New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/28/2024

by Rod Pearson

Saturday, Jul 27, 2024
Game Time: 7:10 pm ET, Sunday, July 28, 2024
Venue:  Fenway Park, Boston, MA 
Where to Watch:  ESPN


Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Yankees -108, Red Sox -112; Over/Under:  9.5 runs
Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Yankees -105, Red Sox -115; Over/Under:  9.5 runs
BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Yankees -110, Red Sox -110; Over/Under:  9.5 runs

Season Record

New York Yankees:  60-45 (2nd place, AL East)
Boston Red Sox:  55-47 (3rd place, AL East)

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Recent Form
New York Yankees:  4-6 last 10
Boston Red Sox:  4-6 last 10



New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox Preview and Analysis


The Yankees are entering this series off a loss and got swept in their 2-game series against the New York Mets 2-0 in their last series. They enter this game with a 60-45 record overall and have a road record of 33-22. This is the series finale of a 3-game series with the Red Sox on Sunday with the 2nd game of this series still to be played on Saturday. The Yankees lost the series opener of this series on Friday. Their offense ranks 3rd in the MLB with a .760 OPS. Marcus Stroman is their starting pitcher on Saturday while Carlos Rodón is making his start in this game on Sunday. He is 10-7 with a 4.42 ERA this season. His team lost 6 of their last 7 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 1 ER, 1 HR, and 2 BB with 10 Ks on 2 hits through 7 IP against the Tampa Bay Rays.

The Red Sox are entering this series off a loss and lost their 3-game series against the Colorado Rockies 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 55-47 record overall and have a home record of 25-25. This is the 3rd game of a 3-game series with the Yankees on Sunday with the 2nd game of this series still to be played on Saturday. The Red Sox won the 1st game of this series on Friday. Their offense ranks 4th in the MLB with a .758 OPS. Kutter Crawford is their starting pitcher on Saturday while Tanner Houck is making his start in this game on Sunday. He is 8-6 with a 2.71 ERA this season. His team won 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 4 earned runs, 2 homers, and 3 BB with 2 strikeouts on 10 hits through 6 innings played against the Colorado Rockies.


Yankees vs Red Sox Prediction

The current betting odds have the Red Sox listed as a slight favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Red Sox have looked good in their games this season with their 55-47 record overall which has them in 3rd place of the AL East and fighting for a Wild Card spot. They have looked worse in their home games this year with their 25-25 home record. Meanwhile, the Yankees have looked great in their games this season with their 60-45 record overall which has them in 2nd place of the AL East with one of the best records in the entire MLB, but they have looked terrible in their games lately and now have the Red Sox right on their tail in the division. The Red Sox won the 1st game of this series against the Yankees in a high scoring game too, but their pitching will be better in this one. The Red Sox are going with Houck in this one and he is 8-6 with a 2.71 ERA. He did give up 4 earned runs in his last start, but that has been a rare occurrence for him this season, and the team has also won 2 of their last 3 games with him starting. Houck will be looking to bounce back at home here and he has a really hot offense to help him out if he does get into any trouble. The Yankees are going with Rodon in this one and he is 10-7 with a 4.42 ERA. He looked great at the start of the season, but lately he has been giving up a lot more runs. He only gave up 1 earned run in his last start, but the team has had no success with him lately, losing 6 of the last 7 games he started in. The Red Sox are creeping closer and closer to the Yankees in the AL East and the Yankees have struggled against the Red Sox a lot this season, this is a game that Boston can take advantage of the pitching matchup in. The best way to place a bet here is on the Red Sox to win this game.

Yankees Red Sox Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Sunday, July 28, 2024 (7:10 pm ET start time) is Red Sox 5 Yankees 4.
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MLB Betting Trends


New York Yankees: 34-22 (+6.80 units) on the moneyline in their last 56 away games. 40-32 (+13.80 units) on the runline in their last 72 games. 34-20 to the over in their last 54 games.

Boston Red Sox: 25-26 (-7.40 units) on the moneyline in their last 51 home games. 40-53 (-21.60 units) on the runline in their last 93 games. 32-22 to the over in their last 54 games. 

Key Injuries


New York Yankees:  J. Trevino (C) Late July - Quadricep. L. Trivino (RP) Late July - Elbow. N. Burdi (RP) Mid June - Hip. G. Stanton (DH) Out indefinitely - Hamstring. A. Rizzo (1B) Out indefinitely - Arm. C. Schmidt (SP) Out indefinitely - Lower Body. C. Poteet (SP) Early July - Tricep. I. Hamilton (RP) Mid July - Back. J. Berti (SS) Out indefinitely - Calf. J. Brubaker (SP) Out indefinitely - Elbow. J. Loaisiga (RP) out for season - Elbow.

Boston Red Sox:  J. Slaten (RP) Out indefinitely - Elbow. C. Martin (RP) Out indefinitely - Elbow. L. Hendriks (RP) Early August - Elbow. G. Whitlock (RP) Out indefinitely - Oblique. C. Murphy (RP) out for season - Elbow. B. Mata (SP) Out indefinitely - Hamstring. V. Grissom (2B) Out indefinitely - Hamstring. L. Giolito (SP) out for season - Elbow. T. Casas (3B) Out indefinitely - Ribs. T. Story (2B) out for season - Shoulder.


Notable Quotes


“Look, that's a game you're trying to close out, obviously you're in a tough spot. Tough spot for Clay to come in there.” - Aaron Boone after his team’s loss against the Red Sox in their game on Friday.


“The big boy, he is amazing, man. I haven't seen a guy hit a ball there since ‘07. That was impressive, but our guys kept battling.” - Alex Cora after his team’s win against the Yankees in their game on Friday.


Starting Lineups


New York Yankees
A Verdugo (L) RF
J Soto (L) LF
A Judge (R) DH
A Wells (L) C
G Torres (R) 2B
B Rice (L) 1B
A Volpe (R) SS
T Grisham (L) CF
O Cabrera (S) 3B

Boston Red Sox
J Duran (L) CF
R Refsnyder (R) LF
C Wong (R) C
R Devers (L) 3B
T O'Neill (R) RF
M Yoshida (L) DH
R Gonzalez (R) 1B
C Rafaela (R) SS
J Westbrook (R) 2B

Statistical Leaders


New York Yankees
Batting Average:  Taylor Trammell (1.000)
Hits:  Juan Soto (114)
Home Runs:  Aaron Judge (36)
RBI:  Aaron Judge (92)
Stolen Bases:  Anthony Volpe (18)
Wins:  Luis Gil (10)
Saves:  Clay Holmes (21)
ERA:  Jonathan Loáisiga (0.00)

Boston Red Sox
Batting Average:  Rob Refsnyder (.311)
Hits:  Jarren Duran (125)
Home Runs:  Rafael Devers (23)
RBI:  Rafael Devers (64)
Stolen Bases:  David Hamilton (25)
Wins:  Brayan Bello (10)
Saves:  Kenley Jansen (20)
ERA:  Garrett Whitlock (1.96)

Managers:
New York Yankees: Aaron Boone (7th season)
Boston Red Sox: Álex Cora (4th season)


Rod Pearson

About the Author:

Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life.  He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years.  In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective.  Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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