by Hollywood Sports
Saturday, Sep 30, 2023For the 13th straight summer, I invested time researching each NFL team to serve as the foundation for my handicapping in the fall and winter. What initially began as basic notetaking on some fundamental details for each team has become an arduous and detailed process for each team that derives from the reading and studying of multiple sources. Each NFL team takes about an hour to 90 minutes of preparation time.
To help document this work while crystallizing my thoughts for each team, I am providing a summary of each team highlighted by a critical question that will go a long way in their success or failure. Here are my NFC teams (and I will add more of the writeups as the weeks move on).
ATLANTA FALCONS: The Falcons were finally released from salary cap jail — and general manager Terry Fontenot spent almost $180 million on 17 new players to the roster. However, I am not sure all that money was “spending for spending’s sake” now that the financial shackles were off versus a serious fortification of the roster. The Jessie Bates III signing at safety as he enters his seventh season seems sound, but the remaining pickups fall into the Aging Veteran or Underachieving Second-Chancer categories. Particularly on defense, did all that money just re-arrange the chairs on a sinking Titanic ship that ranked 27th in the league by allowing 362.1 Yards-Per-Game — and those numbers may be modest when considering head coach Arthur Smith’s ball control offensive attack. Atlanta has endured five straight losing seasons after their 7-10 mark last year — and it’s possible that Smith’s coaching made relative chicken salad out of what may be a really bad roster. The defensive line, linebackers, pass protection on the offensive line, and the wide receiver room all appear lacking. The Falcons got outgained by -42.5 net Yards-Per-Game — but after -3 net close losses by one scoring possession, they were only outscored by -1.2 Points-Per-Game. They drafted running back Bijan Robinson with the eighth pick in the first round of the April NFL draft in an area not of need. Perhaps he is a generational talent that could not be passed up — but similar arguments were made about tight end Kyle Pitts who was drafted with the fourth pick in the first round in 2022 and has caught three touchdown passes in his albeit injury-shortened career (amongst 96 career receptions). Desmond Ridder gets the opportunity to lead the offense in his second year after going 2-2 as a starter in his rookie season. The former third-round pick from Cincinnati has questions regarding his arm strength and the ceiling of his overall talent.
CAROLINA PANTHERS: The Panthers played pretty well under interim head coach Steve Wilks last season — is that a sign of things to come or simply a dead cat bounce from the ending of the Matt Rhule tenure? Carolina posted an 11-27 record in the two-plus seasons under Rhule — but they closed out the season with a 6-6 record under Wilks last year to finish the year with a 7-10 record. All five starters on the offensive line are back on an underrated unit. But the team lost important pieces on offense when they traded wide receiver D.J. Moore to Chicago in their acquisition of the first pick in the NFL draft which they used to select quarterback Bryce Young. They did not resign running back D’Onta Foreman despite all he does is overachieve when given the opportunity with the football. The Panthers did take a chance on Philadelphia running back Miles Sanders in free agency — but the future of the offense lies in Young and new head coach Frank Reich’s ability to steward the 5’10 QB in the league.
CHICAGO BEARS: How much of Justin Fields’ slow development is on him — and how much of it is on the lack of support around him? His vision down the field and accuracy on his throw remain works in progress. He holds on to the ball too long — his 3.12 seconds-per-throw was the fourth-highest in the NFL. But the Bears might have had the least dynamic wide-receiving units in the league. And the offensive line was a sieve — 38 of the 58 sacks they gave up (fourth most in the NFL) came against just three or four rushers who were able to generate pressure 38.3% of the time (highest in the NFL). Patrick Mahomes would likely struggle with that set of receivers when defenses are content to play eight seven or eight defenders in pass coverage who are still applying pressure two times every five plays. Acquiring wide receiver D.J. Moore was an essential piece in trading away the first pick in the NFL draft to Carolina — and general manager Ryan Poles drafted right tackle Darnell Wright with one of his first-round picks to address the offensive line.
DALLAS COWBOYS: Head coach Mike McCarthy takes over the play-calling for the now-departed offensive coordinator Kellen Moore — but does the offense have the talent to successfully run the ball more and transition to a more conventional West Coast offense? I simply don’t know if moving on from Moore will help or hurt this offense (I suspect help, but I have don’t a strong opinion — and we will have much more information to evaluate that question as this season moves forward). Perhaps getting the ball out quicker will help establish Michael Gallup and Brandin Cooks as the reliable secondary options to wide receiver CeeDee Lamb that this offense has lacked. Can Tony Pollard handle lead running back responsibilities with the team not resigning Ezekiel Elliott — and who will inherit Elliott’s elite pass-blocking and short-yardage running skills?
DETROIT LIONS: Is this a franchise that is treating their lame-duck upset victory at Lambeau Field against the Green Bay Packers in the final regular season game of the season as an indication that they are just a player or two away from a deep playoff run? While the league is moving away from investing heavily in running backs and linebackers, the Lions signed David Montgomery to a three-year $18 million deal in the offseason and then drafted a running back with the 12th pick in the first round of the NFL draft. They then drafted a linebacker at the 18th pick in the first round despite other past first-rounders at that position not getting the option taken on the fifth year of their rookie contract. This is a team that outgained in yardage last season after Carolina put up 570 total yards against them in Week 15 in a 37-23 loss that ultimately kept them out of the postseason. With all the hype around a franchise that has not won a playoff game since 1991, what happens if they get off to another slow start?
