Green Bay, would be fruitful or was Hackett simply his “yes man” who got exposed as a coach out of his element in his one season as the Denver head coach. A year later, we lack answers to those questions since Rodgers lasted only four snaps before he suffered his season-ending Achilles injury. Douglass, Saleh, and even Hackett were given mulligans after that injury on Monday Night Football. But now the seats are even hotter with everything banking on Rodgers successfully recovering from a serious leg injury at 41 years old. And the distractions keep marching on. Rodgers kept teasing that his recovery was ahead of schedule and that he could make a near-miraculous return late in the season. While less than a fourth-month recovery from a torn Achilles is rare, Rodgers claimed his innovative training and healing techniques (including listening to dolphin sounds) would have him ready. But inevitably in a scene reminiscent of NBA players begging to “hold me back” from on-the-court fights that no one ever planned to initiate, Rodgers’ services were never required in late December with the Jets limping to another 7-10 record. Since then, some of Rodgers’ antics include a few days where he was being considered to be the Vice Presidential candidate for Robert F. Kennedy’s vanity presidential bid before later blowing off mandatory training camp sessions for his “previously scheduled” trip to Egypt. It is hard not to consider Rodgers simply a carnival barker at this point of his career when he keeps on sounding like a carnival barker. He plans to be just the 16th quarterback in NFL history to play after turning 40. Father Time is undefeated — and when he comes knocking, the end comes quickly as Drew Brees and Brett Favre demonstrated in the final year of their careers. Both of those players were 41 years old when they experienced their sudden decline — but neither was coming off a major injury either when still playing at a high level at 40 years old. Maybe Rodgers’ statistical decline two years ago with the Packers was mostly a result of the departure of wide receiver Davante Adams. Maybe he replicates what Warren Moon once did and return from a major injury at 40 years old and plays at a high level. New York’s offensive line could be much better after left tackle Tyron Smith, left guard John Simpson, and right tackle Morgan Moses were signed as free agents, and then Penn State left tackle Olu Fashanu was drafted in the first round. The Jets have intriguing talent at the skill positions. The defense should remain elite with defensive tackle Quinnen Williams, linebacker Quincy Williams, and cornerback Sauce Gardner giving them All-Pros at all three levels. Peyton Manning was able to win a Super Bowl in Denver behind an outstanding defense despite being past his prime. This team does not need another MVP season from Rodgers to make a deep run. But the pressure cooker is tight for teams that are in Super Bowl or bust mode — especially ones that have not even made the playoffs since 2010. If Rodgers can’t walk the walk (even after dolphin sound therapy) — or gets injured again — things could implode very quickly.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS: The Steelers made the playoffs for the 11th time in head coach Mike Tomlin’s 17 years as their head coach — and the team has never had a losing season under his leadership. But Pittsburgh was still not a very good team before they lost at Buffalo by a 31-17 score in the AFC Wildcard round of the playoffs. They were outscored by 1.2 Points-Per-Game and outgained -38.8 net Yards-Per-Game in the regular season. While they had a 10-7 regular season record, their Pythagorean win total was just 7.9. They won nine of their 11 games decided by one scoring possession — and while Tomlin’s effective game management deserves some of the credit, they had several fluky victories. They scored two defensive touchdowns in their opening-week win against Cleveland before beating Baltimore later in the season from a blocked punt safety. They were outgained in 12 of their 17 regular season games but somehow still won six of those games. A silver lining is that after getting outgained in all ten of their games under the immensely underqualified offensive coordinator Matt Canada, Pittsburgh won the yardage battle in five of their last seven regular season games after he was fired. The offense has since been completely retooled with all three quarterbacks now gone. General manager Omar Khan brought in Russell Wilson and Justin Fields as inexpensive reclamation projects. Many observers will be bullish on Wilson finding new life with the Steelers — these are the folks who tend to think that “Russ Can’t Fail — he can only be failed!” The “Let Russ Cook” brigade can point to his 26:8 touchdown-to-interception ratio to advance that he was pretty, pretty good after all last season. Maybe … but that analysis gets refuted by Sean Payton’s decision to not only give up on Wilson after one year by also eat $85 million in dead cap money. Payton eventually deployed the Taysom Hill gameplans with Wilson in the second half of the season with the offense usually not throwing the ball even 30 times a game. Wilson seems to have paid close attention to Aaron Rodgers' seminar on Stat padding. Yes, Wilson completed 66.4% of his passes and threw just eight interceptions — but he held on to the ball too long with the third-highest seconds per pass attempt rate and taking 45 sacks. Wilson’s depth of targets continues to decline as well — his 6.9 Yards-Per-Attempt rate last year was the lowest of his career. And then there is Fields who led the NFL in seconds per pass attempt. Former Atlanta head coach Arthur Smith has his hands full as the new offensive coordinator. His schemes with the Falcons and previously as the OC for Tennessee are run-first with plenty of motion and play-action. Smith likes to use the middle of the field in the passing game, especially with his tight ends. But will this be a good fit with the risk-averse Wilson in the twilight of his career (and working for the veteran minimum this year? Only 13% of his passes last season were in the middle of the field. By the way, how much cognitive dissonance is required for Wilson dead-enders to be optimistic about his upcoming season in a run-heavy approach like the one in Seattle that initially spawned the “Let Russ Cook” fanaticism? Finally, there are the underlying cultural issues with this franchise. The players still love Tomlin — but in finishing 28th in the NFLPA’s postseason report card, the organization received Ds in Nutrition and in Travel while getting Fs in Ownership and the Locker room and an F- in Treatment of Families. The Seahawks Legion of Boom found Wilson to be phony before Payton concluded paying him $85 mill to play elsewhere was the preferred solution. How is he going to fit into this environment while issuing NDAs to teammates before they can socialize with him? And what if he loses the starting QB job to Fields? Then what? Maybe the Tomlin magic and a good defense will be enough for this team to overachieve once again now that a professional offensive coach is calling plays. On the other hand, the brewing situations underneath Tomlin’s management might finally boil over.
