New York Yankees vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction, Preview and Odds - 10/17/2024

Game Time: 5:08 pm ET, Thursday, October 17, 2024

Venue:  Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH

Where to Watch:  TruTV, MAX

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Guardians -115, Yankees -105; Over/Under:  7 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Guardians -115, Yankees -105; Over/Under:  7 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Guardians -115, Yankees -105; Over/Under:  7 runs

New York Yankees:  94-68 (1st place, AL East)

Cleveland Guardians:  92-69 (1st place, AL Central)

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New York Yankees:  7-3 last 10

Cleveland Guardians:  4-6 last 10

The Yankees are entering this series off a win and won their best 3 out of 5 game series against the Kansas City Royals 3-1 in the ALDS. They finished the regular season with a 94-68 record overall and had a road record of 50-31. This is the 3rd game of a best 4 out of 7 game series with the Guardians on Thursday for the ALCS. The Yankees won the series opener on Monday and the 2nd game on Tuesday. Their offense ranks 1st in the MLB with a .781 OPS. Gerrit Cole was their starting pitcher on Tuesday while Clarke Schmidt is making his start in this game on Thursday. He is 5-5 with a 2.85 ERA this season. His team won their only playoff game this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB start, he allowed 2 earned runs, 0 homers, and 1 BB with 4 strikeouts on 4 hits through 4.2 innings played against the Kansas City Royals.

The Guardians are entering this series off a win and won their best 3 out of 5 game series against the Detroit Tigers 3-2 in the American League Division Series. They finished the regular season with a 92-69 record overall and had a home record of 50-30. This is the 3rd game of a best 4 out of 7 game series with the Yankees on Thursday for the American League Championship Series. The Guardians lost the 1st game on Monday and the 2nd game on Tuesday. Their offense ranks 6th in the MLB with a .744 OPS. Tanner Bibee was their starting pitcher on Tuesday while Matthew Boyd is making his start in this game on Thursday. He is 2-2 with a 2.72 ERA this season. His team won their last playoff game this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB start, he allowed 0 ER, 0 HR, and 1 BB with 5 Ks on 1 hit through 2 IP against the Detroit Tigers.

The current betting odds have the Guardians listed as a slight underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Yankees have looked really good in their games this season with their 94-68 record overall which won them the AL East. They are also 50-31 in their road games and got through the ALDS by beating the Kansas City Royals. Meanwhile, the Guardians have also looked really good in their games this season with their 92-69 record overall which won them the AL Central. They are 50-30 in their home games and got through the ALDS by beating the Detroit Tigers. The Guardians find themselves down 2-0 in this series after losing both games in New York, but now they have 3 games in a row at home where they have been much better all season and they have a chance to turn this series around. They are going with Boyd in this one and he is 2-2 with a 2.72 ERA this season. He has looked good in his starts lately, pitching in 2 of their games against the Tigers in the last series. He didn't pitch deep into either, but he didn't give up any runs in those games and the team did win the last game he started in. The Yankees are going with Schmidt in this one and he is 5-5 with a 2.85 ERA. He has looked good in his starts this season, but he has only pitched in 1 playoff game so far. His team won that game against the Royals, but he did give up 2 earned runs in that one. He didn't pitch deep into that game either so both of these teams are going to need to rely on their bullpens late in this one, and that gives the Guardians a big edge with one of the best bullpens in the entire MLB. The Guardians are going to be desperate to get a game back in this series too and they will bring their best effort to avoid going down 3-0 at home where they have played their best baseball all year. The best way to place a bet here is on the Guardians to win this game. 

Yankees Guardians Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Thursday, October 17, 2024 (5:08 pm ET start time) is Guardians 5 Yankees 3.

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New York Yankees: 77-58 (-17.6 units) on the moneyline as a favorite of -110 or higher. 20-24 (-20.6 units) on the moneyline against left-handed starters. 55-40 (-8.1 units) on the moneyline after a win. 24-15 OVER on the road with a money line of -100 to -150. 19-11 OVER vs. a team with a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.45 or better.

Cleveland Guardians: 52-30 (+11.3 units) on the moneyline in home games. 27-14 (+12.6 units) on the moneyline at home when the money line is +125 to -125. 21-6 (+16.3 units) on the moneyline vs. a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start. 10-4 OVER as a home underdog of +100 or higher. 8-4 OVER vs. AL teams scoring 4.9 or more runs/game on the season.

New York Yankees:  L. Trivino (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. N. Cortes Jr. (RP) Undefined - Elbow. D. LeMahieu (2B) Ten Day IL - Hip. J. Brubaker (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. Loaisiga (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

Cleveland Guardians:  A. Cobb (SP) Out - Back. S. Hentges (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. T. Stephan (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. Karinchak (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. S. Bieber (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

“It was a big swing to kind of give us that cushion. The bench was pretty pumped when that happened.” - Aaron Boone after his team’s win against the Guardians in game 2 of the ALCS on Tuesday.

“We’re one swing of the bat away from taking the lead in that game. We’re one swing of the bat from being right back in it. That is who we are. We don’t quit. We just need to keep being us.” - Stephen Vogt after his team’s loss against the Yankees in game 2 of the ALCS on Tuesday.

Gleyber Torres (R) 2B

Juan Soto (L) RF

Aaron Judge (R) CF

Austin Wells (L) C

Giancarlo Stanton (R) DH

Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L) 3B

Anthony Volpe (R) SS

Anthony Rizzo (L) 1B

Alex Verdugo (L) LF

Steven Kwan (L) LF

Kyle Manzardo (L) DH

José Ramírez (S) 3B

Josh Naylor (L) 1B

Lane Thomas (R) CF

Will Brennan (L) RF

Andrés Giménez (L) 2B

Bo Naylor (L) C

Brayan Rocchio (S) SS

Batting Average:  Taylor Trammell (1.000)

Hits:  Aaron Judge (180)

Home Runs:  Aaron Judge (58)

RBI:  Aaron Judge (144)

Stolen Bases:  Anthony Volpe (28)

Wins:  Carlos Rodón (16)

Saves:  Clay Holmes (30)

ERA:  Jonathan Loáisiga (0.00)

Batting Average:  Steven Kwan (.292)

Hits:  José Ramírez (173)

Home Runs:  José Ramírez (39)

RBI:  José Ramírez (118)

Stolen Bases:  José Ramírez (41)

Wins:  Ben Lively (13)

Saves:  Emmanuel Clase (47)

ERA:  Shane Bieber (0.00)

Managers:

New York Yankees: Aaron Boone (7th season)

Cleveland Guardians: Stephen Vogt (1st season)