Game Time: 9:00 PM ET, Friday, February 4th, 2022 

Venue:  Ball Arena, Denver, Colorado

Where to Watch:  NBA League Pass

DraftKings:  Spread: Denver -5.5; 

BetMGM:  Spread:  NL

VegasInsider:  Spread: Denver -5.5; O/U 222.5

WynnBet: Spread:  Denver -6; O/U 222.5

Pelicans: 19-32, 11th place Western Conference

Nuggets:  28-23, 6th place Western Conference

A Western Conference battle between a rudderless doormat of a team and a Determined but weakened by injury Goliath.  The New Orleans Pelicans are doormats… even worse they are doormats with poor leadership.  It’s no secret that the Pelicans are owned by a family/group that prefers the Football team they also own to all else.  Basketball is an afterthought.  Basketball is simply more local bargaining power and bragging rights.  Basketball is suffering.  2 ½ seasons ago the New Orleans Pelicans were an awful team about to miss the playoffs yet again except they had what many considered to be the best Power Forward in the game… a top five player in Anthony Davis.  Anthony Davis was sitting out and the Pelicans were rapidly losing games.  They then got pressured into trading Anthony Davis to the Los Angeles Lakers for a big package of players and picks.  They had no problem with the trade as they were in possession of the #1 pick in the draft and used it on PF Zion Williamson, whom many said was the best pro prospect since Blake Griffin… a regular Charles Barkley!  Only now it’s 2 seasons later and Zion is out for seemingly ever with injury, again… looking a lot like he may not play at all this season… and also that his weight might prevent him from ever achieving full health in his lower extremities to match his best on court ability (which sadly is jumping)... and they are rapidly losing games.  They are again going nowhere, but the draft lottery and again ownership will make all the wrong moves… unless this year’s NBA draft happens to have a Quarterback that could play on the Saints.      The Nuggets have last season’s MVP in C Nikola Jokic who may just be the current best player in the game.  He leads a team that has lost all it’s weapons except himself to injury.  He wills the Nuggets to wins with jaw-dropping statlines that has him leading the team in points, assists, rebounds, steals, and blocks… and FG percentage… and awesomeness.  The Denver Nuggets are a one-man show, but a pretty good one at that.  Of course one great player does not make a contender… and the Nuggets have dropped in the very tough Western Conference from top-3 to sixth in the standings.  Without SG Jamal Murray and PF Michael Porter JR ( who are out with season ending injuries) the Nuggets will be an easy out in the playoffs… especially now that the grind is taking a toll on the mighty Jokic who is now missing games with toe soreness.  The Nuggets are 2/3rds of the way through a lost season.  If something BIG doesn’t happen at the trade deadline (how could it really?… all their good pieces are out) then the season is essentially over.  There is no way Jokic by himself could take down the Phoenix Suns, the Golden State Warriors, or the Memphis Grizzlies… so what’s the point of it all?

The New Orleans Pelicans have won 4 of their last ten games.  They beat the Detroit Pistons, the Indiana Pacers, the New York Knicks, and the Los Angeles Clippers.  The type of teams that the Pelicans manage to beat is indicative of a team that will end up draft 7-11th.  They won’t lose enough for one of the top picks… but they won’t win enough to even crack the play-in tournament. SF Brandon Ingram leads the team in points and assists, Brandon feels like the only part of the Anthony Davis trade that worked out for the Pelicans after they botched the #4 pick by trading it back to draft the very impactful C Jaxson Hayes.  2020 1st round pick PG Kira Lewis JR is sidelined with a torn ACL and MCL sprain and will miss the rest of the season along with Zion. 2019 1st round pick (#17) SG Nickeil Alexander-Walker ( a cousin of OKC PG Shai Goilgeous-Alexander) hasn’t yet cracked the starting line-up but does chip in 12.9 ppg with 3 rbs, 3 asts.  So this is a team with a ton of young talent that simply is either not developing because they are not playing… or not playing because they are not healthy.  Either way the roster is a bit slim.

The Denver Nuggets have won 6 of their last 10 games… all on the considerable shoulders of Nikola Jokic.  They have dropped the last two games as Nikola has missed time with toe soreness.  The last two losses were to the Utah Jazz and the Minnesota Timberwolves… things are usually going bad for any team that loses to the Timberwolves.  PF Aaron Gordon also sat out a game with left hamstring soreness making him only Probable against the Pelicans.  The injury list is the story here… I can throw you no stats that would or should convince you to bet on the Denver Nuggets.  In fact just look below at the Injury report and you may be forced to drop $50 on the Pelicans side of the ledger… advice I have very rarely ever given.

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The Pelicans are 19-32 on the season, but 24-26-1 ATS.  They have logged 20 Overs, 30 Unders, and 1 Push.  They are 8-19 in road games.

The Nuggets are 28-23 on the season, but 21-29-1 ATS.  They have notched 28 Overs, 23 Unders, and 1 Push.  They are 13-9 in home games.

Our prediction for Friday, February 4th is….  Pelicans 102 - Nuggets 100

As awkwardly as this is the Pelicans will get a close win.  It’s basically an empty roster against an empty roster.  So what we have to ask is can SF Brandon Ingram and C Jonas Valanciunas of the Pelicans beat PF Aaron Gordon and PG Monte Morris of the Nuggets?  The answer to that question is yes.  The thing you have to watch is whether C Nikola Jokic plays or not as he is listed as probable with that toe soreness.  So wait on the bet until right before game time… see what is being said.  If Jokic misses the game bet on the Pelicans… If Jokic plays bet Nuggets.  If that is too much work than for goodness sake bet the Under and forget about it.

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The Pelicans are 3-0 ATS versus Denver at Denver the last 3 seasons.

3 of 3 games have gone Under.

Pelicans: SG Garrett Temple Out ** SG Josh Hart Out ** PF Zion Williamson (foot) Out indefinitely ** PG Kira Lewis Jr (knee) Out indefinitely ** C Willy Hernangomez Out

Nuggets:  C Nikola Jokic (toe) Prob ** PF Aaron Gordon (hamstring) Prob ** C Demarcus Cousins (foot) Quest ** PF Michael Porter Jr (back) Out for season ** SG Jamal Murray (knee) Out

Pelicans: PF Jaxson Hayes, SF Brandon Ingram, C Jonas Valanciunas, PG Devonte Graham, SG Herbert Jones

Nuggets: SF Will Barton, PF Zeke Nnaji, C Jeff Green, PG Monte Morris, SG Austin Rivers 

Pelicans

Points: Brandon Ingram 22.5

Assists: Brandon Ingram 5.2

Rebounds: Jonas Valanciunas 12

Steals: Herbert Jones 1.5

Blocks: Herbert Jones 0.9

Nuggets

Points: Nikola Jokic 25.9

Assists: Nikola Jokic 7.8

Rebounds: Nikola Jokic 13.8

Steals: Nikola Jokic 1.4

Blocks: Nikola Jokic 0.7

Pelicans: Willie Green.  Coach Green had hoped he would be coaching Zion Williamson when he took this job before this season.

Nuggets: Michael Malone.  Coach Malone has an NBA MVP candidate on his roster and unfortunately bad luck has taken away most everything else.