Best of luck -- Frank.
To help document this work while crystallizing my thoughts for each team, I am providing a summary of each team highlighted by a critical question that will go a long way in their success or failure. Here are my NFC teams (and I will add more of the writeups as the weeks move on).
BALTIMORE RAVENS: The philosophical change on offense under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken was (mostly) wildly successful. While the Ravens led the NFL in run/pass ratio, Monken’s aggressive and creative play-calling opened up their passing attack with quarterback Lamar Jackson setting career highs by completing 67.2% of his passes for 3678 passing yards. The Baltimore offense ranked third in Expected Points Added (EPA) per rush attempt and sixth in EPA per dropback. They were also seventh with 132 Explosive Plays. But after a dominant 13-4 regular season where they outscored their opponents by +12.1 Points-Per-Game and then blowing out Houston by a 34-10 score in the AFC Divisional playoff round, the struggles in the playoffs reared its ugly head again for Jackson. Despite hosting the AFC Championship Game and holding Patrick Mahomes scoreless in the second half, Baltimore still suffered a 17-10 loss to Kansas City. What is there to take from that disappointment? On the one hand, perhaps there would have been a different outcome if Zay Flowers did not get the football spiked out of his hands as he was approaching the goal line. Later, Jackson threw an ill-advised pass into the endzone that was picked off from the triple coverage. On the other hand, why was it that the Ravens only handed the ball off to a running back eight times in that game despite a good offensive line that helped them lead the league in rushing? Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo took away the run and dared Baltimore to win the game behind Jackson’s arm — and they couldn’t do it. Again. Jackson has a 58-19 record as a starter but is just 2-4 in the postseason. And then there were the losses in the offseason. Three starters are gone on the offensive line — and none of them were 30-year-old left tackle Ronnie Stanley who is regressing quickly from his 2019 All-Pro season after battling injuries for years. The defense returns nine starters from a group that led the league by holding their opponents to 16.5 PPG — but that unit will miss linebacker Patrick Queen who signed with their arch-rival Pittsburgh. The bigger concern on that side of the brain drain from the coaching staff with whiz-kid defensive coordinator Matt Macdonald taking the head coaching job in Seattle along with assistant coaches Anthony Walker and Dennard Wilson getting promoted to coordinator jobs at Miami and Tennessee. Former Baltimore Pro Bowler and linebacker coach Zachary Orr takes over defense — but the 32-year-old has never called plays. This defense was highly dependent on Macdonald’s schemes last year. They ranked seventh in disguised coverage schemes out of their base two-high safety shell — and despite relying on four or fewer rushers nearly 80% of the time, MacDonald’s disguised pass rush plays generated a league-leading 60 sacks. General manager signed the 30-year-old Derrick Henry to a two-year deal — but he is coming off a career-low 4.2 Yards-Per-Carry and has plenty of tread on the tires. Perhaps the second half mistakes against the Chiefs were just part of the journey this franchise needs to take under Jackson before climbing the mountain. But it sure seems like a missed opportunity, in hindsight.
BUFFALO BILLS: The conventional wisdom is that the Bills began running the ball more when Ken Dorsey was fired and replaced by Joe Brady as offensive coordinator on November 14th — but I witnessed the seeds of this transformation earlier in the second half of their game against the New York Giants on Sunday Night Football after going into halftime trailing by a 6-0 score. Buffalo patiently leaned on their running game to grind out a 14-9 victory in what I saw as a foreshadowing of what this team will become moving forward. I can only imagine the verbal lashing head coach Sean McDermott unleashed on Dorsey at halftime of that game. Dorsey was fired about a month later. Wide receivers Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis are now gone — but I am encouraged by these moves. Sure, these changes can be evaluated as “addition via subtraction.” Diggs was inefficient and a diva wanting the ball — and Allen froze him out in the second half of the season. Davis perpetually underachieved. As someone who does not think highly of the Establish the Run Mockery Crew, I applaud McDermott’s new stubbornness to lean on his ground game. The complaint about his defense is that they underachieve in the postseason — so fewer snaps during the regular season could have this unit fresher for playoff football. Relying less on quarterback Josh Allen’s arm may reduce his league-leading 47 interceptions in the last three seasons. I think a passing attack that relies on free agent wideout Curtis Samuel, rookie Keon Coleman, slot receiver Khalil Shakir, the two-headed monster at tight end with Dalton Kinkaid and Dawson Knox (and 12 personnel), and James Cook catching balls out of the backfield create some intriguing set of options for the passing attack in the post-Diggs world. I do worry about the deep ball threat. And I worry about a defense that is replacing their All-Pro safety tandem of Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde along with linebacker Leonard Floyd who had 10.5 sacks last year. But, I like the shift in direction of this team as it better synchs with McDermott’s defensive tendencies. Buffalo faces a tough schedule, but I like the philosophical changes.
