by Rod Pearson
Friday, Dec 20, 2024
Game Time: 4:25 pm ET, Sunday, December 22, 2024
Venue: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
Where to Watch: CBS
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Patriots +14, Bills -14; Over/Under: 46.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Patriots +14, Bills -14; Over/Under: 46.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Patriots +14, Bills -14; Over/Under: 46.5 points
Season Record
New England Patriots: 3-11 (4th place, AFC East)
Buffalo Bills: 11-3 (1st place, AFC East)
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New England Patriots: lost their last game on the road against the Arizona Cardinals 30-17.
Buffalo Bills: won their last game on the road against the Detroit Lions 48-42.
New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills Preview and Analysis
The Patriots are entering this game with a 3-11 record overall and they have a 1-3 record in their divisional games too. They are 1-5 in their home games, 2-5 in their road games, and they are also 0-1 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against the Arizona Cardinals 30-17. Drake Maye was the starting QB and he completed 19/23 passes for 202 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. Rhamondre Stevenson led the team in rushing yards with 69. Kendrick Bourne led the receivers with 44 receiving yards on 3 receptions. Kyle Dugger led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 4 assisted tackles while no one on the defense recorded a sack for them. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
The Bills are entering this game with an 11-3 record overall and they have a 3-0 record in their divisional games too. They are 6-0 in their home games, 5-3 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against the Detroit Lions 48-42. Josh Allen was the starting QB and he completed 23/34 passes for 362 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. James Cook led the team in rushing yards with 105 and 2 TDs. Ty Johnson led the receivers with 114 receiving yards on 5 receptions. Taron Johnson led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while Christian Benford, Ed Oliver, and Greg Rousseau each led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
Patriots vs Bills Prediction
The current betting odds have the Bills listed as a 14 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Bills have looked really good in their games this season with their 11-3 record overall which has them right at the top of the AFC East with one of the best records in the entire NFL. They have already clinched their division, but they are still looking to get the number 1 seed in the AFC. They have looked great on their home field all season with their 6-0 home record and they are coming off a monster win in Detroit in their last one, beating the Lions 48-42, and that win is going to give them momentum going forward. Meanwhile, the Patriots have looked terrible in their games this season with their 3-11 record overall which has them right at the bottom of the AFC East with one of the best records in the entire NFL. They are coming off a 30-17 loss to the Cardinals in their last one and their defense has looked terrible over the last few weeks. The Patriots really have nothing left to play for this season and their defense isn't going to stop this Bills offense that has put up over 40 points in their last 2 games. The Bills usually blow out bad teams in their home games too, and that is exactly what they are getting here. The best way to place a bet here is on the Bills to cover the spread in this game.
Patriots Bills Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Sunday, December 22, 2024 (4:25 pm ET start time) is Bills 38 Patriots 10.
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NFL Betting Trends
New England Patriots: 17-28 ATS in all games. 11-22 ATS as an underdog. 3-15 ATS in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points. 22-13 OVER as an underdog. 7-3 OVER vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. 13-3 OVER versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.65 yards/play or more.
Buffalo Bills: 10-4 ATS off a road win. 4-1 ATS after a 2 game road trip. 14-8 ATS after playing their last game on the road. 9-5 OVER in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5. 9-5 OVER off a road win.
Key Injuries
New England Patriots: J. Tavai (LB) Injured - Groin. J. Hasty (RB) Injured - Ankle. A. Jennings (LB) Injured - Knee. C. Wallace (T) Injured - Ankle. D. Wise (DE) Injured - Foot. M. Jones (CB) Injured - Hip. J. Baker (WR) Injured - Concussion. C. Gonzalez (CB) Injured - Shoulder. V. Lowe (T) Injured - Shoulder. C. Strange (G) Injured - Knee. K. Dugger (SAF) Injured - Ankle. C. Barmore (DT) Injured - NIR - Personal.
Buffalo Bills: D. Dawkins (T) Injured - NIR-Personal. B. Spector (LB) Injured - Calf. D. Smoot (DE) Injured - Wrist. M. Milano (LB) Injured - Biceps. C. Samuel (WR) Injured - Ribs. A. Cooper (WR) Injured - Wrist. R. Douglas (CB) Injured - Knee. Q. Morris (TE) Injured - Shoulder. D. Hamlin (SAF) Injured - Ribs. T. Rapp (SAF) Injured - Neck. D. Williams (LB) Injured - Elbow. D. Kincaid (TE) Injured - Knee. S. Brown (T) Injured - Neck. D. Carter (DT) Injured - Wrist.
Notable Quotes
“We're not a good enough football team to be able to go backwards and overcome those long-yardage situations that we've seen all season." - Jerod Mayo after his team’s loss against the Cardinals in their last game.
“It's rare air up there with the best teams. That's how we’re going to have to play every week moving forward.” - Sean McDermott after his team’s win against the Lions in their last game.
Starting Lineups
New England Patriots
WR Bourne, Kendrick
WR Boutte, Kayshon
WR Douglas, DeMario
TE Henry, Hunter
QB Maye, Drake
RB Stevenson, Rhamondre
Buffalo Bills
WR Coleman, Keon
WR Cooper, Amari
WR Shakir, Khalil
TE Kincaid, Dalton
QB Allen, Josh
RB Cook, James
FB Gilliam, Reggie
Statistical Leaders
New England Patriots
Passing: D. Maye (1898)
Rushing: R. Stevenson (740)
Receiving: H. Henry (635)
Touchdowns: R. Stevenson (7)
Buffalo Bills
Passing: J. Allen (3395)
Rushing: J. Cook (828)
Receiving: K. Shakir (774)
Touchdowns: J. Cook (14)
Coaches:
New England Patriots: Jerod Mayo (1st season)
Buffalo Bills: Sean McDermott (8th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
