by Hollywood Sports
Saturday, Aug 31, 2024 For the 14th straight summer, I invested time researching each NFL team to serve as the foundation for my handicapping in the fall and winter. What initially began as basic notetaking on some fundamental details for each team has become an arduous and detailed process for each team that derives from the reading and studying of multiple sources. Each NFL team now takes about two hours of preparation time as I add sources to my foundational work.
To help document this work while crystallizing my thoughts for each team, I am providing a summary of each team highlighted by a critical question that will go a long way in their success or failure. Here are my NFC teams (and I will add more of the writeups as the weeks move on).
ATLANTA FALCONS: I do not mind the individual decisions the Falcons made in the offseason — but after adding them all up, I am troubled by the sum of its parts. It seems clear that owner Arthur Blank no longer wanted to be at parties having to defend his underwhelming quarterback room. So general manager Terry Fontenot invests $180 million ($100 million guaranteed) on a 36-year-old quarterback with a 1-3 career postseason record and spotty results in prime-time coming off an Achilles injury. OK, Kirk Cousins was the best available quarterback in free agency. And then Fontenot drafts Michael Penix with the eighth pick in the NFL draft despite him his injury history (two ACL tears), and his older age (three years older than the 21-year-old J.J. McCarthy). OK, Penix has a great arm and perhaps coaching can help his touch when under pressure. But making both moves together incurs some heavy opportunity costs that will make another Super Bowl run for Blank even more difficult. Cousins is Plan A — but using the eighth pick on Penix cost them a top-level offensive lineman or wide receiver, or the top defensive player in the draft (given the initial run of offensive players). By the way, if Cousins has not recovered from Achilles' injury, then veteran Taylor Heinicke is likely their Plan B Day One starting quarterback. Plan C is then Penix — but how does this work? The ideal scenario is that Cousins wins a couple of Super Bowls … and then somehow gives up his job to make room for Penix in two or three years. OK, then Penix begins his starting career at 26 or 27 years old and two or three years into his rookie deal. That is not the best way to maximize value out of your franchise quarterback drafted in the top eight picks (but they do have two Super Bowl rings!). But even then, the pivot to Penix loses the guaranteed money in the Cousins contract ($50 million? $25 million?) that could be used to sign other players to help the new era. Of course, even winning one Super Bowl with Cousins under center is unlikely — his two postseason victories since high school are equal to what McCarthy achieved with Michigan since December. Any early missteps will have the fans calling on Penix to get a chance. Does the locker room hold? There are a lot of ways this plan goes sideways. I want to step back to consider Atlanta’s rehiring of Raheem Morris as their head coach. I like Morris and I think he deserved an opportunity — and I tend to like head coaches in their second opportunity. But the former Tampa Bay head coach was already in the building as the defensive coordinator for Dan Quinn in 2020-21! If he is such a bright star (and maybe he is), then Blank cannot let him leave in 2021 after he first Quinn! Instead, Blank hires Arthur Smith, the son of the owner of FedEx, but fires him three years later. OK, maybe the additional three years in Los Angeles as the Rams defensive coordinator was the experience Morris needed to take the final step in his development — but Blank had no guarantee he could ever get him back. They are is an internal inconsistency with all these decisions — and I suspect they all have the common denominator of a meddling owner getting antsy in the twilight of his life. Blowing a 28-3 lead in the Super Bowl may do that to all of us. Perhaps hiring Sean McVay’s passing game coordinator Zac Robinson unlocks the vast potential of running back Bijan Robinson, tight end Kyle Pitts, and wide receiver Drake London. Perhaps Morris overseeing the defense again helps the younger players develop (and not miss the losses of veteran defensive end Calais Campbell and linebacker Bud Dupree). Perhaps making sure the quarterback room is in the best shape possible is the most important consideration. OK … but there is a haphazardness regarding these major decisions — and the writing is already on the wall explaining how this experiment failed if all does not go according to (Blank’s) plan.
CAROLINA PANTHERS: The only area in which I feel comfortable prognosticating about the Panthers is that their defense is going to take several steps back from ranking fourth in the NFL by holding their opponents to 293.9 Yards-Per-Game. That appears to be a number helped by Carolina’s negative game states and anemic offense. Despite their two victories last year, they did not play a down in the fourth quarter last year where they enjoyed a lead. The deeper analytics expose this: the Panthers ranked 26th in EPA per Play allowed and 20th in Opponent Success Rate Allowed. That defense replaces many of their best players — most notable linebackers Brent Burns and Frankie Luvu who combined for 49 pressures on the quarterback while being both strong run defenders. The likely regression of the defense is the subtext for the biggest question regarding the potential of second-year quarterback Bryce Young. In his defense, his support at the skill positions was laughable. When 33-year-old Adam Thielen catches 103 balls, it’s not because the “guy still has it.” The picture boy in the dictionary for empty calories only averaged 9.8 Yards-Per-Reception as defenses were overjoyed to allow another dump off to the zero YAC risk. With all five starters returning on the offensive line, pass protection was supposed to be an area of strength. Instead, some injuries and the regression of second-year left tackle Ikem Ekwonu led to a nightmare where Young was sacked 62 times — and the -477 sack yards lost was the third most in NFL history. It is easy to jump to conclusions about the 5’11 QB seemed undersized coming into the league at 204 pounds. But after Carolina traded WR1 D.J. Moore to Chicago (who wanted to help their young QB), Young was left with Terrace Marshall, free agent D.J. Chark, and rookie Jonathan Bingo. His dump-offs to Thielen make sense. And then there is the dysfunctional management approach of venture capital GOD! turned NFL owner David Tepper who pulled the trigger on his third midseason head coaching firing in the last five seasons in between dumping his next vodka-tonics on his heckling fan base. So quarterback whisperer Frank Reich is out and replaced by the next quarterback whisperer flavor of the month in Dave Canales. And maybe the 43-year-old has great potential — but two years ago at this time, he was the quarterbacks coach for Seattle. I worry about his inexperience as a manager of a team — and that worry is compounded by his decision to call his own plays — but when you just called the plays for a Tampa Bay offense that ranked the fourth worst in first and second down efficiency using the metrics of the Football Outsiders’ DVOA numbers, how could one resist? Rookie general manager Dan Morgan traded for Pittsburgh wide receiver Diontae Johnson and drafted South Carolina wide receiver Xavier Legette in the first round. Morgan also overpaid for two guards in the free agent market — and the $73 million cap money dollars in their offensive line this season shatters the NFL record. Maybe this will truly help unlock Young and improve an offense that was last in the league by only generating 265.3 Yards-Per-Game? I think it is too early to come to conclusions about Young — but it is easy to be skeptical.