CINCINNATI BENGALS: At first glance, I want to consider the Bengals on the short list of teams to overtake Kansas City to win the Super Bowl. Quarterback Joe Burrow was slowed by a calf injury suffered early in last year’s training camp that helps explain Cincinnati’s 1-3 start where they generated only 12.3 Points-Per-Game. Burrow only completed 576% of his passes for 728 yards during that stretch. But after recovering, he completed 72.5% of his passes with 13 touchdown passes and just four interceptions in his next seven games before suffering his season-ending wrist injury. I remain concerned about an inconsistent offensive line with many criticizing the lack of fundamentals taught by offensive line coach Frank Pollack. And while running back Joe Mixon was probably past his prime, do the Bengals have enough talent at that position with free agent signee Zack Moss and second-year pro Chase Brown who only had 44 carries last season? Then there is the defense that ranked 31st in the league by allowing 374.6 Yards-Per-Game. In hindsight, losing safeties Jessie Bates III and Vonn Bell took away too much leadership (and play-calling) for an inexperienced defensive backfield that was starting rookies or second-year players by the end of the season. Covering for their mistakes could explain the down seasons for linebackers Logan Wilson and Germaine Pratt. After committing only 76 missed tackles in 2022-23, the Bengals missed 124 tackles last year, the second-highest jump in the NFL. Cincinnati has spent eight of their last ten draft picks in the first three rounds on the defensive side of the ball — so perhaps a growth spurt is coming from this investment in talent. Defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo is as good as it gets. They brought back Bell in free agency while adding former Baltimore free safety Geno Stone to fortify the group with veterans. And while the Bengals faced 11 of 17 teams that ranked in the top 12 in the Football Outsiders DVOA rankings, they still got outscored by 1.1 PPG and outgained by -55.7 net YPG. Can they count on a +10 net turnover margin again? Will team cohesion take a hit with both wide receiver Tee Higgins and defensive end Trey Hendrickson wanting new deals? If the young defensive players take the next step, then Cincinnati can certainly compete for a Super Bowl — assuming Burrow fully recovers. But the seeds are certainly in place for why this team once again sputters.
DENVER BRONCOS: If head coach Sean Payton shares only one thing in common with former quarterback Russell Wilson, it’s this: they both saw a mark in Broncos CEO and owner Greg Penner. To be fair, maybe all three of these multimillionaires share the same affinity since Penner married into the WalMart family and is now the chairman of the company. All that Walmart money is now paying Wilson $85 million for the next two years to not wear the Denver colors in a decision made by Payton who is getting paid $18 million per year. What better way to get close to completing that five-year contract than by making the difficult (and convenient) decision that the entire edifice must be torn down? It would be foolish to look too much into the team’s 7-4 finish that resulted in a respectable 8-9 record last season. Four of their wins were by three points or fewer (and eight combined points) with a midseason five-game winning streak fueled by forcing 16 turnovers). The Broncos led the NFL with 15 fumble recoveries which is some turnover good fortune reminiscent of Payton’s Super Bowl run with New Orleans in 2010. That level of turnover success — nor a trip back to the Super Bowl — occurred again for Payton in the Big Easy. Denver got outscored by -3.3 Points-Per-Game and outgained by -71.net Yards-Per-Game. There is a fundamental talent problem for this team. When eating $55 million in dead cap money this season from the Wilson contract, the immediate results were that All-Pro safety Justin Simmons along with linebacker Josey Jewell and center Lloyd Cushenberry were lost in free agency. Payton and fourth-year general manager George Paton tried to fill holes with retreads in the free agency market including several of the players on the Saints who played for Payton in his final waning years. But Payton inherited a roster last season that only had four remaining players drafted in Day One of Day Two from 2018-2020 — and only wide receiver Marvin Mims, Jr. made any sort of impact from the rookie class last season. The hope is that Payton found his next Drew Brees in rookie quarterback Bo Nix, so no pressure on anybody not making $18 mill a year. Nix is praised for football lQ and the operation of a rhythm-and-timing offense with the Ducks that relied on his great accuracy. That may be another way of saying he lacks a big arm (and neither did Brees when compared to Dan Marino). But 152 of Nix’s passes last year were at or behind the line of scrimmage and another 128 pass attempts were no more than five air yards. That kinda sounds like the guy last year but whose strong-armed moon shots to Courtland Sutton could make the final raw numbers look better by the end of the game. After the humiliating 70-20 loss to Miami when they surrendered 726 yards of offense, Denver did play better on defense. Benching some aging veterans helped. But Payton game-managed the rest of the way with the offense burning time off the clock with his old Taysom Hill playbook. All those defensive takeaways made chicken salad out of you-know-what — and that was with Simmons and Jewell! Perhaps with Payton the clear alpha dog now, his impact on the culture continues to pull out close games with a roster getting closer and closer to his vision. But he needs Nix to make an immediate positive impact given the rest of the roster.