GREEN BAY PACKERS: Will the Packers respond similarly as the Seattle Seahawks did last year once their long-time franchise quarterback was granted his trade request? The Seahawk players seemed happy to see Russell Wilson leave — and perhaps the Packer players were pleased to tell Aaron Rodgers to not let the door hit him as he left for New York. While head coach Matt LaFleur is on the hot seat in his fifth year with the team, he gets to fully implement his vision of the offense without catering to the whims of Rodgers. And with Jordan Love, he may have the type of player that Kyle Shanahan was hoping to unlock with Trey Lance: a point guard-styled quarterback who offers the additional weapon with his mobility.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: Is general manager Mickey Loomis simply in denial regarding the impending salary cap disaster awaiting this organization — or is he shrewdly kicking the can continually down the road? The Saints are poised to be $61.7 million in the hole versus the cap next season — and Loomis has already allocated $253 million for 2025 for what are mostly older players. They were the oldest team in the NFL last year with an average age of 27.5. But with the NFC South wide open after Tom Brady’s retirement, Loomis addressed the quarterback problem by signing Derek Carr to a four-year deal with $100 million of his $150 million contract guaranteed. With the veteran at quarterback throwing to Chris Olave and a healthy Michael Thomas along with a defense that held their final ten opponents to 14.5 PPG, the Saints are seen as the favorites to win a division consisting of three rebuilding rivals.
NEW YORK GIANTS: I think everyone understands that the Giants were incredibly fortunate to reach the Divisional Round of the NFC playoffs last year after getting outscored and outgained in yardage during the regular season. Posting an 8-4-1 record in games decided by one scoring possession got them into the playoffs — and they had an opportune first-round draw against a Minnesota team that had an even more improbable 11-0 record in games decided by one scoring possession. But last year’s good fortunes do not disqualify this team from improving the 8-9 mark that the underlying analytics grading this team out as. Daboll immediately fixed Jones’ turnover problems as the fifth-year pro threw only five interceptions — and his 1.1% interception rate was the best in the NFL for regular starting QBs. Could the team add speed, find more playmakers on offense to stretch the field, and improve their run defense? If so, then they could certainly develop into a more deserving playoff team this season. Football Outsiders’ weighted DVOA metrics ranked them as the seventh-best team in the league, for what that is worth.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: How good was the Eagles' defense actually last season? They ranked second in total defense last season by allowing only 301.5 total Yards-Per-Game — but I considered that unit overrated going into the Super Bowl which was one of the reasons we were Kansas City and the Over in that game. The Eagles benefited from a soft schedule and some fortunate breaks regarding injuries to opposing quarterbacks. They beat a 49ers team lacking a quarterback that could throw a forward pass in the second half of the NFC Championship Game. They caught Dallas without Dak Prescott for a game. They beat the New York Giants with Daniel Jones three times. The best quarterback that they may have beaten all season was Trevor Lawrence — or maybe Jared Goff — and both those games against Jacksonville and Detroit were in the first half of the season before both those teams made big second-half improvements. Now this Philly defense lost five starters in the offseason.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: The 49ers may have the best roster in the NFL but the biggest question remains: how good will their play be at the quarterback position? For those of us who handicapped every Brock Purdy game when he played in college at Iowa State, we appreciate why he was Mr. Irrelevant in the NFL draft. With 48 career starts, he has tons of experience which helps his decision-making. And because he is accurate in the short and intermediate passing game, perhaps he is a great fit for the Kyle Shanahan offense. But he lacks arm strength for a dynamic vertical passing game — and he threw too many interceptions for the Cyclones when asked to be a gunslinger. In the playoffs last season, Seattle, Dallas, and then Philadelphia exposed his tendency to bail to his left when under pressure (and it contributed to his wrist injury). The loss of right tackle Mike McGlinchey to Denver in free agency may haunt this team since ample time is an essential requirement for the Shanahan offense to purr — and Purdy holds on to the ball a little longer than Jimmy Garoppolo.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: Can Geno Smith maintain his level of play from last season? He led the NFL with a 69.8% completion percentage last year while winning the Comeback Player Of the Year Award. Arm talent was never the issue for the former West Virginia quarterback — he was the 39th pick in the 2013 NFL draft. He is more mature now — and he has clearly learned from working with Russell Wilson, Philip Rivers, and Eli Manning. Perhaps there would be more success stories like Smith’s if quarterbacks received more opportunities in the second half of their career. On the other hand, Smith did regress after his great start in his first five games last season. All 11 of his interceptions took place in his final 11 games — and the Seahawks lost six of their last nine games. Perhaps his decline in play was due to the injury issues on their offensive line. Smith did lead the NFL in completion percentage above expectation which suggests he was not simply lucky to be seeing good results.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: Is this team being too quickly dismissed by critics in their first season after Tom Brady’s retirement? The defense still has stalwarts like nose tackle Vita Vea, linebackers Devin White, Lavonte David, and Shaquille Barrett along with cornerback Carlton Davis III and safety Antoine Winfield, Jr. from their outstanding defense in their 2021 Super Bowl championship team. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin remain one of the best wide receivers in the league. The team signed the much-maligned Baker Mayfield as a free agent who has not met the expectations of being a former number-one pick in the NFL draft. But no one can question Mayfield’s toughness and he is much more popular inside the locker room than he by the media and fans. He does have a history of playing better as an underdog with a chip on his shoulder. With Brady gone and previous head coach Bruce Arians no longer making his presence felt, second-year head coach Todd Bowles has the opportunity to define this team in his image.
WASHINGTON COMMANDERS: How good can Sam Howell be for this team? While he was drafted only in the fifth round in the 2022 NFL draft, he was considered as potentially a first-round talent after his sophomore season at North Carolina in 2020. He regressed in his third season with the Tar Heels — but perhaps much of that blame should go to the graduation of his top two targets in the passing game along with two running back drafted into the NFL. Howell possesses natural leadership skills — and no one will question his arm strength. If he can improve pocket presence and decision-making, he seems capable of being a productive starter in the league.
Best of luck — Frank.