CHICAGO BEARS: The hype revolves around Caleb Williams whom the Bears selected in the first pick in the NFL draft. General manager Ryan Poles will not be accused of not putting their next potential franchise quarterback into a position to succeed. After trading for wide receiver D.J. Moore to bolster an anemic wide receiver room for Justin Fields last year, Poles traded for Keenan Allen from the Chargers and signed running back D’Andre Swift as a free agent who can catch balls out of the backfield. Poles also drafted Washington wide receiver Rome Odenze with the ninth pick in the draft — and the fully-capable X wideout as the third option in this attack along with tight end Cole Kmet who caught 73 balls last year makes this offense look much, much better than in years past. But the defense should be the better unit that made a dramatic improvement in the second half of the season. Certainly, the acquisition of defensive end Montez Sweat from Halloween deserves much of the credit. But this unit got healthier as they continued to progress under second-year head coach Matt Eberflus’ schemes. It goes deeper. Eberflus started calling the plays after defensive coordinator Alan Williams left the team (and was later dismissed) for personal reasons. Eberflus likes Cover-3 concepts — but he started using Cover-2 and Quarters coverages in the second half of the season. So for a variety of reasons, the Bears ranked ninth in the NFL in Yards-Per-Game allowed in their last nine games with Sweat. They sacked the quarterback 20 times in those last nine games — and they ranked third in the league in opponent Passer Rating. Additionally, they went from 19th in the NFL to third in takeaways with 19 forced turnovers after acquiring Sweat — and they finished the season tied for first in takeaways. In the second half of the season, they ended a drive via an interception 18% of the time. Since Week 10, they ranked 10th in the league in the Football Outsiders’ DVOA ranking when playing in Cover-2. And after ranking 18th in the league in run defense after Week Four, they ended the season the stingiest unit in the league by allowing just 86.4 rushing Yards-Per-Game for the season. The defense should be quite good — but we are still talking about a rookie quarterback.
DALLAS COWBOYS: Under head coach Mike McCarthy, the Cowboys have mastered the art of the Flat Track Bully. They have gone 12-5 in the regular season for three straight seasons. Last year, they outscored their opponents by +11.4 net Points-Per-Game and outgained them by +71.9 net Yards-Per-Game. Yet they have lost six of their nine games in the postseason in the last 11 seasons after a humiliating 48-32 loss at home to Green Bay in the NFC Wildcard round that seemed to serve as an indictment for every member of the organization. Yet rather than cleaning house, owner/president/general manager/podcaster Jerry Jones translated his initial “all-in” mantra to only signing three free agents while losing five starters to the market. The top running back may be Ezekiel Elliott who they let go last season in free agency. Another of those three significant free agent hires was running back Royce Freeman, who barely got time with the Los Angeles Rams last year. There is a theory that all Jones cares about is keeping the Cowboys in the news. With McCarthy and quarterback Dan Prescott headlining a long list, the hot seat is a rather wide this season in Dallas.
DETROIT LIONS: After almost upsetting the 49ers on the road in San Francisco to reach the Super Bowl, the Lions are a trendy pick to get the opportunity to win the Lombardi Trophy this year. Nine starters return from an offense that has ranked in the top-four Yards-Per-Game in two straight seasons — and they scored at least 30 points in 11 games last year. If you like teams with great offensive lines (and I do), then it is easy to love Detroit’s group that returns four starters including a pair of All-Pros in right tackle Penei Sewell and center Frank Ragnow, The skill positions are loaded with stars that will be drafted early in all the fantasy drafts. But there are concerns. A lot is being asked of third-year wide receiver Jameson Williams to step up as a credible option despite catching only 24 balls last year after missing half the season due to a gambling suspension. He missed almost his entire rookie season after tearing his ACL in January when he was still playing at Alabama. General manager Brad Holmes traded up for him anyway — as he is wont to do. Williams is a deep threat — but if he is only a deep threat and continues to be flaky, then this offense may lack a reliable second option at wide receiver to complement slot receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown and tight end Sam LaPorta. A second pass-rushing defensive end is also an area of weakness. Led by Aidan Hutchinson, Detroit led the NFL in pressure rate on the quarterback — but they were just 23 in actual sacks. The Lions have James Houston back from injury last year after he registered eight sacks in seven games as a rookie — but was that a fluke or a flash of the potential of the former sixth-round pick? Third-year pro Josh Paschal has not developed as a second-round pick. Holmes signed defensive end Marcus Davenport away from Minnesota — but he has played more than 13 games just once in his six-year career. Defensive coordinator generates pressure by being aggressive with blitz calls — but this only puts more pressure on the cornerbacks which are the weak link of this team. The Lions ranked 27th in the league by allowing 247.4 passing Yards-Per-Game — and they were last by surrendering 69 receptions of 20 or more yards. After the team cut their top cornerback Cam Sutton after his off-the-field incident that led to an NFL suspension, Holmes made the secondary his highest priority by signing for Tampa Bay cornerback Carlton Davis III and then trading up twice in the draft (of course) to select Alabama corner Terrion Arnold in the first round and Missouri corner Ennis Rakastraw in the second round. Kudos to Holmes for aggressively identifying an area of extreme need — but he did the last season as well. Holmes signed Sutton as a free agent from Pittsburgh last year as well as cornerbacks Emmanuel Moseley and C.J. Gardner-Johnson — and he traded up (of course) to draft safety Brian Branch. The Branch pick looks great in hindsight — but Moseley suffered an injury early in Game One and Gardner-Johnson missed most of the year with an injury. Depth at cornerback became a significant drawback in the second half of the season. Now Sutton and Gardner-Johnson are gone. These plans are not foolproof. Falling in love with players in the draft — and then trading up for them comes at a cost. Former general manager Matt Millen would do that a lot. The third-round picks Holmes is giving away could have added another wideout, a defensive end, a cornerback. Maybe Holmes' plan continues to work. But for a franchise to win their first playoff game since 1991 and then just miss a shot at the Super Bowl when head coach Dan Campbell’s aggressiveness backfired (another topic altogether), the foundation may not be nearly as firm now that linebacker Alex Anzalone is declaring this season as “Super Bowl or bust” when this is the first time in a very long time where they will be the chased rather than an after thought. If things begin to unravel from more injuries (exposing depth problems), more game management mishaps from the biting knees guy, to failures to solve the WR2, DE2, or cornerback issues (two rookies and Davis III who has been shaky since winning the Super Bowl with the Buccaneers), and just bad luck courtesy of the Regression Gods, then the wheels could fall off rather quickly. It would not be the first time flash in the pans bottom in this league.