HOUSTON TEXANS: I found it hard to be optimistic about the Texans going into last year after a three-year run where they had an 11-38-1 record. But rookie head coach DeMeco Ryans had an immediate impact on this team — and C.J. Stroud enjoyed one of the best rookie seasons in the history of the NFL. Several indicators suggest that the Texans were fortunate to win seven more regular season games than they did in 2022-23. They only outgained their opponents by +11.7 net Yards-Per-Game. They had a 7-3 record in games decided by one scoring possession. They were outclassed in the AFC Divisional Playoff round in a 34-10 loss to Baltimore. But, on the other hand, general manager Nick Caserio was very aggressive in the offseason to upgrade the talent level of this roster. He traded for wide receiver Stefon Diggs and running back Joe Mixon to offer more weapons for Stroud. He signed 14 free agents and drafted another five players for a defense that ranked 14th in the NFL by allowing 330.7 total YPG. Defensive ends Danielle Hunter and Denico Autry upgrade Houston’s pass rush after they combined for 28 sacks last season. Linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair comes over from Tennessee and will be the signal caller for the defense. Caserio picked cornerback Kamari Lassiter from Georgia in the second round as his first pick in the NFL draft. The nickel cornerback in their 4-2-5 base defense remains a question but Caserio did bring in former first-round picks C.J. Henderson and Jeff Okudah as potential reclamation projects. Linebacker Christian Harris and cornerback Derek Stingley, Jr. both thrived under the new coaching staff last year — and rookie defensive end Willie Anderson, Jr. justified the haul Caserio spent to move up in the draft to select him as the third pick. There may be too much talent in the locker room with Stroud that can push away the Regression Gods.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: The easy question regarding the Colts is how good second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson can be — and can he stay healthy? I think the real question is how good the supporting cast is for him or the 39-year-old Joe Flacco beyond the quarterback position. General manager Chris Ballard’s priorities in the offseason were resigning wide receiver Michael Pittman, defensive tackles DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart, and linebacker Zaire Franklin — but those were lateral moves for a team that got outgained by -13.0 net Yards-Per-Game and benefitted from winning six of their nine games decided by one scoring possession. Indianapolis ranked 24th in the NFL by allowing 349.8 Yards-Per-Game — and they were in the bottom half of the league in both run defense and pass defense. Is the talent level better on this team? Maybe Richardson is a generational talent — but he has only started 17 games in college and professional football and his opponents had four games in the NFL to break down all the supposed “revolutionary” ways first-year head coach Shane Steichen was deploying his talents.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: My biggest question regarding this team last year was if they were closer to the team that lost by only a touchdown on the road to the eventual Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs or the one that only outgained their opponents by +4.1 net YPG while spotting the Los Angeles Chargers a 27-0 halftime lead in the wildcard round of the playoffs. I concluded: “It seems as if the ‘plan’ is to draw an inside straight where quarterback Trevor Lawrence takes another big lead in his second season working with head coach Doug Pederson, wide receiver Calvin Ridley does not miss a beat in his return to the field after playing only five games since 2021, the offensive line somehow hangs in there, and that linebackers Travon Walker, Josh Allen, and Devin Lloyd stop underachieving and begin developing into the defensive stars that the organization hoped they would as former first-round draft picks.” With the benefit of 20/20 hindsight vision, some conclusions can be drawn. Lawrence did not take a step forward: in his last seven games, he had seven touchdown passes by seven interceptions. His defenders will remind everyone of the four various injuries he tried to play through down the stretch. Yet, he led the NFL with 21 turnovers — 14 giveaways from interceptions and another seven from lost fumbles. He has 60 career turnovers in his first three years in the league. Ridley was better than I expected with 76 receptions for 1016 yards and eight touchdowns — but he was not resigned perhaps given the compensation package that would have been due Atlanta in the language of the original deal worked out by general manager Trent Baalke. More on him in a moment. In regards the underachieving linebackers, the results were mixed. Josh Allen validated himself completely with 17.5 sacks last year. Walker added 10 sacks but still seems to be underachieving his #1 pick in the 2022 draft given his size and mobility. Lloyd pass defense improved. Yet this was a team that got outgained by -3.3 net Yards-Per-Game. The first-level analytics suggest this remains just a .500 team rather than one that reached another level two years ago. Win six of their last seven in 2022-23, lose of six in to close out 2023-24 — that’s the noise of a .500 team. But I want to take a step back to consider Baalke, the former San Francisco 49ers general manager who got into an internal fight with Jim Harbaugh which led to Harbaugh getting fired and replaced by Jim Tomasula. After Tomasula’s 5-11 campaign, the Niners sacked him for Chip Kelly who promptly oversaw a 2-15 season that got both Baalke