by Rod Pearson
Saturday, Oct 12, 2024
Game Time: 8:15 pm ET, Sunday, October 13, 2024
Venue: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
Where to Watch: FOX
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Moneyline odds: Mets +136, Dodgers -162; Over/Under: 8 runs
Bet365: Moneyline odds: Mets +135, Dodgers -160; Over/Under: 8 runs
BetMGM: Moneyline odds: Mets +135, Dodgers -160; Over/Under: 8 runs
Season Record
New York Mets: 89-73 (3rd place, NL East)
Los Angeles Dodgers: 98-64 (1st place, NL West)
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Recent Form
New York Mets: 7-3 last 10
Los Angeles Dodgers: 8-2 last 10
New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers Preview and Analysis
The Mets are entering this series off a win and won their best 3 out of 5 game series against the Philadelphia Phillies 3-1 in the National League Division Series. They finished the regular season with an 89-73 record overall and had a road record of 43-38. This is the series opener of a best 4 out of 7 game series with the Dodgers on Sunday for the National League Championship Series. Their offense ranks 6th in the MLB with a .744 OPS. José Quintana was their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Kodai Senga is making his start in this game on Sunday. He is 1-0 with a 3.38 ERA this season. His team won their only playoff game this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB start, he allowed 1 ER, 1 HR, and 1 BB with 3 Ks on 1 hit through 2 IP against the Philadelphia Phillies.
The Dodgers are entering this series off a win and won their best 3 out of 5 game series against the San Diego Padres 3-2 in the NLDS. They finished the regular season with a 98-64 record overall and had a home record of 52-29. This is the 1st game of a best 4 out of 7 game series with the Mets on Sunday for the NLCS. Their offense ranks 1st in the MLB with a .781 OPS. Rookie pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto was their starting pitcher on Friday while Jack Flaherty is making his start in this game on Sunday. He is 13-7 with a 3.17 ERA this season. His team lost their only playoff game this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB start, he allowed 4 earned runs, 2 homers, and 1 BB with 2 strikeouts on 5 hits through 5.1 innings played against the San Diego Padres.
Mets vs Dodgers Prediction
The current betting odds have the Mets listed as an underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Mets have looked good in their games this season with their 89-73 record overall which got them into the playoffs through the Wild Card. They kicked the Brewers out in the Wild Card Series and they kicked the Phillies out of the NLDS. They have also been good in their road games this season with their 43-38 road record. Meanwhile, the Dodgers have looked great in their games this season with their 98-64 record overall which won the NL West with the best record in the entire MLB. They have also looked great in their home games with their 52-29 home record. They just kicked the Padres out of the NLDS and they will have home advantage in this series. Their offense has looked great in the playoffs and all season, but their pitching has been really up and down. The Mets have also had a really good offense in these playoffs and they have had some good pitching too. Senga is on the mound for the Mets and he is 1-0 with a 3.38 ERA. He pitched well in his 1 playoff start, giving up 1 earned run in a game his team won. The Dodgers will have Flaherty on the mound here and he is 13-7 with a 3.17 ERA, but he hasn't looked great in his starts lately. He was struggling in his starts near the end of the season and he also gave up 4 earned runs in his only playoff start this year. The Dodgers lost that game too and the Mets are going to bring their best effort in this first game to try and flip the home advantage by splitting these games. The best way to place a bet here is on the Mets to win this game.
Mets Dodgers Prediction: Our MLB Pick for Sunday, October 13, 2024 (8:15 pm ET start time) is Mets 6 Dodgers 3.
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MLB Betting Trends
New York Mets: 94-74 (+16.1 units) on the moneyline in all games. 46-40 (+10.6 units) on the moneyline in road games. 14-6 (+13.4 units) on the moneyline as a road underdog of +125 to +175. 16-4 OVER as a road underdog of +125 to +175. 6-3 OVER vs. a team slugging percentage of .430 or better on the season (NL). 26-19 OVER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%).
Los Angeles Dodgers: 53-30 (-5.2 units) on the moneyline in home games. 55-31 (-9.2 units) on the moneyline as a favorite of -150 or more. 65-49 (-9.3 units) on the moneyline against right-handed starters. 46-27 OVER as a home favorite of -110 or higher. 31-19 OVER at home when the total is 8 to 8.5. 49-28 OVER vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse.
Key Injuries
New York Mets: P. Blackburn (RP) Sixty Day IL - Hand. C. Scott (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. D. Nunez (SP) Undefined - Forearm. J. McNeil (2B) Out - Wrist. S. Reid-Foley (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. K. Senga (SP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. D. Smith (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. B. Raley (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. R. Mauricio (SS) Sixty Day IL - Knee.
Los Angeles Dodgers: K. Kiermaier (CF) Out - Finger. M. Grove (SP) Out - Shoulder. J. Kelly (RP) Out - Shoulder. C. Kershaw (SP) Out - Toe. B. Honeywell Jr. (SP) Undefined - Finger. B. Graterol (RP) Ten Day IL - Shoulder. G. Stone (SP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. T. Glasnow (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. R. Ryan (SP) Sixty Day IL - Forearm. D. May (SP) Out - Elbow. E. Sheehan (SP) Out - Elbow. T. Gonsolin (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. C. Brogdon (RP) Sixty Day IL - Foot.
Notable Quotes
“Got runners on and we couldn’t come up with a big hit until finally, who else? The MVP. I keep saying you could write a book. You could make a movie, because this is it right here." - Carlos Mendoza after his team’s win against the Phillies in game 4 of the National League Division Series on Wednesday.
"We’re ready for the next level.” - Dave Roberts after his team’s win against the Padres in game 5 of the NLDS on Friday.
Starting Lineups
New York Mets
Francisco Lindor (S) SS
Mark Vientos (R) 3B
Brandon Nimmo (L) LF
Pete Alonso (R) 1B
Jose Iglesias (R) 2B
J.D. Martinez (R) DH
Starling Marte (R) RF
Tyrone Taylor (R) CF
Francisco Alvarez (R) C
Los Angeles Dodgers
Shohei Ohtani (L) DH
Mookie Betts (R) RF
Freddie Freeman (L) 1B
Teoscar Hernández (R) LF
Max Muncy (L) 3B
Will Smith (R) C
Enrique Hernández (R) CF
Gavin Lux (L) 2B
Tommy Edman (S) SS
Statistical Leaders
New York Mets
Batting Average: Jose Iglesias (.337)
Hits: Francisco Lindor (169)
Home Runs: Pete Alonso (34)
RBI: Francisco Lindor (91)
Stolen Bases: Francisco Lindor (29)
Wins: Sean Manaea (12)
Saves: Edwin Díaz (20)
ERA: Brooks Raley (0.00)
Los Angeles Dodgers
Batting Average: Hunter Feduccia (.333)
Hits: Shohei Ohtani (197)
Home Runs: Shohei Ohtani (54)
RBI: Shohei Ohtani (130)
Stolen Bases: Shohei Ohtani (59)
Wins: Gavin Stone (11)
Saves: Evan Phillips (18)
ERA: Eduardo Salazar (0.00)
Managers:
New York Mets: Carlos Mendoza (1st season)
Los Angeles Dodgers: Dave Roberts (9th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