GREEN BAY PACKERS: One of my questions in the offseason last year when assessing the Packers regarded the possibility that the team’s divorce from Aaron Rodgers would finally put the offense in the complete hands of head coach Matt LaFleur: “to fully implement his vision of the offense without catering to the whims of Rodgers.” And with Jordan Love, he may have the type of player that Kyle Shanahan was hoping to unlock with Trey Lance: a point guard-styled quarterback who offers the additional weapon with his mobility.” A year later, I think LaFleur deserves a ton of credit — especially for the way both sides of the ball continued to improve throughout the season. In hindsight, I did not appreciate the development and evolution of the Packers offense that took place midseason all the way through their 48-32 demolition of the Cowboys on the road in Dallas before their narrow 24-21 loss at San Francisco in the Divisional Round of the NFC playoffs. Quarterback Jordan Love should have been expected to improve as he got more experience — but it was much more than that. After Week Nine, LaFleur implored on his quarterback to “shut his mind off and let it rip.” LaFleur also followed his own advice by getting more aggressive with his play-calling, especially with the use of pre-snap motion (48.5% of all plays through Week Nine, 60.4% of all plays afterward). In Love’s last eight games (including their two playoff games), he completed 70.3% of his passes for 2150 yards with 18 touchdown passes and just one interception and a Passer Rating of 112.7. The pre-snap motion seemed to unlock Love’s proficiency with deep passes. And these numbers were accrued with wide receiver Christian Watson missing time in December with another injury-riddled season. The Packers’ season ended with Love throwing a bad interception in triple coverage against the 49ers which makes me still consider if the improvement on offense was more a result of LaFleur’s schematic genius or Love’s development. But it is undeniable that Green Bay ranked second in the Football Outsiders’ DVOA metrics on offense in the second half of the season. The post-Rodgers transition seems very promising. General manager Brian Gutekunst is committed to building this team from the draft after 35 picks in the last three seasons after their 11 rookies drafted in April. This “Green and Growing” approach resulted in only five players added via free agency in the offseason. The fruits of this labor are evident. When LaFleur laments the media’s focus on “who is the number one receiver” narratives, the Packers have a deep set of young wide receivers with a diverse skill set that plays right into the play-calling LaFleur seems to have chomping on the bit to execute since calling ill-advised fourth-and-goal plays as the OC for Tennessee years ago. Getting Watson healthy for an entire season only expands the possibilities. Gutekunst got younger at running back by releasing Aaron Jones and signing Josh Jacobs who should unleash more play-action pass possibilities. LaFleur also dismissed defensive coordinator Joe Barry in an addition-by-subtraction move in the offseason and hired a veteran NFL secondary coach in Jeff Hafley who had been the head coach at Boston College. Hafley’s aggressive tactics and 4-3 schemes may be a better fit for his personnel. If edge rusher Rashon Gary and cornerback Jaire Alexander can regain their previous form after down seasons, the Packers defense could take a big step up. Their defensive line is the unit’s strength with plenty of depth.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS: There are wildly different opinions regarding the state of this organization — and most of the disagreement starts with the evaluation of general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah’s first two years running the football operations. Coming off a 13-4 regular season, did Adofo-Mensah blow the Vikings’ opportunity to win the NFC North last year by not resigning running back Dalvin Cook? Minnesota only generated seven rushing touchdowns last year. And he is making this worse by not resigning veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins in the offseason. Or, did Adofo-Mensah wisely not take the bait from that 13-4 campaign that ended with a seven-point loss at home to the New York Giants after a regular season where they got outscored and outgained? Despite a 7-10 campaign last year with Cousins missing nine games to injury and superstar wide receiver Justin Jefferson out seven games to injury, the Vikings only got outscored by 18 points over the entire season, just a 15 net difference in points from the previous year (and the 13-4 regular season mark). Adofo-Mensah began his tenure embracing a “competitive rebuild.” Resigning Jefferson for another four years while letting someone else take the chance to pay tons of money for an aging quarterback coming off a torn ACL seems pretty wise to me. And seemingly keeping to the script for this franchise, they selected J.J. McCarthy in the first round of the NFL draft who drew as divisive of pre-draft coverage as I have ever seen. I might have watched every snap McCarthy took under center for Michigan in his career. He is not a perfect prospect, and I think I have a good sense of what his challenges will be in becoming a good professional quarterback. But an entire book can be written about either uninformed or simply inaccurate assessments made about him by the “professional” or cottage industry draft experts. The 21-year-old ran a 4.48 seconds time in the 40-yard dash. That’s fast, and I won’t comment on why many observers conclude his mobility is “average.” And with one set of pundits who I have great respect for their insight on the NFL, they made the hasty generalization that McCarthy was the beneficiary of the Wolverines’ great ground game that set him up for pass-action success. That’s simply not how the Michigan offense operated last year. Check the fan boards complaining about the lack of play-action with the hope that those plays would be unleashed in the Ohio State and then Alabama showdowns. In fact, too often McCarthy bailed the offense out on third-and-long with his arm or his legs after two successive running plays from a ground game not as effective as it was the year before. None of this is to say that McCarthy will have a great professional career — even before what he can potentially do as a rookie. But the Adofe-Mensah haters have plenty of ammunition to continue to hate. I’m kinda bullish of what McCarthy can do under head coach Kevin O’Connell’s guidance with weapons like Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockensen (and McCarthy knows how to use tight ends). The analytics suggested Minnesota was an eight-win team two years ago (their Pythagorean win tally was 8.4) — and they only dropped to 8.0 Pythagorean wins last year. The running back room should be better with Aaron Jones who averaged 4.6 Yards-Per-Carry last season and thrives when the QB is under center. Defensive coordinator Brian Flores oversaw a unit that improved from 31st in the league in total defense to 16th by allowing only 333.2 total Yards-Per-Game. While Flores is aggressive, he also disguises and misdirects his schemes — and he is great at tailoring his game plans to the talent of his players. While this team is unlikely to replicate the 13-4 record from two seasons ago, this might very well be the best overall team under the O’Connell and Adofo-Mensah regime in their three seasons on the job.