and him fired. What if Baalke’s 2011 Executive of the Year Award had more to do with the wizardry of Harbaugh as a head coach than Baalke’s general manager acumen? What if Baalke has been living off those Harbaugh vapors for years? After being hired as the Director of Player Personnel by Jacksonville — not exactly the model franchise of organization competence under owner Shahid Khan (father of Tony Khan, founder and co-owner of AEW, the professional wrestling company where as the booker he has his bloated fan-boy stable of wrestlers flip from heel to face as often as Lawrence was injured last year, which actually may explain a lot) — he was soon promoted to general manager nine months later. Perhaps seeing Baalke as the NFL’s version of former WCW honcho Eric Bischoff is the appropriate comparison to keep this wrestling analogy alive. Bischoff’s MO was to poach talent from the WWF and rework their storylines. Baalke isn’t working off scripts — but he does draft NFL talent as if wakes up at 3 PM ET just in time for the national CBS-TV game featuring the SEC. Baalke had nine draft picks last April — and seven of those players came from SEC programs (three from LSU!). The non-SEC players came from the Big 12 which may be a result of commercial breaks when he turned on a random game on ABC-TV or ESPN. I got curious, and this is not an aberration. In 2023, 12 of Baalke’s 13 draft picks came from Power Five conference teams with the exception of the offensive tackle he drafted from Appalachian State may be resulting from a Thursday Night ESPN viewing. In 2022, five of his seven picks were from Power Five Conferences. In 2021 in his inaugural season with new head coach Urban Meyer who was going to tear up the NFL like he did the SEC and Big Ten, he drafted another eight of nine players from Power Five conference schools. And, sure, I get it: the better athletes play at Power Five conference schools. But so do the other 31 teams in the NFL get that too. It’s not a secret. In an NFL where players like Maxx Crosby and Bobby Wagner came from non-Power Five conference schools, not taking more chancing on those players seems like missing opportunities for high-end returns. Of course, if Baalke’s reliance on simply banking on the 29 SEC players he has drafted in his career was producing great results, then why mess with the formula (that everyone already knows about). Instead, this remains a .500 team. My question in 2021 was whether Harbaugh or Baalke deserved more of the credit for the 49ers’ Super Bowl appearance. Three years later, Harbaugh won a National Championship at Michigan while Baalke’s Jaguars teams have gone 22-31 with one playoff appearance. Baalke drafts like he’s former Raiders’ general manager Mike Mayock, albeit with the cover-his-ass political skills.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: Last year was supposed to be a transition season for the defending champions. The Chiefs cemented their dynasty legacy by winning the Super Bowl for the second time in the last four seasons after outlasting the Philadelphia Eagles. They lost eight veterans from that team including five starters. The wide receiver room was in a full-rebuild one year removed from the decision to not sign Tyreek Hill to an expensive second contract. Two starters were lost on the offensive line. Yet Kansas City still managed to play two games on the road in the postseason — at Buffalo and at Baltimore — en route to winning their third Super Bowl in five seasons by beating San Francisco in overtime by a 25-22 score. Now Andy Reid, Steve Spagnuolo, Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and the rest of the team look to make NFL history by winning three straight Super Bowls. The Chiefs won the title last year on the strength of their defense that ranked second in the league by allowing only 17.3 Points-Per-Game and 289.9 total Yards-Per-Game. They held their four playoff opponents to just 15.8 PPG. Spags lost cornerback L’Jarius Sneed and linebacker Wille Gay in the offseason but replacements exist from the great work general manager Brett Veach has done stocking the roster with talent — especially from his spectacular draft two seasons ago. The scary aspect of this team is that they are not likely to score only 21.8 PPG this season, ranking 15th in the league. They also are not likely to be saddled by a -11 net turnover margin, ranking tied for 28th worst in the NFL. Kansas City’s rebuilt wide receiver group was responsible for a league-leading 44 dropped passes that accounted for 386 yards lost in the air (even before potential Yards after the Catch). The wide receivers also lost nine fumbles. That explains why the Chiefs scored -7.4 fewer PPG last year. Veach addressed this unit in the offseason by signing Marquise Brown from Arizona and trading up to draft Xavier Worthy from Texas in the first round. Both those additions offer Mahomes speed and the deep threat he has missed since Hill departed for Miami. After posting 48 touchdowns to just 12 interceptions in his first four seasons on passes of 20 or more air yards, Mahomes has just four touchdown passes and six interceptions on passes of 20 or more air yards in the last two seasons with Hill. This renewed downfield threat should open things up for Kelce and second-year pro Rashee Rice who developed into Mahomes’ most trusted wide receiver option in the second half of the season. And while Rice has a likely suspension looming for off-the-field issues and Brown suffered a shoulder injury in the preseason that will keep him out four-to-six weeks, both will likely be available when it is time for the Chiefs to rev things up in the postseason to make NFL history with a third straight Super Bowl title.
