by Rod Pearson
Friday, Jan 03, 2025
Game Time: 1:00 pm ET, Sunday, January 5, 2025
Venue: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
Where to Watch: FOX
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Saints +14, Buccaneers -14; Over/Under: 43.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Saints +13.5, Buccaneers -13.5; Over/Under: 43.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Saints +13.5, Buccaneers -13.5; Over/Under: 43.5 points
Season Record
New Orleans Saints: 5-11 (3rd place, NFC South)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 9-7 (1st place, NFC South)
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Recent Form
New Orleans Saints: lost their last game at home against the Las Vegas Raiders 25-10.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: won their last game at home against the Carolina Panthers 48-14.
New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Preview and Analysis
The Saints are entering this game with a 5-11 record overall and they have a 2-3 record in their divisional games too. They are 3-6 in their home games, 2-5 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against the Las Vegas Raiders 25-10. Spencer Rattler was the starting QB and he completed 20/36 passes for 218 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions. Spencer Rattler led the team in rushing yards with 46. Juwan Johnson led the receivers with 66 receiving yards on 6 receptions. Pete Werner led the defense in that game with 7 solo tackles and 6 assisted tackles while Cameron Jordan led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
The Buccaneers are entering this game with a 9-7 record overall and they have a 3-2 record in their divisional games too. They are 4-4 in their home games, 5-3 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against the Carolina Panthers 48-14. Baker Mayfield was the starting QB and he completed 27/32 passes for 359 passing yards, 5 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Bucky Irving led the team in rushing yards with 113. Mike Evans led the receivers with 97 receiving yards on 8 receptions and 2 TDs. Zyon McCollum led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 1 assisted tackle while YaYa Diaby, Logan Hall, Anthony Nelson, Calijah Kancey, and Chris Braswell each led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
Saints vs Buccaneers Prediction
The current betting odds have the Buccaneers listed as a 14 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Buccaneers have looked good in their games this season with their 9-7 record overall which leads the NFC South. They are coming off a huge win over the Panthers last week and after seeing the Falcons lose to the Commanders on Sunday night, the Bucs now have complete control of their own destiny. All they need to do to win the division is to win this game so expect them to bring their best effort here. Meanwhile, the Saints have looked terrible in their games this season with their 5-11 record overall which has them in 3rd place of the NFC South and eliminated from playoff contention. Their season has been over for a few weeks now and they have also been dealing with a lot of injuries to their starters so they really have nothing to play for here except spoiler. The Saints would love to keep the Bucs from making the playoffs, but this is going to be a lot tougher on the road than in their first meeting. The Bucs also got a taste of Rattler already in that first meeting and that game ended in a 51-27 road win for the Buccaneers. The Buccaneers are going to be motivated to clinch their playoff spot here and stay hot going into the Wild Card Round. The best way to place a bet here is on the Buccaneers to cover the spread in this game.
Saints Buccaneers Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Sunday, January 5, 2025 (1:00 pm ET start time) is Buccaneers 45 Saints 24.
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NFL Betting Trends
New Orleans Saints: 19-30 ATS in all games. 8-15 ATS in road games. 8-16 ATS in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points. 5-9 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record. 31-19 UNDER in all games. 16-8 UNDER in road games. 10-2 UNDER revenging a loss against an opponent. 8-2 UNDER after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 4-2 ATS off 3 or more consecutive overs. 7-4 1H ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game. 18-10 UNDER as a favorite. 9-5 UNDER in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points. 7-4 UNDER after allowing 14 points or less last game.
Key Injuries
New Orleans Saints: R. Payton (CB) Questionable - Illness. L. Patrick (OL) Out - Knee. A. Kamara (RB) Out - Groin. D. Carr (QB) Out - Hand. M. Valdes-Scantling (WR) Questionable - Chest. N. Shepherd (DT) Questionable - Eye. P. Turner (DE) Injured - Ankle. J. Johnson (TE) Injured - Foot. E. McCoy (C) Out - Elbow. C. Olave (WR) Questionable - Head.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: L. David (LB) Injured - NIR-Rest. J. Dean (CB) Injured - Knee. G. Barton (C) Injured - Illness. S. Shepard (WR) Out - Hamstring. W. Gholston (DL) Injured - Knee. M. Evans (WR) Injured - Rest. J. Whitehead (SAF) Questionable - Pectoral. K. Britt (LB) Questionable - Ankle. M. Edwards (SAF) Injured - Illness. T. Wirfs (T) Injured - Foot/Knee. A. Winfield (SAF) Out - Knee. C. Otton (TE) Out - Knee. K. Merriweather (SAF) Injured - Knee. L. Hall (DL) Injured - Shoulder. K. Johnson (WR) Questionable - Ankle. C. Izien (SAF) Injured - Pectoral.
Notable Quotes
“I felt like Spencer really never got settled in there, and he was moving around. And he made some plays moving around, to his credit.” - Darren Rizzi after his team’s loss against the Raiders in their last game.
“He really played a heck of a ball game intelligently. We didn't turn it over offensively. We were very good on third down. He controlled the ball, spread it around, got everybody touches.” - Todd Bowles after his team’s win against the Panthers in their last game.
Starting Lineups
New Orleans Saints
WR Austin Jr., Kevin
WR Valdes-Scantling, Marquez
WR Wilson Jr., Cedrick
TE Moreau, Foster
QB Rattler, Spencer
RB Miller, Kendre
FB Prentice, Adam
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
WR Evans, Mike
WR McMillan, Jalen
WR Miller, Ryan
TE Durham, Payne
QB Mayfield, Baker
RB Irving, Bucky
Statistical Leaders
New Orleans Saints
Passing: D. Carr (2145)
Rushing: A. Kamara (950)
Receiving: A. Kamara (543)
Touchdowns: A. Kamara (8)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Passing: B. Mayfield (4279)
Rushing: B. Irving (1033)
Receiving: M. Evans (915)
Touchdowns: M. Evans (11)
Coaches:
New Orleans Saints: Darren Rizzi (Interim)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Todd Bowles (3rd season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