NEW YORK GIANTS: It was a fateful January afternoon when the Giants visited Minnesota to play the Vikings in the Wildcard Round of the playoffs two seasons ago. Both teams had significantly overperformed their underlying analytics — most notably, both teams got outscored and outgained in yardage in the regular season. New York pulled off the upset to advance to the NFC Divisional Round. In the offseason, the Vikings management treated their roster as one that more resembled a .500 team than one that won 13 games in the regular season. They released running back Dalvin Cook rather than sign him to an expensive contract. They did not extend quarterback Kirk Cousins’ contract. The Giants, on the other hand, ignored the 38-7 shellacking they received the next week at Philadelphia and behaved as if they had a roster ready to take the next step rather than being fortunate even to make the playoffs and then face another pretender. General manager Joe Schoen gave quarterback Daniel Jones a new four-year $160 million deal. He resigned running back Saquon Barkley at a base of $10.1 million. New York kicked off their season with a confidence that was quickly shattered in a humiliating 40-0 loss in Dallas. Jones was sacked eight times by a disastrous offensive line that would go on to allow 85 sacks on the year, the second most in NFL history since they began tracking that stat in 1982. Jones got sacked 28 times in five games before going down with a knock injury. When he returned later in the season, he tore his ACL in the second quarter against Las Vegas. The Giants closed the season with a 6-11 record. As Minnesota drafted their hopeful next franchise quarterback as they continue to rebuild, head coach Brian Daboll along with Shoen and Jones are all on the hot seat in a make-it-or-break-it year. Daboll has reshuffled his coaching staff headlined by new defensive coordinator Shane Bowen. But he hired the previous “bums” — and former defensive coordinator Don Martindale had a good reputation in the league. Daboll is a screamer on the headset during the games — an act that wears thin. Martindale’s defenses are blitz-happy — but that also protected a young secondary and helped New York tie for NFL-lead with 31 takeaways (all after Week Four). Injuries played a big role — so the offensive line could improve if they stay healthy. Jones regressed after an encouraging first year under Daboll — but better protection could get him back to his 2022-23 form. Barkley was not resigned with the offense turning to a running back by committee approach. After ranking last in Explosive Plays, LSU wide receiver Malik Nabers was drafted in the first round. But I have to go back to Schoen and his decision-making. His first two drafts have resulted in far too many misses: first-round pick right tackle Evan Deal, third-round wide receiver picks WanDale Robinson and Jalen Hyatt. He continues to sign retread after retread in free agency. Just on the offensive line, after adding four free agents and drafting two rookies in the first three rounds in his first draft in 2022, he signed another five free agents this offseason — but did not draft an offensive lineman. Perhaps Schoen knows he no longer has the time to wait on a rookie to develop after all six of his acquisitions in his first year have all seemed to flop (only his two draft picks remain on the team)? A healthy and improved offensive line could help Jones — and adding Nabors may finally address the gaping hole at WR1. But with Daboll’s leadership skills now in question, it will not seem like it will take much for this organization to implode, yet again. And that would put them at least three years behind that Vikings team they upset in early 2022.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: My biggest concern about last year’s Eagles team was their defense being overrated after ranking second in total yards allowed. Their Super Bowl run involved some luck regarding quarterback injuries that complemented a soft schedule — and they lost five defensive starters from that group. Sure enough, Philly’s defense imploded last season; They ranked 30th in the league by allowing 25.2 Points-Per-Game — and the Football Outsiders’ DVOA metrics ranked their defense 29th in the NFL. The main culprit was their pass defense that ranked second-to-last by allowing 252.7 passing Yards-Per-Game and surrendering 31 touchdown passes. A pass rush that registered 70 sacks in their Super Bowl run only managed 43 sacks last year. General manager Howie Roseman addressed the secondary in the NFL draft and resigned safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson from Detroit. But defensive tackle Fletcher Cox returned and linebacker Hassan Reddick. The once lauded Georgia Defense North including recent Bulldogs’ draft picks nose tackle Jordan Davis, defensive tackle Jalen Carter, and linebackers Nakobe Dean and Nolan Smith, Jr. have all been disappointments — it needs to be considered that perhaps they are overachieving products a college defensive unit loaded with talent. And this is all before we get to the dumpster fire end of the season when the team quit in an embarrassing 32-9 loss at Tampa Bay in the NFC Wildcard playoff round to culminate in losing six of their final seven games. Fourth-year head coach Nick Sirianni is clearly on the hot seat after overseeing that mess. He cleaned house by firing the coordinators on both sides of the ball — but he hired the bums in the first place! In hindsight, perhaps the true brain power behind their Super Bowl run in 2022-23 was offensive coordinator Shane Steichen and defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon who are now the head coaches of Indianapolis and Arizona respectively. Now after tapping two relatively inexperienced coordinators last year, Sirianni turned to former Dallas offensive coordinator Kellen Moore and former Denver head coach and big personality Vic Fangio as his defensive coordinator. Both hires are high-risk, high-reward. The conceptual fit with Moore in the RPO offense designed for quarterback Jalen Hurts may be troublesome. Moore loves to use motion — but the Eagles' offense has been static to allow for simpler decisions for Hurts: run the ball when the box is light, pass the ball if wide receivers A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith encounter thin coverage. Opposing defenses may have caught up to Hurts last season as they found success goading him into ill-advised passes that did not match the situation and abandoned their elite offensive line. His 15 interceptions last season was a career-high. While the offense needs a schematic rethink, Hurts may not be the ideal QB to effectively execute a motion-heavy offense that muddies the picture he is seeing. And, by the way, how much will the retirement of center Jason Kelce impact the offensive line? Was he the cheat code that made the “Brotherly Shove” so much more effective than the other copycats in the league? The defense also undergoes a schematic change with Fangio implementing his patented two-high shell safety system that he had so much success with in his long career as a defensive coordinator. His one-year tenure in Miami as their defensive coordinator was rocky. Sirianni was already bullied by “special assistant” Matt Patricia into relieving Sean Desai of his playing calling duties late last season (no surprise: the defense did not improve when Patricia attempted to install his new system post-Thanksgiving). Maybe the hires will reap immediate improvements on both sides of the ball. Maybe going young at cornerback and making a big splash by signing running back Saquon Barkley as a free agent gives the attack one more weapon to make it nearly unstoppable. Maybe the Georgia contingent sees the light turn on and take significant steps to meet their vast potential. But hiring two new coordinators is turbulent — and to be doing it in the second year in a row is even more tumultuous. And this time around, Sirianni hired two coaches who either could replace him later in the season if things do not turn around.
WASHINGTON COMMANDERS: The Commanders dropped from 8-8-1 to 4-13 last season in what quickly became a lame-duck season for head coach Ron Rivera and general manager Martin Mayhew. After the team traded away defensive ends Montez Sweat and Chase Young at the trade deadline, the writing was on the wall and the remaining players were listless in some blowout losses. So the Washington defense ranking last by allowing 30.5 Points-Per-Game, 388.9 total Yards-Per-Game, and 262.2 Passing YPG should probably be taken with a grain of salt. We are now more than a year into the Brave New World under new owner Josh Harris who has replaced the toxic environment under Dan Snyder with new variations of embracing “the process” that has brought so many NBA Finals appearances for the Philadelphia 76ers under his leadership. Former Dallas defensive coordinator Dan Quinn is the head coach (after Detroit offensive coordinator Ben Johnson turned the job down after complaining about too many NBA folks involved in football decisions). Quinn took the Atlanta Falcons to the Super Bowl before watching his offensive coordinator, Kyle Shanahan, game-management his way to helping Tom Brady orchestrate New England’s 28-3 comeback victory. He hired Kliff Kingsbury as his offensive coordinator to help the former college head coach of Patrick Mahomes continue his failing upward career trajectory. Kingsbury has been in the same room with some talented quarterbacks — but now his challenge is to help Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels succeed behind a refurbished offensive line that allowed Sam Howell to get sacked a league-leading 65 times last year. Daniels is thin and took too many hits last year — if his breakout senior season was a product of great talent at wide receiver at LSU, it could be a long season for the Commanders. On the other hand, Daniels is a legitimate dual-threat QB who could jumpstart this offense like C.J. Stroud last year. Quinn is a proven defensive wizard with elite defenses in Seattle before the Falcons and Cowboys — so even an upgrade to the middle of the pack would do wonders for this team.