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS: Last year in the offseason, I was concerned about head coach Josh McDaniels’ inability to address the culture issues that plagued his time in Denver. It turns out he learned little from his mistakes. The Raiders celebrated like it was 1999 when he was fired on Halloween — and proceeded to go 5-4 under their last nine games under interim head coach Antonio Pierce. Now the Raiders will proceed with their their third head coach and third general manager since 2022 with the interim tag removed from Pierce’s title and owner Mark Davis tapping former Los Angeles Chargers general manager Tom Telesco as the new GM. At least Tedesco’s past draft history puts him at least at replacement level — a clear step up from Dave Ziegler and the NFL Network’s Mike Mayock (the latter who drafted like he woke up at noon Vegas time to watch Saturday college football to account for his deep scouting). Perhaps Davis concluded that since Circus Circus is on the north end of the strip, there was room for a second circus on the strip south of Tropicana Boulevard. The drafting and free agency mayhem under the previous two regimes leaves many positions thin. The good news is that the Las Vegas defense could be quite good. Defensive end Maxx Crosby is the coronated heart and soul of this team with his endorsement of Pierce helping him retain the gig. With the free agent signing of defensive tackle Christian Wilkins from Miami, opposing front lines face a blocking dilemma from the likely mismatches based on those choices. Since Pierce took over as head coach, the Raiders allowed only 16.0 Points-Per-Game in those final nine games — and that side of the ball is one of the few areas with continuity with defensive coordinator Patrick Graham back for his third season running the defense. The biggest question is the offense. I like Telesco’s decision to not pay running back Josh Jacobs a big second contract after he averaged only 3.5 Yards-Per-Carry. But while Samir White led the NFL in rushing yards the final four weeks of the season, the former Georgia Bulldog has never been a bell cow even going back to college. Alexander Mattison was signed from Minnesota but only after he failed in the bell cow role for the Vikings after they decided to move on from Dalvin Cook. The wide receiver room is intriguing with Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers alongside second-year tight end Michael Mayer and the latest transformational tight end prospect in Brock Bowers. I would love to see a commitment to 12 personnel with both tight ends on the field with Bowers taking on a Travis Kelce role. But is first-year offensive coordinator Luke Getsy that guy? His time in Chicago devolved quickly into a “who to blame” battle between QB Jalen Hurts and himself. His previous stop was as the quarterback coach in Green Bay in the who-to-blame/who-to-credit shit show between Aaron Rodgers, Matt LeFluer, Nathaniel Hackett, and himself. And then there is the quarterback issue. Rookie Aidan O’Connell was solid in his time on the field as a rookie last year and had eight touchdown passes without an interception in his final four stars — but the quality of competition was not top-notch. Gardner Minshew was brought in as a free agent from Indianapolis. I applaud Telesco for not overpaying for someone like Kirk Cousins, something the past regimes may have done to bide time in their showcase on the Strip. Pierce is a players’ coach who deserves credit for some subtle tactical changes on offense like more play-action and more emphasis on getting the ball to their damn play-makers over supposed schematic flare. I can see the Raiders having a very good defense. I can see the offense being very interesting in 12 personnel with Adams and Meyers offsetting those two tight ends (even with either quarterback under center). But Getsy calling the plays for this vision? I am in a holding pattern, on that front.
MIAMI DOLPHINS: The biggest priority in the offseason last year seemed to be figuring out how to keep quarterback Tua Tagovailoa healthy after he suffered what was probably three concussions during the season. He is the essential point guard that makes head coach Mike McDaniels’ offense go. McDaniels tweaked the playbook away from some of the concepts Kyle Shanahan deploys as injuries at QB appear endemic to his system. Tagovailoa bulked up and took jiu-jitsu classes to train his body how to fall. Whatever it was, it worked as Tagovailoa played an entire season for the first time since 2018. But will that lead to some complacency concerning the ever-lingering concern of a professional athlete who has had multiple concussions? Tagovailoa slimmed down in the offseason — is he planning on running more? It is fair to say the offense is limited at times since McDaniels and Tagovailoa are highly reluctant to attempt to gain yards from QB run plays. And while the media proclaimed McDaniels an offensive genius by his second game as head coach of the Dolphins, the dirty little secret is that his play-calling tends to get predictable in short-yardage, on third downs, and in the red zone. I wonder if the urgency to keep his quarterback safe limits his flexibility in these moments. Miami loves to emphasize their speed — but perhaps their league-leading 401.3 