Best of luck -- Frank.
To help document this work while crystallizing my thoughts for each team, I am providing a summary of each team highlighted by a critical question that will go a long way in their success or failure. Here are my NFC teams (and I will add more of the writeups as the weeks move on).
ATLANTA FALCONS: I do not mind the individual decisions the Falcons made in the offseason — but after adding them all up, I am troubled by the sum of its parts. It seems clear that owner Arthur Blank no longer wanted to be at parties having to defend his underwhelming quarterback room. So general manager Terry Fontenot invests $180 million ($100 million guaranteed) on a 36-year-old quarterback with a 1-3 career postseason record and spotty results in prime-time coming off an Achilles injury. OK, Kirk Cousins was the best available quarterback in free agency. And then Fontenot drafts Michael Penix with the eighth pick in the NFL draft despite him his injury history (two ACL tears), and his older age (three years older than the 21-year-old J.J. McCarthy). OK, Penix has a great arm and perhaps coaching can help his touch when under pressure. But making both moves together incurs some heavy opportunity costs that will make another Super Bowl run for Blank even more difficult. Cousins is Plan A — but using the eighth pick on Penix cost them a top-level offensive lineman or wide receiver, or the top defensive player in the draft (given the initial run of offensive players). By the way, if Cousins has not recovered from Achilles' injury, then veteran Taylor Heinicke is likely their Plan B Day One starting quarterback. Plan C is then Penix — but how does this work? The ideal scenario is that Cousins wins a couple of Super Bowls … and then somehow gives up his job to make room for Penix in two or three years. OK, then Penix begins his starting career at 26 or 27 years old and two or three years into his rookie deal. That is not the best way to maximize value out of your franchise quarterback drafted in the top eight picks (but they do have two Super Bowl rings!). But even then, the pivot to Penix loses the guaranteed money in the Cousins contract ($50 million? $25 million?) that could be used to sign other players to help the new era. Of course, even winning one Super Bowl with Cousins under center is unlikely — his two postseason victories since high school are equal to what McCarthy achieved with Michigan since December. Any early missteps will have the fans calling on Penix to get a chance. Does the locker room hold? There are a lot of ways this plan goes sideways. I want to step back to consider Atlanta’s rehiring of Raheem Morris as their head coach. I like Morris and I think he deserved an opportunity — and I tend to like head coaches in their second opportunity. But the former Tampa Bay head coach was already in the building as the defensive coordinator for Dan Quinn in 2020-21! If he is such a bright star (and maybe he is), then Blank cannot let him leave in 2021 after he first Quinn! Instead, Blank hires Arthur Smith, the son of the owner of FedEx, but fires him three years later. OK, maybe the additional three years in Los Angeles as the Rams defensive coordinator was the experience Morris needed to take the final step in his development — but Blank had no guarantee he could ever get him back. They are is an internal inconsistency with all these decisions — and I suspect they all have the common denominator of a meddling owner getting antsy in the twilight of his life. Blowing a 28-3 lead in the Super Bowl may do that to all of us. Perhaps hiring Sean McVay’s passing game coordinator Zac Robinson unlocks the vast potential of running back Bijan Robinson, tight end Kyle Pitts, and wide receiver Drake London. Perhaps Morris overseeing the defense again helps the younger players develop (and not miss the losses of veteran defensive end Calais Campbell and linebacker Bud Dupree). Perhaps making sure the quarterback room is in the best shape possible is the most important consideration. OK … but there is a haphazardness regarding these major decisions — and the writing is already on the wall explaining how this experiment failed if all does not go according to (Blank’s) plan.
CAROLINA PANTHERS: The only area in which I feel comfortable prognosticating about the Panthers is that their defense is going to take several steps back from ranking fourth in the NFL by holding their opponents to 293.9 Yards-Per-Game. That appears to be a number helped by Carolina’s negative game states and anemic offense. Despite their two victories last year, they did not play a down in the fourth quarter last year where they enjoyed a lead. The deeper analytics expose this: the Panthers ranked 26th in EPA per Play allowed and 20th in Opponent Success Rate Allowed. That defense replaces many of their best players — most notable linebackers Brent Burns and Frankie Luvu who combined for 49 pressures on the quarterback while being both strong run defenders. The likely regression of the defense is the subtext for the biggest question regarding the potential of second-year quarterback Bryce Young. In his defense, his support at the skill positions was laughable. When 33-year-old Adam Thielen catches 103 balls, it’s not because the “guy still has it.” The picture boy in the dictionary for empty calories only averaged 9.8 Yards-Per-Reception as defenses were overjoyed to allow another dump off to the zero YAC risk. With all five starters returning on the offensive line, pass protection was supposed to be an area of strength. Instead, some injuries and the regression of second-year left tackle Ikem Ekwonu led to a nightmare where Young was sacked 62 times — and the -477 sack yards lost was the third most in NFL history. It is easy to jump to conclusions about the 5’11 QB seemed undersized coming into the league at 204 pounds. But after Carolina traded WR1 D.J. Moore to Chicago (who wanted to help their young QB), Young was left with Terrace Marshall, free agent D.J. Chark, and rookie Jonathan Bingo. His dump-offs to Thielen make sense. And then there is the dysfunctional management approach of venture capital GOD! turned NFL owner David Tepper who pulled the trigger on his third midseason head coaching firing in the last five seasons in between dumping his next vodka-tonics on his heckling fan base. So quarterback whisperer Frank Reich is out and replaced by the next quarterback whisperer flavor of the month in Dave Canales. And maybe the 43-year-old has great potential — but two years ago at this time, he was the quarterbacks coach for Seattle. I worry about his inexperience as a manager of a team — and that worry is compounded by his decision to call his own plays — but when you just called the plays for a Tampa Bay offense that ranked the fourth worst in first and second down efficiency using the metrics of the Football Outsiders’ DVOA numbers, how could one resist? Rookie general manager Dan Morgan traded for Pittsburgh wide receiver Diontae Johnson and drafted South Carolina wide receiver Xavier Legette in the first round. Morgan also overpaid for two guards in the free agent market — and the $73 million cap money dollars in their offensive line this season shatters the NFL record. Maybe this will truly help unlock Young and improve an offense that was last in the league by only generating 265.3 Yards-Per-Game? I think it is too early to come to conclusions about Young — but it is easy to be skeptical.
CHICAGO BEARS: The hype revolves around Caleb Williams whom the Bears selected in the first pick in the NFL draft. General manager Ryan Poles will not be accused of not putting their next potential franchise quarterback into a position to succeed. After trading for wide receiver D.J. Moore to bolster an anemic wide receiver room for Justin Fields last year, Poles traded for Keenan Allen from the Chargers and signed running back D’Andre Swift as a free agent who can catch balls out of the backfield. Poles also drafted Washington wide receiver Rome Odenze with the ninth pick in the draft — and the fully-capable X wideout as the third option in this attack along with tight end Cole Kmet who caught 73 balls last year makes this offense look much, much better than in years past. But the defense should be the better unit that made a dramatic improvement in the second half of the season. Certainly, the acquisition of defensive end Montez Sweat from Halloween deserves much of the credit. But this unit got healthier as they continued to progress under second-year head coach Matt Eberflus’ schemes. It goes deeper. Eberflus started calling the plays after defensive coordinator Alan Williams left the team (and was later dismissed) for personal reasons. Eberflus likes Cover-3 concepts — but he started using Cover-2 and Quarters coverages in the second half of the season. So for a variety of reasons, the Bears ranked ninth in the NFL in Yards-Per-Game allowed in their last nine games with Sweat. They sacked the quarterback 20 times in those last nine games — and they ranked third in the league in opponent Passer Rating. Additionally, they went from 19th in the NFL to third in takeaways with 19 forced turnovers after acquiring Sweat — and they finished the season tied for first in takeaways. In the second half of the season, they ended a drive via an interception 18% of the time. Since Week 10, they ranked 10th in the league in the Football Outsiders’ DVOA ranking when playing in Cover-2. And after ranking 18th in the league in run defense after Week Four, they ended the season the stingiest unit in the league by allowing just 86.4 rushing Yards-Per-Game for the season. The defense should be quite good — but we are still talking about a rookie quarterback.
DALLAS COWBOYS: Under head coach Mike McCarthy, the Cowboys have mastered the art of the Flat Track Bully. They have gone 12-5 in the regular season for three straight seasons. Last year, they outscored their opponents by +11.4 net Points-Per-Game and outgained them by +71.9 net Yards-Per-Game. Yet they have lost six of their nine games in the postseason in the last 11 seasons after a humiliating 48-32 loss at home to Green Bay in the NFC Wildcard round that seemed to serve as an indictment for every member of the organization. Yet rather than cleaning house, owner/president/general manager/podcaster Jerry Jones translated his initial “all-in” mantra to only signing three free agents while losing five starters to the market. The top running back may be Ezekiel Elliott who they let go last season in free agency. Another of those three significant free agent hires was running back Royce Freeman, who barely got time with the Los Angeles Rams last year. There is a theory that all Jones cares about is keeping the Cowboys in the news. With McCarthy and quarterback Dan Prescott headlining a long list, the hot seat is a rather wide this season in Dallas.
DETROIT LIONS: After almost upsetting the 49ers on the road in San Francisco to reach the Super Bowl, the Lions are a trendy pick to get the opportunity to win the Lombardi Trophy this year. Nine starters return from an offense that has ranked in the top-four Yards-Per-Game in two straight seasons — and they scored at least 30 points in 11 games last year. If you like teams with great offensive lines (and I do), then it is easy to love Detroit’s group that returns four starters including a pair of All-Pros in right tackle Penei Sewell and center Frank Ragnow, The skill positions are loaded with stars that will be drafted early in all the fantasy drafts. But there are concerns. A lot is being asked of third-year wide receiver Jameson Williams to step up as a credible option despite catching only 24 balls last year after missing half the season due to a gambling suspension. He missed almost his entire rookie season after tearing his ACL in January when he was still playing at Alabama. General manager Brad Holmes traded up for him anyway — as he is wont to do. Williams is a deep threat — but if he is only a deep threat and continues to be flaky, then this offense may lack a reliable second option at wide receiver to complement slot receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown and tight end Sam LaPorta. A second pass-rushing defensive end is also an area of weakness. Led by Aidan Hutchinson, Detroit led the NFL in pressure rate on the quarterback — but they were just 23 in actual sacks. The Lions have James Houston back from injury last year after he registered eight sacks in seven games as a rookie — but was that a fluke or a flash of the potential of the former sixth-round pick? Third-year pro Josh Paschal has not developed as a second-round pick. Holmes signed defensive end Marcus Davenport away from Minnesota — but he has played more than 13 games just once in his six-year career. Defensive coordinator generates pressure by being aggressive with blitz calls — but this only puts more pressure on the cornerbacks which are the weak link of this team. The Lions ranked 27th in the league by allowing 247.4 passing Yards-Per-Game — and they were last by surrendering 69 receptions of 20 or more yards. After the team cut their top cornerback Cam Sutton after his off-the-field incident that led to an NFL suspension, Holmes made the secondary his highest priority by signing for Tampa Bay cornerback Carlton Davis III and then trading up twice in the draft (of course) to select Alabama corner Terrion Arnold in the first round and Missouri corner Ennis Rakastraw in the second round. Kudos to Holmes for aggressively identifying an area of extreme need — but he did the last season as well. Holmes signed Sutton as a free agent from Pittsburgh last year as well as cornerbacks Emmanuel Moseley and C.J. Gardner-Johnson — and he traded up (of course) to draft safety Brian Branch. The Branch pick looks great in hindsight — but Moseley suffered an injury early in Game One and Gardner-Johnson missed most of the year with an injury. Depth at cornerback became a significant drawback in the second half of the season. Now Sutton and Gardner-Johnson are gone. These plans are not foolproof. Falling in love with players in the draft — and then trading up for them comes at a cost. Former general manager Matt Millen would do that a lot. The third-round picks Holmes is giving away could have added another wideout, a defensive end, a cornerback. Maybe Holmes' plan continues to work. But for a franchise to win their first playoff game since 1991 and then just miss a shot at the Super Bowl when head coach Dan Campbell’s aggressiveness backfired (another topic altogether), the foundation may not be nearly as firm now that linebacker Alex Anzalone is declaring this season as “Super Bowl or bust” when this is the first time in a very long time where they will be the chased rather than an after thought. If things begin to unravel from more injuries (exposing depth problems), more game management mishaps from the biting knees guy, to failures to solve the WR2, DE2, or cornerback issues (two rookies and Davis III who has been shaky since winning the Super Bowl with the Buccaneers), and just bad luck courtesy of the Regression Gods, then the wheels could fall off rather quickly. It would not be the first time flash in the pans bottom in this league.