Yards-Per-Game last season is more a reflection of them being Flat Track Bullies than the genius of McDaniels? The Dolphins won 10 of their 11 games against sub-.500 teams last year — but they lost six of their seven games against teams with a winning record including a 28-point loss to Buffalo, a 37-point loss to Baltimore, and then their 26-7 loss at Kansas City in the playoffs. The problems Miami has in cold weather are well-documented with those conditions neutralizing their speed advantage. But good teams tend to have speed too — so maybe this offense simply hits a wall when facing similar talent? And good teams tend to expose the Dolphins' defense which was supposed to significantly improve under defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. While Miami gave up -0.5 fewer Points-Per-Game and -19.5 YPG, their defense ranked just 19th in Defensive DVOA — and there was speculation that Fangio clashed with players inside the building. I wonder if Fangio’s frustration was a by-product of the culture McDaniel has fostered. Fangio is now gone — and McDaniels’ third defensive coordinator in three seasons is Baltimore defensive line coach Anthony Weaver. Gone is star defensive tackle Christian Wilkins who signed for a big payday in Las Vegas. Cornerback Xavien Howard was a salary cap casualty. The unit was not helped late in the season when both Jean Phillips and Bradley Chubb suffered season-ending injuries. The hope is that both linebackers are ready by the start of the season — but this unit will take a big hit if they cannot return to form. General manager Chris Grier signed at least nine free agents likely to make the team to bolster the unit led by Buffalo safety Jordan Poyer — and he drafted another three rookies featuring Penn State linebacker Chop Robinson in the first round. But it is not hard to imagine things unraveling on that side of the football.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: After 24 years, the Patriots move on to Year One of the post-Bill Belichick era after they bottomed out with a 4-13 record last season. The offense stagnated without Tom Brady under center — they tied for last in the league by scoring only 13.9 Points-Per-Game. Why did this happen? (1) Poor coaching? (2) Mac Jones was not the answer at quarterback? (3) Lack of talent at wide receiver? I tend to think the blame on the coaching staff — even when Matt Patricia and Joe Judge were moonlighting as offensive coaches two years ago — was overblown. In hindsight, Jones looks like a head case. Certainly, it is fair to say that Belichick did not put him in a position to succeed with skill position talent — especially at wide receiver. Jones’ lack of mobility compounded that problem. Jones is gone — and rookie Drake May is the future at quarterback. Former Cleveland offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt is the new offensive coordinator — and with the hiring of special assistant Ben McAdoo, the offense looks to be adopting the West Coast principles of the Green Bay offense before Matt LaFleur arrived. McAdoo was the previous Packers' offensive coordinator with Van Pelt the Quarterbacks Coach. Van Pelt is likely to deploy a run-first approach that will set up play-action passes and, hopefully, more explosive plays. The team did sign Jacoby Brissett as a veteran placeholder at QB who enjoyed his best professional season in 2022 under Van Pelt’s guidance. New general manager Eliot Wolf drafted Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker in the second and fourth rounds, but it remains a question of whether either is a future WR1. The offensive line should be solid, albeit with questions at left tackle. However, there is continuity and cohesion on the other side of the ball with a defense that returns 14 of the top 18 players from a group that finished in the top ten in total defense for the fourth time in the last five seasons after holding their opponents to just 301.6 Yards-Per-Game, ranking seventh in the NFL. The Patriots accomplished that despite edge rusher Matthew Judon and cornerbacks Christian Gonzalez and Marcus Jones missing most of the season. Linebackers coach (and former star player for Belichick) Jared Mayo takes over as head coach in this new era — and his player-friendly approach should provide an immediate breath of fresh air in the locker room. But even Belichick’s harshest critics would be foolish to suggest he was not still a defensive guru. Will the defense take a step back now without Belichick’s touch that ensured the tackling fundamentals were always sound (seven straight seasons top five in fewest broken tackles) and took away their opponents' top weapon (New England was third in Defensive DVOA against WR1s last year)? Wolf did not add any significant pieces on that side of the ball. The hope is that getting healthy again can keep the momentum going on defense. Better play at quarterback with at least some upgrade at the skill positions along with another tough defense could have the Patriots fighting for a playoff spot (remember, they made the playoffs three years ago and were still mathematically alive going into Week 17 two seasons ago). On the other hand, if the defense takes a step back without Belichick and the offensive problems continue, it could be a very long season in Foxboro.