GREEN BAY PACKERS: One of my questions in the offseason last year when assessing the Packers regarded the possibility that the team’s divorce from Aaron Rodgers would finally put the offense in the complete hands of head coach Matt LaFleur: “to fully implement his vision of the offense without catering to the whims of Rodgers.” And with Jordan Love, he may have the type of player that Kyle Shanahan was hoping to unlock with Trey Lance: a point guard-styled quarterback who offers the additional weapon with his mobility.” A year later, I think LaFleur deserves a ton of credit — especially for the way both sides of the ball continued to improve throughout the season. In hindsight, I did not appreciate the development and evolution of the Packers offense that took place midseason all the way through their 48-32 demolition of the Cowboys on the road in Dallas before their narrow 24-21 loss at San Francisco in the Divisional Round of the NFC playoffs. Quarterback Jordan Love should have been expected to improve as he got more experience — but it was much more than that. After Week Nine, LaFleur implored on his quarterback to “shut his mind off and let it rip.” LaFleur also followed his own advice by getting more aggressive with his play-calling, especially with the use of pre-snap motion (48.5% of all plays through Week Nine, 60.4% of all plays afterward). In Love’s last eight games (including their two playoff games), he completed 70.3% of his passes for 2150 yards with 18 touchdown passes and just one interception and a Passer Rating of 112.7. The pre-snap motion seemed to unlock Love’s proficiency with deep passes. And these numbers were accrued with wide receiver Christian Watson missing time in December with another injury-riddled season. The Packers’ season ended with Love throwing a bad interception in triple coverage against the 49ers which makes me still consider if the improvement on offense was more a result of LaFleur’s schematic genius or Love’s development. But it is undeniable that Green Bay ranked second in the Football Outsiders’ DVOA metrics on offense in the second half of the season. The post-Rodgers transition seems very promising. General manager Brian Gutekunst is committed to building this team from the draft after 35 picks in the last three seasons after their 11 rookies drafted in April. This “Green and Growing” approach resulted in only five players added via free agency in the offseason. The fruits of this labor are evident. When LaFleur laments the media’s focus on “who is the number one receiver” narratives, the Packers have a deep set of young wide receivers with a diverse skill set that plays right into the play-calling LaFleur seems to have chomping on the bit to execute since calling ill-advised fourth-and-goal plays as the OC for Tennessee years ago. Getting Watson healthy for an entire season only expands the possibilities. Gutekunst got younger at running back by releasing Aaron Jones and signing Josh Jacobs who should unleash more play-action pass possibilities. LaFleur also dismissed defensive coordinator Joe Barry in an addition-by-subtraction move in the offseason and hired a veteran NFL secondary coach in Jeff Hafley who had been the head coach at Boston College. Hafley’s aggressive tactics and 4-3 schemes may be a better fit for his personnel. If edge rusher Rashon Gary and cornerback Jaire Alexander can regain their previous form after down seasons, the Packers defense could take a big step up. Their defensive line is the unit’s strength with plenty of depth.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS: There are wildly different opinions regarding the state of this organization — and most of the disagreement starts with the evaluation of general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah’s first two years running the football operations. Coming off a 13-4 regular season, did Adofo-Mensah blow the Vikings’ opportunity to win the NFC North last year by not resigning running back Dalvin Cook? Minnesota only generated seven rushing touchdowns last year. And he is making this worse by not resigning veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins in the offseason. Or, did Adofo-Mensah wisely not take the bait from that 13-4 campaign that ended with a seven-point loss at home to the New York Giants after a regular season where they got outscored and outgained? Despite a 7-10 campaign last year with Cousins missing nine games to injury and superstar wide receiver Justin Jefferson out seven games to injury, the Vikings only got outscored by 18 points over the entire season, just a 15 net difference in points from the previous year (and the 13-4 regular season mark). Adofo-Mensah began his tenure embracing a “competitive rebuild.” Resigning Jefferson for another four years while letting someone else take the chance to pay tons of money for an aging quarterback coming off a torn ACL seems pretty wise to me. And seemingly keeping to the script for this franchise, they selected J.J. McCarthy in the first round of the NFL draft who drew as divisive of pre-draft coverage as I have ever seen. I might have watched every snap McCarthy took under center for Michigan in his career. He is not a perfect prospect, and I think I have a good sense of what his challenges will be in becoming a good professional quarterback. But an entire book can be written about either uninformed or simply inaccurate assessments made about him by the “professional” or cottage industry draft experts. The 21-year-old ran a 4.48 seconds time in the 40-yard dash. That’s fast, and I won’t comment on why many observers conclude his mobility is “average.” And with one set of pundits who I have great respect for their insight on the NFL, they made the hasty generalization that McCarthy was the beneficiary of the Wolverines’ great ground game that set him up for pass-action success. That’s simply not how the Michigan offense operated last year. Check the fan boards complaining about the lack of play-action with the hope that those plays would be unleashed in the Ohio State and then Alabama showdowns. In fact, too often McCarthy bailed the offense out on third-and-long with his arm or his legs after two successive running plays from a ground game not as effective as it was the year before. None of this is to say that McCarthy will have a great professional career — even before what he can potentially do as a rookie. But the Adofe-Mensah haters have plenty of ammunition to continue to hate. I’m kinda bullish of what McCarthy can do under head coach Kevin O’Connell’s guidance with weapons like Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockensen (and McCarthy knows how to use tight ends). The analytics suggested Minnesota was an eight-win team two years ago (their Pythagorean win tally was 8.4) — and they only dropped to 8.0 Pythagorean wins last year. The running back room should be better with Aaron Jones who averaged 4.6 Yards-Per-Carry last season and thrives when the QB is under center. Defensive coordinator Brian Flores oversaw a unit that improved from 31st in the league in total defense to 16th by allowing only 333.2 total Yards-Per-Game. While Flores is aggressive, he also disguises and misdirects his schemes — and he is great at tailoring his game plans to the talent of his players. While this team is unlikely to replicate the 13-4 record from two seasons ago, this might very well be the best overall team under the O’Connell and Adofo-Mensah regime in their three seasons on the job.
NEW YORK GIANTS: It was a fateful January afternoon when the Giants visited Minnesota to play the Vikings in the Wildcard Round of the playoffs two seasons ago. Both teams had significantly overperformed their underlying analytics — most notably, both teams got outscored and outgained in yardage in the regular season. New York pulled off the upset to advance to the NFC Divisional Round. In the offseason, the Vikings management treated their roster as one that more resembled a .500 team than one that won 13 games in the regular season. They released running back Dalvin Cook rather than sign him to an expensive contract. They did not extend quarterback Kirk Cousins’ contract. The Giants, on the other hand, ignored the 38-7 shellacking they received the next week at Philadelphia and behaved as if they had a roster ready to take the next step rather than being fortunate even to make the playoffs and then face another pretender. General manager Joe Schoen gave quarterback Daniel Jones a new four-year $160 million deal. He resigned running back Saquon Barkley at a base of $10.1 million. New York kicked off their season with a confidence that was quickly shattered in a humiliating 40-0 loss in Dallas. Jones was sacked eight times by a disastrous offensive line that would go on to allow 85 sacks on the year, the second most in NFL history since they began tracking that stat in 1982. Jones got sacked 28 times in five games before going down with a knock injury. When he returned later in the season, he tore his ACL in the second quarter against Las Vegas. The Giants closed the season with a 6-11 record. As Minnesota drafted their hopeful next franchise quarterback as they continue to rebuild, head coach Brian Daboll along with Shoen and Jones are all on the hot seat in a make-it-or-break-it year. Daboll has reshuffled his coaching staff headlined by new defensive coordinator Shane Bowen. But he hired the previous “bums” — and former defensive coordinator Don Martindale had a good reputation in the league. Daboll is a screamer on the headset during the games — an act that wears thin. Martindale’s defenses are blitz-happy — but that also protected a young secondary and helped New York tie for NFL-lead with 31 takeaways (all after Week Four). Injuries played a big role — so the offensive line could improve if they stay healthy. Jones regressed after an encouraging first year under Daboll — but better protection could get him back to his 2022-23 form. Barkley was not resigned with the offense turning to a running back by committee approach. After ranking last in Explosive Plays, LSU wide receiver Malik Nabers was drafted in the first round. But I have to go back to Schoen and his decision-making. His first two drafts have resulted in far too many misses: first-round pick right tackle Evan Deal, third-round wide receiver picks WanDale Robinson and Jalen Hyatt. He continues to sign retread after retread in free agency. Just on the offensive line, after adding four free agents and drafting two rookies in the first three rounds in his first draft in 2022, he signed another five free agents this offseason — but did not draft an offensive lineman. Perhaps Schoen knows he no longer has the time to wait on a rookie to develop after all six of his acquisitions in his first year have all seemed to flop (only his two draft picks remain on the team)? A healthy and improved offensive line could help Jones — and adding Nabors may finally address the gaping hole at WR1. But with Daboll’s leadership skills now in question, it will not seem like it will take much for this organization to implode, yet again. And that would put them at least three years behind that Vikings team they upset in early 2022.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: My biggest concern about last year’s Eagles team was their defense being overrated after ranking second in total yards allowed. Their Super Bowl run involved some luck regarding quarterback injuries that complemented a soft schedule — and they lost five defensive starters from that group. Sure enough, Philly’s defense imploded last season; They ranked 30th in the league by allowing 25.2 Points-Per-Game — and the Football Outsiders’ DVOA metrics ranked their defense 29th in the NFL. The main culprit was their pass defense that ranked second-to-last by allowing 252.7 passing Yards-Per-Game and surrendering 31 touchdown passes. A pass rush that registered 70 sacks in their Super Bowl run only managed 43 sacks last year. General manager Howie Roseman addressed the secondary in the NFL draft and resigned safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson from Detroit. But defensive tackle Fletcher Cox returned and linebacker Hassan Reddick. The once lauded Georgia Defense North including recent Bulldogs’ draft picks nose tackle Jordan Davis, defensive tackle Jalen Carter, and linebackers Nakobe Dean and Nolan Smith, Jr. have all been disappointments — it needs to be considered that perhaps they are overachieving products a college defensive unit loaded with talent. And this is all before we get to the dumpster fire end of the season when the team quit in an embarrassing 32-9 loss at Tampa Bay in the NFC Wildcard playoff round to culminate in losing six of their final seven games. Fourth-year head coach Nick Sirianni is clearly on the hot seat after overseeing that mess. He cleaned house by firing the coordinators on both sides of the ball — but he hired the bums in the first place! In hindsight, perhaps the true brain power behind their Super Bowl run in 2022-23 was offensive coordinator Shane Steichen and defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon who are now the head coaches of Indianapolis and Arizona respectively. Now after tapping two relatively inexperienced coordinators last year, Sirianni turned to former Dallas offensive coordinator Kellen Moore and former Denver head coach and big personality Vic Fangio as his defensive coordinator. Both hires are high-risk, high-reward. The conceptual fit with Moore in the RPO offense designed for quarterback Jalen Hurts may be troublesome. Moore loves to use motion — but the Eagles' offense has been static to allow for simpler decisions for Hurts: run the ball when the box is light, pass the ball if wide receivers A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith encounter thin coverage. Opposing defenses may have caught up to Hurts last season as they found success goading him into ill-advised passes that did not match the situation and abandoned their elite offensive line. His 15 interceptions last season was a career-high. While the offense needs a schematic rethink, Hurts may not be the ideal QB to effectively execute a motion-heavy offense that muddies the picture he is seeing. And, by the way, how much will the retirement of center Jason Kelce impact the offensive line? Was he the cheat code that made the “Brotherly Shove” so much more effective than the other copycats in the league? The defense also undergoes a schematic change with Fangio implementing his patented two-high shell safety system that he had so much success with in his long career as a defensive coordinator. His one-year tenure in Miami as their defensive coordinator was rocky. Sirianni was already bullied by “special assistant” Matt Patricia into relieving Sean Desai of his playing calling duties late last season (no surprise: the defense did not improve when Patricia attempted to install his new system post-Thanksgiving). Maybe the hires will reap immediate improvements on both sides of the ball. Maybe going young at cornerback and making a big splash by signing running back Saquon Barkley as a free agent gives the attack one more weapon to make it nearly unstoppable. Maybe the Georgia contingent sees the light turn on and take significant steps to meet their vast potential. But hiring two new coordinators is turbulent — and to be doing it in the second year in a row is even more tumultuous. And this time around, Sirianni hired two coaches who either could replace him later in the season if things do not turn around.
WASHINGTON COMMANDERS: The Commanders dropped from 8-8-1 to 4-13 last season in what quickly became a lame-duck season for head coach Ron Rivera and general manager Martin Mayhew. After the team traded away defensive ends Montez Sweat and Chase Young at the trade deadline, the writing was on the wall and the remaining players were listless in some blowout losses. So the Washington defense ranking last by allowing 30.5 Points-Per-Game, 388.9 total Yards-Per-Game, and 262.2 Passing YPG should probably be taken with a grain of salt. We are now more than a year into the Brave New World under new owner Josh Harris who has replaced the toxic environment under Dan Snyder with new variations of embracing “the process” that has brought so many NBA Finals appearances for the Philadelphia 76ers under his leadership. Former Dallas defensive coordinator Dan Quinn is the head coach (after Detroit offensive coordinator Ben Johnson turned the job down after complaining about too many NBA folks involved in football decisions). Quinn took the Atlanta Falcons to the Super Bowl before watching his offensive coordinator, Kyle Shanahan, game-management his way to helping Tom Brady orchestrate New England’s 28-3 comeback victory. He hired Kliff Kingsbury as his offensive coordinator to help the former college head coach of Patrick Mahomes continue his failing upward career trajectory. Kingsbury has been in the same room with some talented quarterbacks — but now his challenge is to help Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels succeed behind a refurbished offensive line that allowed Sam Howell to get sacked a league-leading 65 times last year. Daniels is thin and took too many hits last year — if his breakout senior season was a product of great talent at wide receiver at LSU, it could be a long season for the Commanders. On the other hand, Daniels is a legitimate dual-threat QB who could jumpstart this offense like C.J. Stroud last year. Quinn is a proven defensive wizard with elite defenses in Seattle before the Falcons and Cowboys — so even an upgrade to the middle of the pack would do wonders for this team.
Best of luck -- Frank.