NEW YORK JETS: In last year’s offseason in the first year with Aaron Rodgers under center, I questioned how the locker room would deal with all the distractions that have become part of the package of having the former MVP at quarterback. General manager Joe Douglass and head coach Robert Saleh were on the hot seat and seemingly going all-in on the Rodgers gamble. I also wondered if the Rodgers reconnection with Nathaniel Hackett, his offensive coordinator during some of his best seasons in Green Bay, would be fruitful or was Hackett simply his “yes man” who got exposed as a coach out of his element in his one season as the Denver head coach. A year later, we lack answers to those questions since Rodgers lasted only four snaps before he suffered his season-ending Achilles injury. Douglass, Saleh, and even Hackett were given mulligans after that injury on Monday Night Football. But now the seats are even hotter with everything banking on Rodgers successfully recovering from a serious leg injury at 41 years old. And the distractions keep marching on. Rodgers kept teasing that his recovery was ahead of schedule and that he could make a near-miraculous return late in the season. While less than a fourth-month recovery from a torn Achilles is rare, Rodgers claimed his innovative training and healing techniques (including listening to dolphin sounds) would have him ready. But inevitably in a scene reminiscent of NBA players begging to “hold me back” from on-the-court fights that no one ever planned to initiate, Rodgers’ services were never required in late December with the Jets limping to another 7-10 record. Since then, some of Rodgers’ antics include a few days where he was being considered to be the Vice Presidential candidate for Robert F. Kennedy’s vanity presidential bid before later blowing off mandatory training camp sessions for his “previously scheduled” trip to Egypt. It is hard not to consider Rodgers simply a carnival barker at this point of his career when he keeps on sounding like a carnival barker. He plans to be just the 16th quarterback in NFL history to play after turning 40. Father Time is undefeated — and when he comes knocking, the end comes quickly as Drew Brees and Brett Favre demonstrated in the final year of their careers. Both of those players were 41 years old when they experienced their sudden decline — but neither was coming off a major injury either when still playing at a high level at 40 years old. Maybe Rodgers’ statistical decline two years ago with the Packers was mostly a result of the departure of wide receiver Davante Adams. Maybe he replicates what Warren Moon once did and return from a major injury at 40 years old and plays at a high level. New York’s offensive line could be much better after left tackle Tyron Smith, left guard John Simpson, and right tackle Morgan Moses were signed as free agents, and then Penn State left tackle Olu Fashanu was drafted in the first round. The Jets have intriguing talent at the skill positions. The defense should remain elite with defensive tackle Quinnen Williams, linebacker Quincy Williams, and cornerback Sauce Gardner giving them All-Pros at all three levels. Peyton Manning was able to win a Super Bowl in Denver behind an outstanding defense despite being past his prime. This team does not need another MVP season from Rodgers to make a deep run. But the pressure cooker is tight for teams that are in Super Bowl or bust mode — especially ones that have not even made the playoffs since 2010. If Rodgers can’t walk the walk (even after dolphin sound therapy) — or gets injured again — things could implode very quickly.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS: The Steelers made the playoffs for the 11th time in head coach Mike Tomlin’s 17 years as their head coach — and the team has never had a losing season under his leadership. But Pittsburgh was still not a very good team before they lost at Buffalo by a 31-17 score in the AFC Wildcard round of the playoffs. They were outscored by 1.2 Points-Per-Game and outgained -38.8 net Yards-Per-Game in the regular season. While they had a 10-7 regular season record, their Pythagorean win total was just 7.9. They won nine of their 11 games decided by one scoring possession — and while Tomlin’s effective game management deserves some of the credit, they had several fluky victories. They scored two defensive touchdowns in their opening-week win against Cleveland before beating Baltimore later in the season from a blocked punt safety. They were outgained in 12 of their 17 regular season games but somehow still won six of those games. A silver lining is that after getting outgained in all ten of their games under the immensely underqualified offensive coordinator Matt Canada, Pittsburgh won the yardage battle in five of their last seven regular season games after he was fired. The offense has since been completely retooled with all three quarterbacks now gone. General manager Omar Khan brought in Russell Wilson and Justin Fields as inexpensive reclamation projects. Many observers will be bullish on Wilson finding new life with the Steelers — these are the folks who tend to think that “Russ Can’t Fail — he can only be failed!” The “Let Russ Cook” brigade can point to his 26:8 touchdown-to-interception ratio to advance that he was pretty, pretty good after all last season. Maybe … but that analysis gets refuted by Sean Payton’s decision to not only give up on Wilson after one year by also eat $85 million in dead cap money. Payton eventually deployed the Taysom Hill gameplans with Wilson in the second half of the season with the offense usually not throwing the ball even 30 times a game. Wilson seems to have paid close attention to Aaron Rodgers' seminar on Stat padding. Yes, Wilson completed 66.4% of his passes and threw just eight interceptions — but he held on to the ball too long with the third-highest seconds per pass attempt rate and taking 45 sacks. Wilson’s depth of targets continues to decline as well — his 6.9 Yards-Per-Attempt rate last year was the lowest of his career. And then there is Fields who led the NFL in seconds per pass attempt. Former Atlanta head coach Arthur Smith has his hands full as the new offensive coordinator. His schemes with the Falcons and previously as the OC for Tennessee are run-first with plenty of motion and play-action. Smith likes to use the middle of the field in the passing game, especially with his tight ends. But will this be a good fit with the risk-averse Wilson in the twilight of his career (and working for the veteran minimum this year? Only 13% of his passes last season were in the middle of the field. By the way, how much cognitive dissonance is required for Wilson dead-enders to be optimistic about his upcoming season in a run-heavy approach like the one in Seattle that initially spawned the “Let Russ Cook” fanaticism? Finally, there are the underlying cultural issues with this franchise. The players still love Tomlin — but in finishing 28th in the NFLPA’s postseason report card, the organization received Ds in Nutrition and in Travel while getting Fs in Ownership and the Locker room and an F- in Treatment of Families. The Seahawks Legion of Boom found Wilson to be phony before Payton concluded paying him $85 mill to play elsewhere was the preferred solution. How is he going to fit into this environment while issuing NDAs to teammates before they can socialize with him? And what if he loses the starting QB job to Fields? Then what? Maybe the Tomlin magic and a good defense will be enough for this team to overachieve once again now that a professional offensive coach is calling plays. On the other hand, the brewing situations underneath Tomlin’s management might finally boil over.
Best of luck -- Frank.
